Webster Groves
prior #20 · recommended #20 · final #20 legacy 0.45Margin strength
-6.8
vs top-16 avg -6.8
Projected margin
-9.2
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.454
as of 2026-05-30
Offense
51.24
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
67.29
domain stat
Possession
49.04
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #20
- Recommended (model)
- #20
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #20
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #20
- Projected margin rating
- -9.2
- Departure loss %
- 19.9%
- Returning production share
- 62.4%
- Departure loss
- 19.9%
- Seniors departing
- 7
- Awards points
- +7 returning · −2 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.45
Awards
Departing
Elliot Blew (all conference: Green; 1st Team)
Returning
Shae Hodge (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Elliotte Stahl (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention); Emma Zarky (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Kara Ford (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention); Maddie Hinkle (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Opal Hayes (all conference: Green; 2nd Team)
Departing players (2025-26)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliot Blew | — | 31 | 29.7% | 25.5% | 37.0% | 3.6% | 16.9% |
| Leilie Roash | — | 8 | 8.1% | 3.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% |
| Kate Vaniger | — | 3 | 3.3% | 0.0% | 3.4% | 0.0% | 0.9% |
| Ruby Toro | — | 7 | 7.5% | 3.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% |
| Sam Enlund | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Caroline Likos | — | 1 | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2025-26)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avery Enlund | goalie | 15 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% / 0.0% | 12.9 |
| Elliot Blew | offense | 15 | 36 | 29.7% | 41.0% | 6.2% | 0.0% / 6.2% | 12.8 |
| Maddie Hinkle | offense | 15 | 14 | 10.9% | 13.9% | 3.2% | 0.0% / 3.2% | 4.8 |
| Elliotte Stahl | offense | 4 | 15 | 12.5% | 5.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% / 1.5% | 3.3 |
| Kara Ford | offense | 15 | 5 | 3.0% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 0.0% / 3.4% | 2.8 |
| Maria Ward | offense | 14 | 4 | 3.5% | 10.9% | 2.0% | 0.0% / 2.0% | 2.7 |
| Rylee McGrew | offense | 14 | 14 | 9.7% | 0.0% | 2.7% | 0.0% / 2.7% | 2.4 |
| Opal Hayes | offense | 15 | 2 | 1.2% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 0.0% / 4.6% | 2.2 |
| Kate Vaniger | offense | 13 | 4 | 3.3% | 7.4% | 2.1% | 0.0% / 2.1% | 2.2 |
| Leilie Roash | offense | 12 | 10 | 8.1% | 0.0% | 2.1% | 0.0% / 2.1% | 1.9 |
| Seneca Ahrens | offense | 15 | 12 | 7.9% | 0.0% | 2.1% | 0.0% / 2.1% | 1.9 |
| Ruby Toro | offense | 10 | 10 | 7.5% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 1.6 |
| Nina Young | offense | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.0% / 1.5% | 0.9 |
| Sam Enlund | defense | 14 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.5% | 0.0% / 3.5% | 0.8 |
| Caroline Likos | offense | 9 | 2 | 1.3% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% / 0.6% | 0.7 |
| Shae Hodge | offense | 13 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.4% | 0.0% / 2.4% | 0.6 |
| Lexi Drissel | offense | 8 | 2 | 1.4% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% / 1.0% | 0.5 |
| Emma Zarky | defense | 13 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 0.0% / 1.9% | 0.5 |
| Evyn Lynch | defense | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 0.0% / 1.6% | 0.4 |
| Emily Brendel | defense | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% / 1.0% | 0.2 |
| Isabel Harouff | defense | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% / 0.7% | 0.2 |
| Elise Padilla | offense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2027)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Eureka | -8.8 | — |
| Wentzville | -8.4 | — |
| MICDS | -7.4 | — |
| Westminster | -5.8 | — |
| John Burroughs | -5.4 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -5.1 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -4.8 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 4.6 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -4.6 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -4.5 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 4.1 | — |
| Notre Dame | 3.3 | — |
| Edwardsville | -3.3 | — |
| Clayton | 2.6 | — |
| Parkway North | 2.2 | — |
| Parkway Central | 2.0 | — |
| Oakville | -1.9 | — |
| Parkway South | 1.8 | — |
| Belleville West | 1.8 | — |
| Lafayette | -1.6 | — |
| Fox High School | -1.5 | — |
| Francis Howell | 1.3 | — |
| O'Fallon | -1.1 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 1.1 | — |
| Pattonville | 1.1 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 1.0 | — |
| Marquette | 0.7 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | -0.6 | — |
| Northwest | -0.6 | — |
| Kirkwood | 0.5 | — |
| Lindbergh | 0.5 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 0.3 | — |
| Parkway West | -0.2 | — |
| St. Dominic | -0.1 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | -0.1 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2027,
"team_name": "Webster Groves",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 20,
"current_composite_rank": 17,
"recommended_rank": 20,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 0,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 45.84,
"score_drop": 19.9,
"returning_production_share": 0.624,
"departure_loss_pct": 19.9,
"legacy_prior": 0.448,
"seniors_count": 7,
"awards_points": 12,
"departing_awards_points": 2,
"returning_awards_points": 7,
"flag_codes": null,
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 0,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": null,
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 20,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": 20,
"actual_finish_rank": null,
"projection_error": null,
"is_backtest": false,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"Webster Groves\", \"avg_margin\": \"-0.13\", \"board_note\": \"Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"20\", \"flag_codes\": \"\", \"flag_count\": \"0\", \"margin_std\": \"6.89\", \"score_drop\": \"19.9\", \"top8_games\": \"1\", \"margin_wins\": \"7\", \"top16_games\": \"5\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.448\", \"margin_games\": \"15\", \"awards_points\": \"12\", \"margin_losses\": \"8\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"7\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"0-1\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"4.6\", \"departing_awards\": \"Elliot Blew (all conference: Green; 1st Team)\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"26.1\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"20\", \"returning_awards\": \"Shae Hodge (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Elliotte Stahl (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention); Emma Zarky (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Kara Ford (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention); Maddie Hinkle (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Opal Hayes (all conference: Green; 2nd Team)\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.285\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"-0.27\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"20\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"20\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"-13.0\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"19.9\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.504\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"-6.8\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"4.15\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"31.2\", \"projected_composite\": \"45.84\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.504\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"17\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.784\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"2\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-9.19\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"7\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"80.1\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"20\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.478\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.624\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"20\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 20,
"projected_margin_rating": -9.19,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": -6.8,
"projected_turnover_index": 80.1,
"departing_awards": "Elliot Blew (all conference: Green; 1st Team)",
"returning_awards": "Shae Hodge (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Elliotte Stahl (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention); Emma Zarky (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Kara Ford (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention); Maddie Hinkle (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Opal Hayes (all conference: Green; 2nd Team)",
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "webster-groves",
"effective_rank": 20,
"final_rank_resolved": 20
}