Belleville West
prior #37 · recommended #36 · final #36 legacy 0.20Margin strength
-10.7
vs top-16 avg -10.7
Projected margin
-12.2
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.426
as of 2026-05-30
Offense
58.93
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
45.74
domain stat
Possession
79.17
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #37
- Recommended (model)
- #36
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #36
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #29
- Projected margin rating
- -12.2
- Departure loss %
- 12.6%
- Returning production share
- 76.9%
- Departure loss
- 12.6%
- Seniors departing
- 6
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.20
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2025-26)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brynn Flannery-Melson | — | 12 | 13.5% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 5.7% |
| Alani Rowan | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 17.2% | 4.8% |
| Jersey Carty | — | 6 | 6.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% |
| Payton Schilling | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Alivia McDonald | — | 0 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katie Kammann | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2025-26)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Addison Schaumleffel | offense | 13 | 61 | 47.4% | 66.5% | 10.7% | 0.0% / 10.7% | 27.3 |
| Brynn Flannery-Melson | offense | 13 | 17 | 13.5% | 12.6% | 5.3% | 0.0% / 5.3% | 6.6 |
| McKenzie Lewis | goalie | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 38.1% | 38.1% / 0.0% | 6.1 |
| Cecilia Duncan | offense | 7 | 19 | 14.1% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 0.0% / 2.5% | 3.6 |
| Jersey Carty | offense | 13 | 8 | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 0.0% / 4.4% | 3.5 |
| Alani Rowan | offense | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.3% | 19.9% | 16.9% / 3.0% | 3.5 |
| Gabriella Ortega | offense | 13 | 1 | 0.8% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 0.0% / 3.0% | 2.0 |
| Josie Altmansberger | offense | 13 | 9 | 6.8% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% / 1.5% | 1.6 |
| Abigal Treadway | offense | 11 | 6 | 4.3% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 0.0% / 1.7% | 1.4 |
| Marley Keifer | offense | 10 | 6 | 4.3% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% / 1.5% | 1.2 |
| Kadyn Pajares | offense | 9 | 1 | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0.0% / 2.0% | 1.0 |
| Madeline Ticknor | offense | 7 | 1 | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.0% / 1.5% | 0.9 |
| Payton Schilling | defense | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 3.5% | 0.0% / 3.5% | 0.7 |
| Katie Kammann | offense | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 2.5% | 0.0% / 2.5% | 0.5 |
| Cynthea Hoffman | offense | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% / 1.5% | 0.2 |
| Alivia McDonald | offense | 1 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.1 |
| Victoria Podhrasky | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.1 |
Projected matchups (2027)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Eureka | -10.6 | blowout |
| Wentzville | -10.2 | blowout |
| MICDS | -9.2 | — |
| Westminster | -7.6 | — |
| John Burroughs | -7.1 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -6.9 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -6.6 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -6.4 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -6.3 | — |
| Edwardsville | -5.1 | — |
| Oakville | -3.7 | — |
| Lafayette | -3.4 | — |
| Fox High School | -3.3 | — |
| O'Fallon | -2.9 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 2.8 | — |
| Northwest | -2.4 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | -2.4 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 2.3 | — |
| Parkway West | -2.0 | — |
| St. Dominic | -1.9 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | -1.9 | — |
| Webster Groves | -1.8 | — |
| Francis Howell North | -1.5 | — |
| Notre Dame | 1.5 | — |
| Kirkwood | -1.3 | — |
| Lindbergh | -1.3 | — |
| Marquette | -1.1 | — |
| Clayton | 0.8 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | -0.8 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | -0.7 | — |
| Pattonville | -0.7 | — |
| Francis Howell | -0.5 | — |
| Parkway North | 0.4 | — |
| Parkway Central | 0.2 | — |
| Parkway South | 0.1 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2027,
"team_name": "Belleville West",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 37,
"current_composite_rank": 33,
"recommended_rank": 36,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": -1,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 53.41,
"score_drop": 12.6,
"returning_production_share": 0.769,
"departure_loss_pct": 12.6,
"legacy_prior": 0.205,
"seniors_count": 6,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": null,
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 0,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": null,
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 36,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": 36,
"actual_finish_rank": null,
"projection_error": null,
"is_backtest": false,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"Belleville West\", \"avg_margin\": \"-2.0\", \"board_note\": \"Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"36\", \"flag_codes\": \"\", \"flag_count\": \"0\", \"margin_std\": \"7.03\", \"score_drop\": \"12.6\", \"top8_games\": \"3\", \"margin_wins\": \"6\", \"top16_games\": \"3\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.205\", \"margin_games\": \"14\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"margin_losses\": \"8\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"6\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"0-3\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"22.7\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"8.3\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"36\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.585\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"-1\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"-2.0\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"36\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"37\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"-10.67\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"12.6\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.776\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"-10.67\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"2.08\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"6.8\", \"projected_composite\": \"53.41\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"-1\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.776\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"33\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.803\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-12.18\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"87.38\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"36\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.737\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.769\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"29\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 29,
"projected_margin_rating": -12.18,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": -10.67,
"projected_turnover_index": 87.38,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "belleville-west",
"effective_rank": 36,
"final_rank_resolved": 36
}