Nerinx Hall
prior #22 · recommended #25 · final #25 legacy 0.93Margin strength
-10.6
vs top-16 avg -10.6
Projected margin
-16.1
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.485
as of 2026-05-30
Offense
52.93
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
50.12
domain stat
Possession
42.53
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #22
- Recommended (model)
- #26
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #25
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #35
- Projected margin rating
- -16.1
- Departure loss %
- 45.8%
- Returning production share
- 10.7%
- Departure loss
- 45.8%
- Seniors departing
- 10
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −15 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.93
Action-flagged
- · large_move_vs_prior
- · low_returning_heavy_loss
- · legacy_downgrade
- · award_talent_loss
Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review;confirm_roster_turnover;legacy_program_regression;underclass_surge_or_replacement
Info flags:
roster_margin_split
Secondary regression: legacy_pull_1;legacy_depth_floor;prior_blend_25pct
Awards
Departing
Gretchen Patterson (all state first: 1st Team); Gretchen Patterson (all conference: GISL; Player of Year); Kenley Heinen (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Chloe Schmid (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Lainey Bickel (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team)
Departing players (2025-26)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gretchen Patterson | — | 44 | 48.0% | 43.9% | 41.5% | 7.7% | 20.7% |
| Kenley Heinen | — | 22 | 24.0% | 19.8% | 35.4% | 4.4% | 13.2% |
| Lainey Bickel | — | 0 | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 40.3% | 8.9% |
| Chloe Schmid | — | 6 | 7.0% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% |
| Alyssa Miller | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.6% | 1.0% |
| Audrey Molner | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Delaney O’Connell | — | 0 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kate Schuermann | — | 0 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucia Heisig | — | 3 | 3.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophie Council | — | 0 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2025-26)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gretchen Patterson | offense | 13 | 63 | 48.0% | 45.5% | 10.4% | 1.2% / 9.2% | 16.5 |
| Kenley Heinen | offense | 13 | 28 | 24.0% | 39.4% | 7.1% | 0.0% / 7.1% | 10.7 |
| Lainey Bickel | goalie | 12 | 2 | 1.0% | 0.0% | 47.9% | 47.9% / 0.0% | 8.6 |
| Chloe Schmid | offense | 10 | 9 | 7.0% | 8.6% | 3.9% | 0.7% / 3.3% | 3.1 |
| Harper Jansky | offense | 8 | 6 | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.0% / 1.7% | 1.4 |
| Alyssa Miller | defense | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.0% | 0.0% / 7.0% | 1.2 |
| Lucia Heisig | offense | 6 | 4 | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.0% / 1.1% | 1.0 |
| AvA Minshall | goalie | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% / 0.0% | 0.9 |
| Trinity Kilcoyne | offense | 7 | 3 | 2.7% | 0.0% | 2.1% | 0.0% / 2.1% | 0.9 |
| Quinn McNelley | offense | 6 | 4 | 2.5% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 0.0% / 1.8% | 0.8 |
| Violet Kent | offense | 4 | 3 | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% / 0.7% | 0.7 |
| Avy Sanders | offense | 4 | 4 | 2.5% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% / 1.3% | 0.7 |
| Kate Schuermann | offense | 4 | 1 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 0.0% / 1.8% | 0.4 |
| Stella Schulte | offense | 3 | 2 | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% / 0.6% | 0.4 |
| Sophie Council | offense | 6 | 1 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 0.0% / 1.6% | 0.4 |
| Audrey Molner | defense | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% / 1.5% | 0.3 |
| Ryan Boudreau | defense | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% / 1.3% | 0.2 |
| Eve Heinen | defense | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% / 1.1% | 0.2 |
| Emilie Anderson | offense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 0.1 |
| Delaney O’Connell | offense | 1 | 1 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.1 |
| Ella Jerry | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 0.1 |
| Cassidy White | offense | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.1 |
| Alison Whalen | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2027)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Eureka | -12.9 | blowout |
| Wentzville | -12.5 | blowout |
| MICDS | -11.6 | blowout |
| Westminster | -9.9 | — |
| John Burroughs | -9.5 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -9.2 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -8.9 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -8.7 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -8.6 | — |
| Edwardsville | -7.4 | — |
| Oakville | -6.1 | — |
| Lafayette | -5.7 | — |
| Fox High School | -5.7 | — |
| O'Fallon | -5.2 | — |
| Northwest | -4.7 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | -4.7 | — |
| Parkway West | -4.4 | — |
| St. Dominic | -4.2 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | -4.2 | — |
| Webster Groves | -4.1 | — |
| Francis Howell North | -3.8 | — |
| Kirkwood | -3.6 | — |
| Lindbergh | -3.6 | — |
| Marquette | -3.4 | — |
| Pattonville | -3.1 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | -3.1 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | -3.0 | — |
| Francis Howell | -2.9 | — |
| Parkway South | -2.3 | — |
| Belleville West | -2.3 | — |
| Parkway Central | -2.1 | — |
| Parkway North | -1.9 | — |
| Clayton | -1.6 | — |
| Notre Dame | -0.8 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 0.4 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2027,
"team_name": "Nerinx Hall",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 22,
"current_composite_rank": 32,
"recommended_rank": 26,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 4,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 28.54,
"score_drop": 45.8,
"returning_production_share": 0.107,
"departure_loss_pct": 45.8,
"legacy_prior": 0.927,
"seniors_count": 10,
"awards_points": 15,
"departing_awards_points": 15,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": "large_move_vs_prior;roster_margin_split;low_returning_heavy_loss;legacy_downgrade;award_talent_loss",
"action_flag_codes": "large_move_vs_prior;low_returning_heavy_loss;legacy_downgrade;award_talent_loss",
"info_flag_codes": "roster_margin_split",
"flag_count": 5,
"action_flag_count": 4,
"needs_board_review": "yes",
"review_priority": "high",
"regression_tracks": "award_talent_review;confirm_roster_turnover;legacy_program_regression;underclass_surge_or_replacement",
"board_note": "Recommend rank 26 (prior finish 22). Flagged for board review: large_move_vs_prior, low_returning_heavy_loss, legacy_downgrade, award_talent_loss. Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review; confirm_roster_turnover; legacy_program_regression; underclass_surge_or_replacement.",
"secondary_slot_delta": -2,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": "legacy_pull_1;legacy_depth_floor;prior_blend_25pct",
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 25,
"adjusted_rank_delta": -1,
"league_order_rank": 25,
"actual_finish_rank": null,
"projection_error": null,
"is_backtest": false,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"Nerinx Hall\", \"avg_margin\": \"-2.64\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 26 (prior finish 22). Flagged for board review: large_move_vs_prior, low_returning_heavy_loss, legacy_downgrade, award_talent_loss. Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review; confirm_roster_turnover; legacy_program_regression; underclass_surge_or_replacement.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.613\", \"final_rank\": \"25\", \"flag_codes\": \"large_move_vs_prior;roster_margin_split;low_returning_heavy_loss;legacy_downgrade;award_talent_loss\", \"flag_count\": \"5\", \"margin_std\": \"9.44\", \"score_drop\": \"45.8\", \"top8_games\": \"4\", \"margin_wins\": \"6\", \"top16_games\": \"7\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.927\", \"margin_games\": \"14\", \"awards_points\": \"15\", \"margin_losses\": \"8\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"10\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"0-4\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split\", \"review_priority\": \"high\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"45.0\", \"departing_awards\": \"Gretchen Patterson (all state first: 1st Team); Gretchen Patterson (all conference: GISL; Player of Year); Kenley Heinen (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Chloe Schmid (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Lainey Bickel (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team)\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"38.0\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"26\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.473\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"large_move_vs_prior;low_returning_heavy_loss;legacy_downgrade;award_talent_loss\", \"action_flag_count\": \"4\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"3\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"-2.29\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"25\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"22\", \"regression_tracks\": \"award_talent_review;confirm_roster_turnover;legacy_program_regression;underclass_surge_or_replacement\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"-12.0\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"45.8\", \"needs_board_review\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.061\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"-1\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"-10.57\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"2.64\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"42.0\", \"projected_composite\": \"28.54\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"4\", \"composite_split_note\": \"also\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.061\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"-2\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"True\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"32\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.194\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"15\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-16.07\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"feeder_pair_offense\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"54.18\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"25\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.215\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.107\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"legacy_pull_1;legacy_depth_floor;prior_blend_25pct\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"35\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 35,
"projected_margin_rating": -16.07,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": -10.57,
"projected_turnover_index": 54.18,
"departing_awards": "Gretchen Patterson (all state first: 1st Team); Gretchen Patterson (all conference: GISL; Player of Year); Kenley Heinen (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Chloe Schmid (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Lainey Bickel (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team)",
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "nerinx-hall",
"effective_rank": 25,
"final_rank_resolved": 25
}