Oakville
prior #30 · recommended #30 · final #30 legacy 0.11Margin strength
-1.9
vs top-16 avg -10.0
Projected margin
-6.0
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.367
as of 2026-05-30
Offense
54.59
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
63.99
domain stat
Possession
68.01
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #30
- Recommended (model)
- #30
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #30
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #11
- Projected margin rating
- -6.0
- Departure loss %
- 33.8%
- Returning production share
- 38.6%
- Departure loss
- 33.8%
- Seniors departing
- 15
- Awards points
- +2 returning · −6 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.11
Info flags:
roster_margin_split
Awards
Departing
Aubrey Cillo (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Natalie Girard (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Abby Hasty (all conference: Red; 2nd Team); Hanna Essner (all conference: Red; 2nd Team)
Returning
Addison Sanders (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention); Lillian King (all conference: Red; 2nd Team)
Departing players (2025-26)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hanna Essner | — | 4 | 8.1% | 3.9% | 25.8% | 0.6% | 10.0% |
| Ava Burton | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 21.5% | 7.1% |
| Ally Christopher | — | 9 | 16.2% | 12.0% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 4.2% |
| Abby Hasty | — | 8 | 15.4% | 11.2% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 4.1% |
| Lily Stevens | — | 4 | 8.7% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 2.1% |
| Brooke Wilson | — | 3 | 6.1% | 1.9% | 4.3% | 0.0% | 2.0% |
| Aubrey Cillo | — | 5 | 9.7% | 5.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.8% |
| Sydney Essner | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.8% | 0.0% | 0.9% |
| Amila Gusic | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.7% |
| Nora Brandt | — | 3 | 6.0% | 1.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| Maddie Burton | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Alyssa Musiclak | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Vangaasbeek | — | 0 | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Karly Koenig | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Girard | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2025-26)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hanna Essner | offense | 10 | 7 | 8.1% | 29.8% | 3.3% | 0.0% / 3.3% | 8.4 |
| Lillian King | offense | 9 | 15 | 14.2% | 15.8% | 4.3% | 0.0% / 4.3% | 6.9 |
| Addie Hebden | goalie | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 29.9% | 29.9% / 0.0% | 6.7 |
| Addison Sanders | offense | 10 | 6 | 7.3% | 18.6% | 2.4% | 0.0% / 2.4% | 5.7 |
| Ava Burton | defense | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 24.0% | 23.3% / 0.7% | 5.4 |
| Abby Hasty | offense | 10 | 15 | 15.3% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% / 3.8% | 4.2 |
| Ally Christopher | offense | 10 | 14 | 16.2% | 0.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% / 3.5% | 4.0 |
| Lily Stevens | offense | 9 | 8 | 8.7% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 0.0% / 2.7% | 3.5 |
| Brooke Wilson | offense | 9 | 5 | 6.1% | 8.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% / 1.3% | 3.2 |
| Aubrey Cillo | offense | 9 | 9 | 9.7% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 0.0% / 1.3% | 2.3 |
| Amila Gusic | offense | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 0.0% / 2.9% | 1.9 |
| Sydney Essner | offense | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 6.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% / 1.0% | 1.6 |
| Nora Brandt | offense | 9 | 6 | 6.0% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 0.0% / 1.9% | 1.6 |
| Samantha StJohn | offense | 9 | 6 | 4.4% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% / 1.0% | 1.1 |
| Caroline Vangaasbeek | offense | 9 | 2 | 1.5% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 0.0% / 1.8% | 0.8 |
| Maddie Burton | defense | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% / 3.0% | 0.7 |
| Alexa Mann | offense | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.7 |
| Alyssa Bartoni | defense | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% / 1.0% | 0.6 |
| Natalie Girard | defense | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.0% / 1.6% | 0.5 |
| Karly Koenig | defense | 8 | 1 | 0.7% | 0.0% | 2.3% | 0.0% / 2.3% | 0.5 |
| Alyssa Musiclak | defense | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.1% | 0.0% / 2.1% | 0.5 |
| Eliette Schilling | goalie | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% / 0.0% | 0.4 |
| Olivia Reid | offense | 1 | 1 | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.4 |
| Mia Rositano | offense | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% / 1.2% | 0.3 |
| Mya Godfrey | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% / 0.6% | 0.1 |
| Vildana Korkaric | defense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.1 |
| Clara Harrington | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2027)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Eureka | -6.8 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 6.5 | — |
| Wentzville | -6.4 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 6.1 | — |
| MICDS | -5.5 | — |
| Notre Dame | 5.3 | — |
| Clayton | 4.5 | — |
| Parkway North | 4.1 | — |
| Westminster | -3.9 | — |
| Parkway Central | 3.9 | — |
| Parkway South | 3.8 | — |
| Belleville West | 3.7 | — |
| John Burroughs | -3.4 | — |
| Francis Howell | 3.2 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -3.1 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 3.1 | — |
| Pattonville | 3.0 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -2.9 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 2.9 | — |
| Marquette | 2.7 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -2.7 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -2.6 | — |
| Kirkwood | 2.4 | — |
| Lindbergh | 2.4 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 2.3 | — |
| Webster Groves | 1.9 | — |
| St. Dominic | 1.8 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 1.8 | — |
| Parkway West | 1.7 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 1.4 | — |
| Edwardsville | -1.4 | — |
| Northwest | 1.3 | — |
| O'Fallon | 0.8 | — |
| Fox High School | 0.4 | — |
| Lafayette | 0.3 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2027,
"team_name": "Oakville",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 30,
"current_composite_rank": 12,
"recommended_rank": 30,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 0,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 42.77,
"score_drop": 33.8,
"returning_production_share": 0.386,
"departure_loss_pct": 33.8,
"legacy_prior": 0.107,
"seniors_count": 15,
"awards_points": 9,
"departing_awards_points": 6,
"returning_awards_points": 2,
"flag_codes": "roster_margin_split",
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": "roster_margin_split",
"flag_count": 1,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": "medium",
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Recommend rank 30 (prior finish 30). Flagged for board review: roster_margin_split. Suggested follow-up: margin_vs_roster_review.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 30,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": 30,
"actual_finish_rank": null,
"projection_error": null,
"is_backtest": false,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"Oakville\", \"avg_margin\": \"-1.92\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 30 (prior finish 30). Flagged for board review: roster_margin_split. Suggested follow-up: margin_vs_roster_review.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.45\", \"final_rank\": \"30\", \"flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split\", \"flag_count\": \"1\", \"margin_std\": \"9.72\", \"score_drop\": \"33.8\", \"top8_games\": \"0\", \"margin_wins\": \"4\", \"top16_games\": \"1\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.107\", \"margin_games\": \"13\", \"awards_points\": \"9\", \"margin_losses\": \"9\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"15\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split\", \"review_priority\": \"medium\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"25.1\", \"departing_awards\": \"Aubrey Cillo (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Natalie Girard (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Abby Hasty (all conference: Red; 2nd Team); Hanna Essner (all conference: Red; 2nd Team)\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"36.2\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"30\", \"returning_awards\": \"Addison Sanders (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention); Lillian King (all conference: Red; 2nd Team)\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.421\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"-1.92\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"30\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"30\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"0.0\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"33.8\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.398\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"-10.0\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"0.0\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"32.3\", \"projected_composite\": \"42.77\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"composite_split_note\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.398\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"12\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.275\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"6\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-5.98\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"2\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"66.17\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"30\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.303\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.386\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"11\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 11,
"projected_margin_rating": -5.98,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": -10.0,
"projected_turnover_index": 66.17,
"departing_awards": "Aubrey Cillo (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Natalie Girard (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Abby Hasty (all conference: Red; 2nd Team); Hanna Essner (all conference: Red; 2nd Team)",
"returning_awards": "Addison Sanders (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention); Lillian King (all conference: Red; 2nd Team)",
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "oakville",
"effective_rank": 30,
"final_rank_resolved": 30
}