St. Dominic
prior #10 · recommended #11 · final #11 legacy 0.50Margin strength
-5.8
vs top-16 avg -5.8
Projected margin
-9.0
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.539
as of 2026-05-30
Offense
65.76
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
68.48
domain stat
Possession
64.89
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #10
- Recommended (model)
- #11
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #11
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #18
- Projected margin rating
- -9.0
- Departure loss %
- 26.6%
- Returning production share
- 53.0%
- Departure loss
- 26.6%
- Seniors departing
- 5
- Awards points
- +6 returning · −7 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.50
Awards
Departing
Gwenny Roberts (all state hm: Honorable Mention); Gwenny Roberts (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Bree Moore (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team)
Returning
Luci Richardson (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); McKenna Schmidt (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Olivia Roberts (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Sophia Riffle (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Whitney Downard (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention)
Departing players (2025-26)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rose Chamberlain | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 30.1% | 9.8% |
| Gwenny Roberts | — | 45 | 32.3% | 28.1% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 9.6% |
| Bree Moore | — | 21 | 15.5% | 11.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 4.0% |
| Sam Lisweski | — | 9 | 6.4% | 2.2% | 6.6% | 0.9% | 3.2% |
| Anna Corrgian | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2025-26)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luci Richardson | offense | 14 | 14 | 8.0% | 41.9% | 7.3% | 0.0% / 7.3% | 11.8 |
| Rose Chamberlain | goalie | 13 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 37.7% | 37.7% / 0.0% | 9.1 |
| Gwenny Roberts | offense | 14 | 53 | 32.3% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 0.0% / 3.9% | 8.8 |
| Whitney Downard | offense | 12 | 29 | 18.5% | 14.7% | 2.2% | 0.0% / 2.2% | 7.7 |
| Bree Moore | offense | 14 | 25 | 15.5% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 0.0% / 2.6% | 5.2 |
| Sam Lisweski | offense | 14 | 14 | 6.4% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% / 3.5% | 4.4 |
| Kaitlyn Zwilling | goalie | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 17.3% | 17.3% / 0.0% | 4.1 |
| Sophia Riffle | offense | 14 | 8 | 3.6% | 9.7% | 4.7% | 0.0% / 4.7% | 3.9 |
| McKenna Schmidt | offense | 13 | 7 | 4.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 0.0% / 5.0% | 3.3 |
| Shyann Davis | offense | 11 | 7 | 3.6% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.0% / 1.9% | 2.1 |
| Olivia Roberts | offense | 14 | 3 | 1.5% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 0.0% / 4.4% | 2.0 |
| Camila Keithley | offense | 14 | 6 | 4.2% | 0.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% / 2.4% | 1.6 |
| Abby Carney | offense | 6 | 4 | 2.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% / 0.7% | 0.6 |
| Alexis Clemens | offense | 13 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.6% | 0.0% / 2.6% | 0.6 |
| Avery Cattoor | defense | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.0% / 1.5% | 0.6 |
| Anna Corrgian | defense | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.0% / 1.4% | 0.5 |
| Juliet Huesling | offense | 4 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 0.2 |
| Violet Stillman | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Allison Tehan | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2027)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Eureka | -8.7 | — |
| Wentzville | -8.3 | — |
| MICDS | -7.3 | — |
| Westminster | -5.7 | — |
| John Burroughs | -5.3 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -5.0 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 4.7 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -4.7 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -4.5 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -4.4 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 4.2 | — |
| Notre Dame | 3.4 | — |
| Edwardsville | -3.2 | — |
| Clayton | 2.7 | — |
| Parkway North | 2.3 | — |
| Parkway Central | 2.1 | — |
| Parkway South | 1.9 | — |
| Belleville West | 1.9 | — |
| Oakville | -1.8 | — |
| Lafayette | -1.5 | — |
| Francis Howell | 1.4 | — |
| Fox High School | -1.4 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 1.2 | — |
| Pattonville | 1.2 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 1.1 | — |
| O'Fallon | -1.0 | — |
| Marquette | 0.8 | — |
| Lindbergh | 0.6 | — |
| Kirkwood | 0.6 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | -0.5 | — |
| Northwest | -0.5 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 0.4 | — |
| Webster Groves | 0.1 | — |
| Parkway West | -0.1 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 0.0 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2027,
"team_name": "St. Dominic",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 10,
"current_composite_rank": 16,
"recommended_rank": 11,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 1,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 49.02,
"score_drop": 26.6,
"returning_production_share": 0.53,
"departure_loss_pct": 26.6,
"legacy_prior": 0.499,
"seniors_count": 5,
"awards_points": 14,
"departing_awards_points": 7,
"returning_awards_points": 6,
"flag_codes": null,
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 0,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": null,
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 11,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": 11,
"actual_finish_rank": null,
"projection_error": null,
"is_backtest": false,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"St. Dominic\", \"avg_margin\": \"3.71\", \"board_note\": \"Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"11\", \"flag_codes\": \"\", \"flag_count\": \"0\", \"margin_std\": \"9.6\", \"score_drop\": \"26.6\", \"top8_games\": \"4\", \"margin_wins\": \"9\", \"top16_games\": \"6\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.499\", \"margin_games\": \"14\", \"awards_points\": \"14\", \"margin_losses\": \"5\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"5\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"0-4\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"32.2\", \"departing_awards\": \"Gwenny Roberts (all state hm: Honorable Mention); Gwenny Roberts (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Bree Moore (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team)\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"38.0\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"11\", \"returning_awards\": \"Luci Richardson (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); McKenna Schmidt (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Olivia Roberts (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Sophia Riffle (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Whitney Downard (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention)\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.48\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"1\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"2.5\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"11\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"10\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"-8.5\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"26.6\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.801\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"-5.83\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"4.54\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"4.9\", \"projected_composite\": \"49.02\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"1\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.801\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"True\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"16\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.549\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"7\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-9.02\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"6\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"feeder_pair_offense;late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"73.39\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"11\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.519\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.53\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"18\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 18,
"projected_margin_rating": -9.02,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": -5.83,
"projected_turnover_index": 73.39,
"departing_awards": "Gwenny Roberts (all state hm: Honorable Mention); Gwenny Roberts (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Bree Moore (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team)",
"returning_awards": "Luci Richardson (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); McKenna Schmidt (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Olivia Roberts (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Sophia Riffle (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Whitney Downard (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention)",
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "st-dominic",
"effective_rank": 11,
"final_rank_resolved": 11
}