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Schedule risk matrix — 2027

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Pairwise expected margin (row − column). Cells with |margin| ≥ 10 are flagged blowouts.

Forward 2027 outlook from 2025-26 stats. Schedule pairs are isolated from the 2026 backtest matrix.

Margins use k = least-squares fit on MO-vs-MO games from run_meta.json. Read across a row: positive cells are projected wins for the row team. Hover any cell to see exact values.

Shift watchlist teams (amber row labels) need slotting review — slot_rank uses the model when flagged; others stay at prior finish. Core override rows (★) have heavy turnover or large model moves.

Shift watchlist — slotting review

19 teams flagged for non-default slotting.

Team Prior Model Slot Signals Tier
★ Nerinx Hall 22 25 25 talent_loss_rebuild;margin_overrated;low_returning_heavy_loss Tier 5
★ Westminster 9 7 7 sleeper_talent_pool Tier 1
★ Fox High School 29 31 31 talent_loss_rebuild;low_returning_heavy_loss Tier 2
★ Francis Howell Central 26 24 24 sleeper_talent_pool Tier 2
★ Pattonville 34 32 32 sleeper_talent_pool Tier 4
★ Wentzville 15 14 14 sleeper_talent_pool Tier 1
★ John Burroughs 3 4 4 talent_loss_rebuild;low_returning_heavy_loss Tier 1
★ Visitation Academy 7 8 8 talent_loss_rebuild;low_returning_heavy_loss Tier 1
★ Belleville West 37 36 36 sleeper_talent_pool Tier 4
★ Parkway South 18 19 19 talent_loss_rebuild;margin_overrated Tier 4
★ Parkway North 33 34 34 talent_loss_rebuild;low_returning_heavy_loss Tier 4
Cor Jesu Academy 4 5 5 margin_overrated Tier 2
O'Fallon 8 9 9 margin_overrated Tier 2
St. Dominic 10 11 11 margin_overrated Tier 3
Marquette 14 15 15 margin_overrated Tier 3
Ursuline Academy 19 18 18 margin_overrated Tier 4
Clayton 27 28 28 margin_overrated Tier 5
Ladue Horton Watkins 2 2 2 margin_overrated Tier 1
Villa Duchesne 13 13 13 margin_overrated Tier 4

Schedule clusters

Fixed tiers of ~8 teams on projected margin. Sort order in matrix follows cluster slot ranks.

Tier 1 (8)

  1. Eureka slot 1
  2. Wentzville slot 14
  3. MICDS slot 5
  4. Westminster slot 7
  5. John Burroughs slot 4
  6. St. Joseph's Academy slot 6
  7. Ladue Horton Watkins slot 2
  8. Visitation Academy slot 8

Tier 2 (8)

  1. Cor Jesu Academy slot 5
  2. Edwardsville slot 36
  3. Oakville slot 30
  4. Lafayette slot 11
  5. Fox High School slot 31
  6. O'Fallon slot 9
  7. Northwest slot 12
  8. Francis Howell Central slot 24

Tier 3 (8)

  1. Parkway West slot 17
  2. St. Dominic slot 11
  3. Rockwood Summit slot 16
  4. Webster Groves slot 20
  5. Francis Howell North slot 25
  6. Kirkwood slot 23
  7. Lindbergh slot 21
  8. Marquette slot 15

Tier 4 (8)

  1. Ursuline Academy slot 18
  2. Pattonville slot 32
  3. Villa Duchesne slot 13
  4. Francis Howell slot 24
  5. Belleville West slot 36
  6. Parkway South slot 19
  7. Parkway Central slot 28
  8. Parkway North slot 34

Tier 5 (4)

  1. Clayton slot 28
  2. Notre Dame slot 31
  3. Nerinx Hall slot 25
  4. Incarnate Word slot 32
Row \ Col
Eureka
Wentzville
MICDS
Westminster
John Burroughs
St. Joseph's Academy
Ladue Horton Watkins
Visitation Academy
Cor Jesu Academy
Edwardsville
Oakville
Lafayette
Fox High School
O'Fallon
Northwest
Francis Howell Central
Parkway West
St. Dominic
Rockwood Summit
Webster Groves
Francis Howell North
Kirkwood
Lindbergh
Marquette
Ursuline Academy
Pattonville
Villa Duchesne
Francis Howell
Belleville West
Parkway South
Parkway Central
Parkway North
Clayton
Notre Dame
Nerinx Hall
Incarnate Word
Eureka · +0 +1 +3 +3 +4 +4 +4 +4 +6 +7 +7 +7 +8 +8 +8 +8 +9 +9 +9 +9 +9 +9 +10 +10 +10 +10 +10 +11 +11 +11 +11 +11 +12 +13 +13
★ Wentzville -0 · +1 +3 +3 +3 +4 +4 +4 +5 +6 +7 +7 +7 +8 +8 +8 +8 +8 +8 +9 +9 +9 +9 +9 +9 +10 +10 +10 +10 +10 +10 +11 +12 +12 +13
MICDS -1 -1 · +2 +2 +2 +3 +3 +3 +4 +6 +6 +6 +6 +7 +7 +7 +7 +7 +7 +8 +8 +8 +8 +8 +8 +9 +9 +9 +9 +10 +10 +10 +11 +12 +12
★ Westminster -3 -3 -2 · +0 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +4 +4 +4 +5 +5 +5 +6 +6 +6 +6 +6 +6 +6 +6 +7 +7 +7 +7 +8 +8 +8 +8 +8 +9 +10 +10
★ John Burroughs -3 -3 -2 -0 · +0 +0 +1 +1 +2 +3 +4 +4 +4 +5 +5 +5 +5 +5 +5 +6 +6 +6 +6 +6 +6 +6 +7 +7 +7 +7 +8 +8 +9 +10 +10
St. Joseph's Academy -4 -3 -2 -1 -0 · +0 +0 +0 +2 +3 +3 +4 +4 +4 +4 +5 +5 +5 +5 +5 +6 +6 +6 +6 +6 +6 +6 +7 +7 +7 +7 +8 +8 +9 +10
Ladue Horton Watkins -4 -4 -3 -1 -0 -0 · +0 +0 +2 +3 +3 +3 +4 +4 +4 +5 +5 +5 +5 +5 +5 +5 +6 +6 +6 +6 +6 +7 +7 +7 +7 +7 +8 +9 +9
★ Visitation Academy -4 -4 -3 -1 -1 -0 -0 · +0 +1 +3 +3 +3 +4 +4 +4 +4 +4 +4 +5 +5 +5 +5 +5 +6 +6 +6 +6 +6 +6 +7 +7 +7 +8 +9 +9
Cor Jesu Academy -4 -4 -3 -1 -1 -0 -0 -0 · +1 +3 +3 +3 +3 +4 +4 +4 +4 +4 +4 +5 +5 +5 +5 +6 +6 +6 +6 +6 +6 +6 +7 +7 +8 +9 +9
Edwardsville -6 -5 -4 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 · +1 +2 +2 +2 +3 +3 +3 +3 +3 +3 +4 +4 +4 +4 +4 +4 +4 +5 +5 +5 +5 +6 +6 +7 +7 +8
Oakville -7 -6 -6 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -1 · +0 +0 +1 +1 +1 +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 +3 +3 +3 +3 +3 +4 +4 +4 +4 +4 +5 +6 +6
Lafayette -7 -7 -6 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -0 · +0 +0 +1 +1 +1 +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 +3 +3 +3 +3 +3 +4 +4 +4 +4 +5 +6 +6
★ Fox High School -7 -7 -6 -4 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 -0 -0 · +0 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 +3 +3 +3 +3 +3 +4 +4 +4 +5 +6 +6
O'Fallon -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -4 -4 -4 -3 -2 -1 -0 -0 · +0 +0 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 +3 +3 +3 +3 +4 +4 +5 +6
Northwest -8 -8 -7 -5 -5 -4 -4 -4 -4 -3 -1 -1 -1 -0 · +0 +0 +0 +0 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 +3 +3 +3 +4 +5 +5
★ Francis Howell Central -8 -8 -7 -5 -5 -4 -4 -4 -4 -3 -1 -1 -1 -0 +0 · +0 +0 +0 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 +3 +3 +3 +4 +5 +5
Parkway West -8 -8 -7 -6 -5 -5 -5 -4 -4 -3 -2 -1 -1 -1 -0 -0 · +0 +0 +0 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 +3 +4 +4 +5
St. Dominic -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -5 -5 -4 -4 -3 -2 -2 -1 -1 -0 -0 -0 · +0 +0 +0 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +2 +2 +2 +3 +3 +4 +5
Rockwood Summit -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -5 -5 -4 -4 -3 -2 -2 -1 -1 -0 -0 -0 +0 · +0 +0 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +2 +2 +2 +3 +3 +4 +5
Webster Groves -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -5 -5 -5 -4 -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -0 -0 -0 · +0 +0 +0 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +2 +2 +2 +3 +3 +4 +5
Francis Howell North -9 -9 -8 -6 -6 -5 -5 -5 -5 -4 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -0 -0 -0 · +0 +0 +0 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 +3 +4 +4
Kirkwood -9 -9 -8 -6 -6 -6 -5 -5 -5 -4 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -0 -0 · +0 +0 +0 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +2 +2 +3 +4 +4
Lindbergh -9 -9 -8 -6 -6 -6 -5 -5 -5 -4 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -0 -0 +0 · +0 +0 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +2 +2 +3 +4 +4
Marquette -10 -9 -8 -6 -6 -6 -6 -5 -5 -4 -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -0 -0 -0 · +0 +0 +0 +0 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +3 +3 +4
Ursuline Academy -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -6 -6 -6 -6 -4 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -0 -0 -0 · +0 +0 +0 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +2 +3 +4
★ Pattonville -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -6 -6 -6 -6 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -0 -0 · +0 +0 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +2 +3 +4
Villa Duchesne -10 -10 -9 -7 -6 -6 -6 -6 -6 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -0 -0 -0 · +0 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +3 +3
Francis Howell -10 -10 -9 -7 -7 -6 -6 -6 -6 -5 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -0 -0 -0 -0 · +0 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +3 +3
★ Belleville West -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -7 -7 -6 -6 -5 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -0 · +0 +0 +0 +1 +2 +2 +3
★ Parkway South -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -7 -7 -6 -6 -5 -4 -4 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -0 · +0 +0 +1 +2 +2 +3
Parkway Central -11 -10 -10 -8 -7 -7 -7 -7 -6 -5 -4 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -0 -0 · +0 +1 +1 +2 +3
★ Parkway North -11 -10 -10 -8 -8 -7 -7 -7 -7 -6 -4 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -0 -0 -0 · +0 +1 +2 +2
Clayton -11 -11 -10 -8 -8 -8 -7 -7 -7 -6 -4 -4 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -0 · +1 +2 +2
Notre Dame -12 -12 -11 -9 -9 -8 -8 -8 -8 -7 -5 -5 -5 -4 -4 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 · +1 +1
★ Nerinx Hall -13 -12 -12 -10 -10 -9 -9 -9 -9 -7 -6 -6 -6 -5 -5 -5 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 · +0
Incarnate Word -13 -13 -12 -10 -10 -10 -9 -9 -9 -8 -6 -6 -6 -6 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -1 -0 ·

Blowout-risk pairs

22 pairs with projected |margin| ≥ 10. Schedulers should consider avoiding these.

Team A Team B Margin (A − B) ΔPower
Belleville West Eureka -10.6 -17.62
Belleville West Wentzville -10.2 -16.92
Clayton Eureka -11.3 -18.91
Clayton MICDS -10.0 -16.69
Clayton Wentzville -10.9 -18.21
Eureka Francis Howell 10.1 16.75
Eureka Incarnate Word 13.3 22.23
Eureka Nerinx Hall 12.9 21.50
Eureka Notre Dame 12.1 20.17
Eureka Parkway Central 10.8 17.98
Eureka Parkway North 11.0 18.28
Eureka Parkway South 10.6 17.70
Incarnate Word MICDS -12.0 -20.01
Incarnate Word Wentzville -12.9 -21.53
Incarnate Word Westminster -10.4 -17.26
MICDS Nerinx Hall 11.6 19.28
MICDS Notre Dame 10.8 17.95
Nerinx Hall Wentzville -12.5 -20.80
Notre Dame Wentzville -11.7 -19.47
Parkway Central Wentzville -10.4 -17.28
Parkway North Wentzville -10.5 -17.58
Parkway South Wentzville -10.2 -17.00