Kirkwood
prior #23 · recommended #22 · final #22 legacy 0.91Margin strength
-9.7
vs top-16 avg -9.7
Projected margin
-10.0
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.441
as of 2026-05-30
Offense
56.44
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
56.71
domain stat
Possession
60.99
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #23
- Recommended (model)
- #22
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #22
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #22
- Projected margin rating
- -10.0
- Departure loss %
- 2.9%
- Returning production share
- 81.9%
- Departure loss
- 2.9%
- Seniors departing
- 10
- Awards points
- +6 returning · −3 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.91
Awards
Departing
Kelly Boudreau (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention); Lily Dodd-Ruesing (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Riley Devers (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention)
Returning
Claire Grote (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Mia Campbell (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Caroline Huey (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Tiernan Luby (all conference: Green; 2nd Team)
Departing players (2025-26)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lily Dodd-Ruesing | — | 10 | 8.4% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 0.0% | 2.0% |
| Riley Devers | — | 10 | 8.6% | 4.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.8% |
| Anna Ullery | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Issaline Tiburzi | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Boudreau | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madelyn Fogle | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vanessa Cabassa | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2025-26)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claire Grote | offense | 16 | 58 | 29.9% | 33.6% | 8.8% | 0.0% / 8.8% | 13.8 |
| Mia Campbell | offense | 16 | 56 | 30.4% | 30.6% | 9.6% | 0.0% / 9.6% | 13.5 |
| Caroline Huey | goalie | 16 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 42.0% | 42.0% / 0.0% | 8.3 |
| Tiernan Luby | offense | 16 | 22 | 13.8% | 21.9% | 3.4% | 0.0% / 3.4% | 7.4 |
| Lily Dodd-Ruesing | offense | 9 | 14 | 8.4% | 10.7% | 2.4% | 0.0% / 2.4% | 4.1 |
| Meg Parsons | goalie | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% / 0.0% | 2.6 |
| Riley Devers | offense | 14 | 14 | 8.6% | 0.0% | 2.7% | 0.0% / 2.7% | 2.2 |
| Gianna Smith | offense | 15 | 10 | 5.4% | 0.0% | 2.3% | 0.0% / 2.3% | 1.5 |
| Nico Deblasi | defense | 13 | 1 | 0.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 0.0% / 3.1% | 1.2 |
| Addie Glaser | offense | 10 | 4 | 1.9% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% / 1.5% | 0.7 |
| Kelly Boudreau | defense | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.5% | 0.0% / 2.5% | 0.5 |
| Vanessa Cabassa | defense | 8 | 1 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 2.3% | 0.0% / 2.3% | 0.5 |
| Elsa Bischoff | offense | 7 | 2 | 0.8% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% / 1.2% | 0.4 |
| Anna Ullery | defense | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 0.0% / 1.6% | 0.3 |
| Ella Woods | defense | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% / 1.1% | 0.2 |
| Issaline Tiburzi | defense | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% / 0.8% | 0.1 |
| Natalie Swarts | defense | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 0.1 |
| Madelyn Fogle | defense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 0.1 |
| Kali Hildebrandt | defense | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 0.1 |
| Carly Codd | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.1 |
Projected matchups (2027)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Eureka | -9.3 | — |
| Wentzville | -8.9 | — |
| MICDS | -7.9 | — |
| Westminster | -6.3 | — |
| John Burroughs | -5.8 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -5.6 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -5.3 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -5.1 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -5.0 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 4.1 | — |
| Edwardsville | -3.8 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 3.6 | — |
| Notre Dame | 2.8 | — |
| Oakville | -2.4 | — |
| Lafayette | -2.1 | — |
| Clayton | 2.1 | — |
| Fox High School | -2.0 | — |
| Parkway North | 1.7 | — |
| O'Fallon | -1.6 | — |
| Parkway Central | 1.5 | — |
| Belleville West | 1.3 | — |
| Parkway South | 1.3 | — |
| Northwest | -1.1 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | -1.1 | — |
| Francis Howell | 0.8 | — |
| Parkway West | -0.7 | — |
| St. Dominic | -0.6 | — |
| Pattonville | 0.6 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | -0.6 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 0.6 | — |
| Webster Groves | -0.5 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 0.5 | — |
| Marquette | 0.2 | — |
| Francis Howell North | -0.2 | — |
| Lindbergh | 0.0 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2027,
"team_name": "Kirkwood",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 23,
"current_composite_rank": 29,
"recommended_rank": 22,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": -1,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 55.92,
"score_drop": 2.9,
"returning_production_share": 0.819,
"departure_loss_pct": 2.9,
"legacy_prior": 0.912,
"seniors_count": 10,
"awards_points": 9,
"departing_awards_points": 3,
"returning_awards_points": 6,
"flag_codes": null,
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 0,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": null,
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 22,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": 22,
"actual_finish_rank": null,
"projection_error": null,
"is_backtest": false,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"Kirkwood\", \"avg_margin\": \"-0.53\", \"board_note\": \"Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"22\", \"flag_codes\": \"\", \"flag_count\": \"0\", \"margin_std\": \"7.98\", \"score_drop\": \"2.9\", \"top8_games\": \"1\", \"margin_wins\": \"6\", \"top16_games\": \"3\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.912\", \"margin_games\": \"15\", \"awards_points\": \"9\", \"margin_losses\": \"9\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"10\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"0-1\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"0.1\", \"departing_awards\": \"Kelly Boudreau (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention); Lily Dodd-Ruesing (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Riley Devers (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention)\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"6.2\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"22\", \"returning_awards\": \"Claire Grote (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Mia Campbell (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Caroline Huey (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Tiernan Luby (all conference: Green; 2nd Team)\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.28\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"-1\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"-0.53\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"22\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"23\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"-13.0\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"2.9\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.851\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"-9.67\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"6.66\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"4.1\", \"projected_composite\": \"55.92\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"-1\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.851\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"29\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.922\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"3\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-10.02\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"6\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"97.09\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"22\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.92\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.819\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"22\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 22,
"projected_margin_rating": -10.02,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": -9.67,
"projected_turnover_index": 97.09,
"departing_awards": "Kelly Boudreau (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention); Lily Dodd-Ruesing (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Riley Devers (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention)",
"returning_awards": "Claire Grote (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Mia Campbell (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Caroline Huey (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Tiernan Luby (all conference: Green; 2nd Team)",
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "kirkwood",
"effective_rank": 22,
"final_rank_resolved": 22
}