Parkway North
prior #33 · recommended #34 · final #34 legacy 0.21Margin strength
-8.8
vs top-16 avg -11.0
Projected margin
-12.8
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.332
as of 2026-05-30
Offense
38.17
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
49.50
domain stat
Possession
36.60
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #33
- Recommended (model)
- #34
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #34
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #32
- Projected margin rating
- -12.8
- Departure loss %
- 33.5%
- Returning production share
- 34.1%
- Departure loss
- 33.5%
- Seniors departing
- 4
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.21
Action-flagged
- · low_returning_heavy_loss
Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2025-26)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordyn Tolliver | — | 9 | 33.8% | 29.6% | 79.4% | 12.4% | 22.4% |
| Avery Ragland | — | 14 | 50.6% | 46.4% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 11.1% |
Player impact (2025-26)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordyn Tolliver | offense | 10 | 17 | 33.8% | 83.4% | 15.0% | 0.0% / 15.0% | 16.3 |
| Avery Ragland | offense | 11 | 28 | 50.6% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 0.0% / 10.8% | 9.7 |
| Katherine Peter | goalie | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% / 0.0% | 9.5 |
| Lucy Rohlman | offense | 6 | 5 | 9.5% | 0.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% / 8.0% | 2.6 |
| Marissa Beatty | offense | 3 | 2 | 4.4% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.9 |
| Alexia Williams-Bonnett | offense | 2 | 1 | 1.7% | 4.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.8 |
| Gabriela Isaac | defense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% / 3.0% | 0.5 |
| Raine Ziebatree | offense | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.7% | 0.0% / 2.7% | 0.5 |
| Nora Weiss | offense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 0.0% / 1.8% | 0.3 |
| Paige Olmstead | defense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% / 1.2% | 0.2 |
| Mallory Neal | offense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 0.2 |
| Adeline Friedhoff | offense | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% / 0.6% | 0.1 |
| Lucy Casey | defense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.1 |
Projected matchups (2027)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Eureka | -11.0 | blowout |
| Wentzville | -10.5 | blowout |
| MICDS | -9.6 | — |
| Westminster | -8.0 | — |
| John Burroughs | -7.5 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -7.3 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -7.0 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -6.8 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -6.7 | — |
| Edwardsville | -5.5 | — |
| Oakville | -4.1 | — |
| Lafayette | -3.8 | — |
| Fox High School | -3.7 | — |
| O'Fallon | -3.3 | — |
| Northwest | -2.8 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | -2.8 | — |
| Parkway West | -2.4 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 2.4 | — |
| St. Dominic | -2.3 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | -2.3 | — |
| Webster Groves | -2.2 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 1.9 | — |
| Francis Howell North | -1.9 | — |
| Lindbergh | -1.7 | — |
| Kirkwood | -1.7 | — |
| Marquette | -1.4 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | -1.2 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | -1.1 | — |
| Pattonville | -1.1 | — |
| Notre Dame | 1.1 | — |
| Francis Howell | -0.9 | — |
| Clayton | 0.4 | — |
| Belleville West | -0.4 | — |
| Parkway South | -0.3 | — |
| Parkway Central | -0.2 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2027,
"team_name": "Parkway North",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 33,
"current_composite_rank": 27,
"recommended_rank": 34,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 1,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 28.43,
"score_drop": 33.5,
"returning_production_share": 0.341,
"departure_loss_pct": 33.5,
"legacy_prior": 0.212,
"seniors_count": 4,
"awards_points": 2,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": "low_returning_heavy_loss",
"action_flag_codes": "low_returning_heavy_loss",
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 1,
"action_flag_count": 1,
"needs_board_review": "yes",
"review_priority": "medium",
"regression_tracks": "underclass_surge_or_replacement",
"board_note": "Recommend rank 34 (prior finish 33). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 34,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": 34,
"actual_finish_rank": null,
"projection_error": null,
"is_backtest": false,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"Parkway North\", \"avg_margin\": \"-11.09\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 34 (prior finish 33). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.529\", \"final_rank\": \"34\", \"flag_codes\": \"low_returning_heavy_loss\", \"flag_count\": \"1\", \"margin_std\": \"4.18\", \"score_drop\": \"33.5\", \"top8_games\": \"0\", \"margin_wins\": \"0\", \"top16_games\": \"1\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.212\", \"margin_games\": \"11\", \"awards_points\": \"2\", \"margin_losses\": \"11\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"4\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"medium\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"20.5\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"38.0\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"34\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.321\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"low_returning_heavy_loss\", \"action_flag_count\": \"1\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"1\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"-8.82\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"34\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"33\", \"regression_tracks\": \"underclass_surge_or_replacement\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"0.0\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"33.5\", \"needs_board_review\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.077\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"-11.0\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"0.0\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"42.0\", \"projected_composite\": \"28.43\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"1\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.077\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"True\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"27\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.235\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-12.84\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"feeder_pair_offense\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"66.51\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"34\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.148\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.341\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"32\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 32,
"projected_margin_rating": -12.84,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": -11.0,
"projected_turnover_index": 66.51,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "parkway-north",
"effective_rank": 34,
"final_rank_resolved": 34
}