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2027 board brief

This is the proposed finish order for scheduling, based on last year's results adjusted for graduation and returning players. Review the flagged programs below before the vote; everyone else is a straightforward hold unless you disagree.

Open full board → How the model works

Teams

36

Need review

12

Ready to affirm

24

High priority

1

Recommended finish order

Click a team for the full breakdown — roster, awards, and departing players.

# Team Prior Δ Why
1 Eureka review 1 — Several award-winning players graduating Details →
2 Ladue Horton Watkins review 2 — Several award-winning players graduating Details →
3 MICDS review 5 — Several award-winning players graduating Details →
4 John Burroughs review 3 — Many seniors leaving with less production coming back; also several award-winning players graduating Details →
5 Cor Jesu Academy review 4 — Several award-winning players graduating Details →
6 St. Joseph's Academy review 6 — Several award-winning players graduating Details →
7 Westminster 9 — Graduation looks manageable; holding near last year's finish Details →
8 Visitation Academy review 7 -1 Many seniors leaving with less production coming back; also several award-winning players graduating Details →
9 O'Fallon 8 +1 Turnover projected to move them down 1 spot Details →
10 Lafayette 11 — Graduation looks manageable; holding near last year's finish Details →
11 St. Dominic 10 — Graduation looks manageable; holding near last year's finish Details →
12 Northwest review 12 — Several award-winning players graduating Details →
13 Villa Duchesne review 13 — Several award-winning players graduating Details →
14 Wentzville 15 — Graduation looks manageable; holding near last year's finish Details →
15 Marquette 14 — Graduation looks manageable; holding near last year's finish Details →
16 Rockwood Summit 16 — Graduation looks manageable; holding near last year's finish Details →
17 Parkway West 17 — Graduation looks manageable; holding near last year's finish Details →
18 Ursuline Academy 19 — Graduation looks manageable; holding near last year's finish Details →
19 Parkway South 18 — Graduation looks manageable; holding near last year's finish Details →
20 Webster Groves 20 — Graduation looks manageable; holding near last year's finish Details →
21 Lindbergh 21 — Graduation looks manageable; holding near last year's finish Details →
22 Kirkwood 23 — Graduation looks manageable; holding near last year's finish Details →
23 Francis Howell North 25 — Graduation looks manageable; holding near last year's finish Details →
24 Francis Howell Central 26 — Graduation looks manageable; holding near last year's finish Details →
25 Nerinx Hall review 22 -1 Big shift from last year's finish — confirm the roster change is real; also many seniors leaving with less production coming back Details →
26 Francis Howell 24 +1 Turnover projected to move them down 1 spot Details →
27 Parkway Central 28 — Graduation looks manageable; holding near last year's finish Details →
28 Clayton 27 — Graduation looks manageable; holding near last year's finish Details →
29 Notre Dame 31 — Graduation looks manageable; holding near last year's finish Details →
30 Oakville 30 — Graduation looks manageable; holding near last year's finish Details →
31 Fox High School review 29 — Many seniors leaving with less production coming back; also several award-winning players graduating Details →
32 Pattonville 34 — Graduation looks manageable; holding near last year's finish Details →
33 Incarnate Word 32 — Graduation looks manageable; holding near last year's finish Details →
34 Parkway North review 33 — Many seniors leaving with less production coming back Details →
35 Edwardsville 36 — Graduation looks manageable; holding near last year's finish Details →
36 Belleville West 37 — Graduation looks manageable; holding near last year's finish Details →

Decisions to make before the vote

Grouped by the question the board needs to answer.

Confirm big moves from last year

Do we believe this program moved this much, or should we hold closer to last year's finish?

  • #25 Nerinx Hall high priority
    • · Finished #22 last year; model recommends #25
    • · That is up 1 spot from last year
    • · About 11% of last year's production is returning
    • · Roughly 46% of team impact is walking off the field
    • · Recognized award winners are among the graduates
    • · Model adjustment: program history nudged rank up, program history held them up, blended with prior finish

Heavy graduation — hidden talent?

Is there underclass talent or a transfer the stats don't capture yet?

  • #25 Nerinx Hall high priority
    • · Finished #22 last year; model recommends #25
    • · That is up 1 spot from last year
    • · About 11% of last year's production is returning
    • · Roughly 46% of team impact is walking off the field
    • · Recognized award winners are among the graduates
    • · Model adjustment: program history nudged rank up, program history held them up, blended with prior finish
  • #4 John Burroughs
    • · Finished #3 last year; model recommends #4
    • · About 15% of last year's production is returning
    • · Roughly 44% of team impact is walking off the field
    • · Recognized award winners are among the graduates
    • · Model adjustment: program history held them up
  • #8 Visitation Academy
    • · Finished #7 last year; model recommends #8
    • · That is up 1 spot from last year
    • · About 22% of last year's production is returning
    • · Roughly 45% of team impact is walking off the field
    • · Recognized award winners are among the graduates
    • · Model adjustment: strong returning feeder group
  • #31 Fox High School
    • · Finished #29 last year; model recommends #31
    • · About 17% of last year's production is returning
    • · Roughly 45% of team impact is walking off the field
    • · Recognized award winners are among the graduates
    • · Model adjustment: late underclass scoring surge
  • #34 Parkway North
    • · Finished #33 last year; model recommends #34
    • · About 34% of last year's production is returning
    • · Roughly 34% of team impact is walking off the field

Award winners leaving

How much should departing All-Conference and All-State players move the ranking?

  • #25 Nerinx Hall high priority
    • · Finished #22 last year; model recommends #25
    • · That is up 1 spot from last year
    • · About 11% of last year's production is returning
    • · Roughly 46% of team impact is walking off the field
    • · Recognized award winners are among the graduates
    • · Model adjustment: program history nudged rank up, program history held them up, blended with prior finish
  • #1 Eureka
    • · Finished #1 last year; model recommends #1
    • · About 68% of last year's production is returning
    • · Recognized award winners are among the graduates
  • #2 Ladue Horton Watkins
    • · Finished #2 last year; model recommends #2
    • · About 51% of last year's production is returning
    • · Roughly 30% of team impact is walking off the field
    • · Recognized award winners are among the graduates
  • #3 MICDS
    • · Finished #5 last year; model recommends #3
    • · About 78% of last year's production is returning
    • · Recognized award winners are among the graduates
  • #4 John Burroughs
    • · Finished #3 last year; model recommends #4
    • · About 15% of last year's production is returning
    • · Roughly 44% of team impact is walking off the field
    • · Recognized award winners are among the graduates
    • · Model adjustment: program history held them up
  • #5 Cor Jesu Academy
    • · Finished #4 last year; model recommends #5
    • · About 48% of last year's production is returning
    • · Roughly 35% of team impact is walking off the field
    • · Recognized award winners are among the graduates
    • · Model adjustment: draw-control talent returning
  • #6 St. Joseph's Academy
    • · Finished #6 last year; model recommends #6
    • · About 58% of last year's production is returning
    • · Recognized award winners are among the graduates
  • #8 Visitation Academy
    • · Finished #7 last year; model recommends #8
    • · That is up 1 spot from last year
    • · About 22% of last year's production is returning
    • · Roughly 45% of team impact is walking off the field
    • · Recognized award winners are among the graduates
    • · Model adjustment: strong returning feeder group
  • #12 Northwest
    • · Finished #12 last year; model recommends #12
    • · About 38% of last year's production is returning
    • · Roughly 36% of team impact is walking off the field
    • · Recognized award winners are among the graduates
  • #13 Villa Duchesne
    • · Finished #13 last year; model recommends #13
    • · About 70% of last year's production is returning
    • · Recognized award winners are among the graduates
    • · Model adjustment: draw-control talent returning
  • #31 Fox High School
    • · Finished #29 last year; model recommends #31
    • · About 17% of last year's production is returning
    • · Roughly 45% of team impact is walking off the field
    • · Recognized award winners are among the graduates
    • · Model adjustment: late underclass scoring surge

Legacy programs stepping back

Does program history warrant keeping them higher than the model suggests?

  • #25 Nerinx Hall high priority
    • · Finished #22 last year; model recommends #25
    • · That is up 1 spot from last year
    • · About 11% of last year's production is returning
    • · Roughly 46% of team impact is walking off the field
    • · Recognized award winners are among the graduates
    • · Model adjustment: program history nudged rank up, program history held them up, blended with prior finish

Results vs roster (optional)

Last year's game margins point a different direction — eye-test check only, not a vote blocker.

  • #25 Nerinx Hall high priority
    • · Finished #22 last year; model recommends #25
    • · That is up 1 spot from last year
    • · About 11% of last year's production is returning
    • · Roughly 46% of team impact is walking off the field
    • · Recognized award winners are among the graduates
    • · Model adjustment: program history nudged rank up, program history held them up, blended with prior finish
  • #13 Villa Duchesne
    • · Finished #13 last year; model recommends #13
    • · About 70% of last year's production is returning
    • · Recognized award winners are among the graduates
    • · Model adjustment: draw-control talent returning
  • #14 Wentzville
    • · Finished #15 last year; model recommends #14
    • · About 70% of last year's production is returning
  • #15 Marquette
    • · Finished #14 last year; model recommends #15
    • · About 53% of last year's production is returning
    • · Roughly 29% of team impact is walking off the field
    • · Recognized award winners are among the graduates
  • #19 Parkway South
    • · Finished #18 last year; model recommends #19
    • · About 38% of last year's production is returning
    • · Roughly 38% of team impact is walking off the field
    • · Recognized award winners are among the graduates
  • #24 Francis Howell Central
    • · Finished #26 last year; model recommends #24
    • · About 65% of last year's production is returning
    • · Recognized award winners are among the graduates
  • #30 Oakville
    • · Finished #30 last year; model recommends #30
    • · About 39% of last year's production is returning
    • · Roughly 34% of team impact is walking off the field
    • · Recognized award winners are among the graduates
  • #31 Fox High School
    • · Finished #29 last year; model recommends #31
    • · About 17% of last year's production is returning
    • · Roughly 45% of team impact is walking off the field
    • · Recognized award winners are among the graduates
    • · Model adjustment: late underclass scoring surge
  • #35 Edwardsville
    • · Finished #36 last year; model recommends #35
    • · About 40% of last year's production is returning
    • · Roughly 27% of team impact is walking off the field

No review needed (24 teams)

The model sees no red flags. Affirm unless you have local knowledge that says otherwise.

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