Francis Howell North

prior #25 · recommended #23 · final #23 legacy 0.30

Margin strength

-9.3

vs top-16 avg -9.3

Projected margin

-9.8

after grad turnover

Rolling RPI

0.397

as of 2026-05-30

Offense

42.67

domain stat (not blended)

Defense

58.59

domain stat

Possession

54.93

domain stat

Why the model lands here

Prior finish: #25
Recommended (model): #23
Recommended (adjusted): #23
Margin # (diagnostic): #21
Projected margin rating: -9.8
Departure loss %: 3.5%
Returning production share: 91.5%
Departure loss: 3.5%
Seniors departing: 1
Awards points: +7 returning · −1 departing
Legacy prior: 0.30

Awards

Departing

Ariana Larsen (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention)

Returning

Bailey Cosby (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Morgan Conlon (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Mattie Gibbs (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Presley Jaques (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Zidian Walker (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention)

Departing players (2025-26)

Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.

Player	Position	Goals	SOS off share	Off loss	Pos loss	Def loss	% of team loss
Ariana Larsen	—	10	16.8%	12.6%	0.0%	2.1%	3.5%

Player impact (2025-26)

Player	Position	GP	Goals	Off SOS share	Pos SOS share	Def share	G / F	Composite pts
Mattie Gibbs	offense	13	31	36.0%	53.8%	10.5%	0.0% / 10.5%	16.4
Morgan Conlon	defense	13	0	0.0%	0.0%	55.1%	55.0% / 0.1%	11.3
Presley Jaques	offense	12	0	0.0%	33.0%	7.0%	0.0% / 7.0%	6.9
Bailey Cosby	offense	13	25	30.0%	0.7%	5.2%	0.0% / 5.2%	5.7
Ariana Larsen	offense	13	13	16.8%	3.3%	4.8%	0.0% / 4.8%	4.0
Zidian Walker	offense	12	10	10.2%	3.5%	3.4%	0.0% / 3.4%	2.8
Ally Freese	offense	13	2	2.8%	4.0%	3.5%	0.0% / 3.5%	1.8
Natalie Epplin	offense	8	1	1.3%	0.9%	0.9%	0.0% / 0.9%	0.5
Reagan Buschjost	offense	7	0	0.0%	0.7%	1.7%	0.0% / 1.7%	0.5
Kelsey Spoors	offense	7	1	1.7%	0.0%	1.0%	0.0% / 1.0%	0.5
Charleigh Olshwanger	offense	8	0	0.0%	0.0%	1.6%	0.0% / 1.6%	0.3
Lochlan Marable	offense	6	1	1.2%	0.0%	0.7%	0.0% / 0.7%	0.3
Lily Wardle	offense	6	0	0.0%	0.0%	1.2%	0.0% / 1.2%	0.3
Brynn Bray	offense	7	0	0.0%	0.0%	1.1%	0.0% / 1.1%	0.2
Isabelle Wardle	offense	3	0	0.0%	0.0%	0.9%	0.0% / 0.9%	0.2
Avigna Mishra	offense	1	0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0% / 0.3%	0.1
Nora Babbit	offense	2	0	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	0.0% / 0.4%	0.1
Jocelyn Kuker	defense	2	0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0% / 0.3%	0.1
Kira Pierce	defense	2	0	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0% / 0.2%	0.1
Luna Ferris	offense	1	0	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0% / 0.1%	0.0

Projected matchups (2027)

Opponent	Expected margin	Risk
Eureka	-9.1	—
Wentzville	-8.7	—
MICDS	-7.8	—
Westminster	-6.1	—
John Burroughs	-5.7	—
St. Joseph's Academy	-5.4	—
Ladue Horton Watkins	-5.2	—
Cor Jesu Academy	-4.9	—
Visitation Academy	-4.9	—
Incarnate Word	4.2	—
Nerinx Hall	3.8	—
Edwardsville	-3.7	—
Notre Dame	3.0	—
Oakville	-2.3	—
Clayton	2.2	—
Lafayette	-2.0	—
Fox High School	-1.9	—
Parkway North	1.9	—
Parkway Central	1.7	—
Belleville West	1.5	—
O'Fallon	-1.5	—
Parkway South	1.5	—
Northwest	-1.0	—
Francis Howell	0.9	—
Francis Howell Central	-0.9	—
Villa Duchesne	0.8	—
Pattonville	0.7	—
Parkway West	-0.6	—
Ursuline Academy	0.6	—
Marquette	0.4	—
Rockwood Summit	-0.4	—
St. Dominic	-0.4	—
Webster Groves	-0.3	—
Kirkwood	0.2	—
Lindbergh	0.2	—

Full board packet row (raw)

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  "forecast_year": 2027,
  "team_name": "Francis Howell North",
  "season": null,
  "prior_finish_rank": 25,
  "current_composite_rank": 28,
  "recommended_rank": 23,
  "composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
  "rank_delta_vs_prior": -2,
  "rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
  "current_composite": null,
  "projected_composite": 50.13,
  "score_drop": 3.5,
  "returning_production_share": 0.915,
  "departure_loss_pct": 3.5,
  "legacy_prior": 0.296,
  "seniors_count": 1,
  "awards_points": 8,
  "departing_awards_points": 1,
  "returning_awards_points": 7,
  "flag_codes": null,
  "action_flag_codes": null,
  "info_flag_codes": null,
  "flag_count": 0,
  "action_flag_count": 0,
  "needs_board_review": "no",
  "review_priority": null,
  "regression_tracks": null,
  "board_note": "Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.",
  "secondary_slot_delta": 0,
  "secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
  "recommended_rank_adjusted": 23,
  "adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
  "league_order_rank": 23,
  "actual_finish_rank": null,
  "projection_error": null,
  "is_backtest": false,
  "raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"Francis Howell North\", \"avg_margin\": \"-4.31\", \"board_note\": \"Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"23\", \"flag_codes\": \"\", \"flag_count\": \"0\", \"margin_std\": \"4.48\", \"score_drop\": \"3.5\", \"top8_games\": \"0\", \"margin_wins\": \"2\", \"top16_games\": \"3\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.296\", \"margin_games\": \"13\", \"awards_points\": \"8\", \"margin_losses\": \"11\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"1\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"2.1\", \"departing_awards\": \"Ariana Larsen (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention)\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"9.1\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"23\", \"returning_awards\": \"Bailey Cosby (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Morgan Conlon (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Mattie Gibbs (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Presley Jaques (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Zidian Walker (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention)\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.405\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"-2\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"-4.08\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"23\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"25\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"0.0\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"3.5\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.967\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"-9.33\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"3.51\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"0.0\", \"projected_composite\": \"50.13\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"-2\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.967\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"28\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.824\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"1\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-9.75\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"7\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"96.5\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"23\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.841\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.915\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"21\"}",
  "margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 21,
  "projected_margin_rating": -9.75,
  "avg_margin_vs_top16": -9.33,
  "projected_turnover_index": 96.5,
  "departing_awards": "Ariana Larsen (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention)",
  "returning_awards": "Bailey Cosby (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Morgan Conlon (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Mattie Gibbs (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Presley Jaques (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Zidian Walker (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention)",
  "override_voted_rank": null,
  "override_program_notes": null,
  "override_final_rank": null,
  "override_updated_at": null,
  "override_updated_by": null,
  "team_slug": "francis-howell-north",
  "effective_rank": 23,
  "final_rank_resolved": 23
}