Rockwood Summit
prior #16 · recommended #16 · final #16 legacy 0.82Margin strength
-7.1
vs top-16 avg -7.1
Projected margin
-9.0
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.525
as of 2026-05-30
Offense
56.77
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
65.79
domain stat
Possession
60.57
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #16
- Recommended (model)
- #16
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #16
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #19
- Projected margin rating
- -9.0
- Departure loss %
- 16.0%
- Returning production share
- 69.3%
- Departure loss
- 16.0%
- Seniors departing
- 6
- Awards points
- +12 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.82
Awards
Returning
Molly Jones (all state hm: Honorable Mention); Emery Gregston (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Molly Jones (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Ashlinn Kloos (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Bianca Carlson (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); McKenna Pedrotti (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Natalie Moehle (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention)
Departing players (2025-26)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karlee Brandt | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 25.6% | 8.8% |
| Rayna Brunk | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 14.9% | 5.1% |
| Tracy Vu | — | 12 | 10.2% | 6.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% |
| Briana Huyen | — | 3 | 2.4% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Norah Klevorn | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2025-26)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molly Jones | offense | 15 | 40 | 27.6% | 44.7% | 9.8% | 0.0% / 9.8% | 15.9 |
| Karlee Brandt | goalie | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 33.2% | 29.7% / 3.5% | 7.6 |
| Bianca Carlson | offense | 14 | 21 | 16.1% | 18.0% | 4.9% | 0.0% / 4.9% | 7.6 |
| Emery Gregston | offense | 15 | 20 | 13.1% | 22.2% | 3.2% | 0.0% / 3.2% | 7.4 |
| Rayna Brunk | goalie | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 22.5% | 20.8% / 1.6% | 5.2 |
| Ashlinn Kloos | offense | 14 | 26 | 17.8% | 1.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% / 3.0% | 4.4 |
| Tracy Vu | offense | 13 | 16 | 10.2% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.0% / 2.0% | 3.0 |
| Natalie Moehle | offense | 12 | 11 | 7.7% | 0.7% | 2.6% | 0.0% / 2.6% | 2.3 |
| Briana Huyen | offense | 14 | 4 | 2.4% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.0% / 1.7% | 1.6 |
| Chloe Phillips | offense | 11 | 3 | 2.1% | 4.5% | 1.3% | 0.0% / 1.3% | 1.5 |
| McKenna Pedrotti | offense | 14 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 0.0% / 3.7% | 1.2 |
| Bailey Frenz | goalie | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.1% | 3.7% / 0.4% | 0.9 |
| Ava Proctor | defense | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.3% | 0.0% / 2.3% | 0.5 |
| Lilly Byrd | offense | 9 | 2 | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% / 0.8% | 0.4 |
| Elena Grasso | offense | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% / 1.2% | 0.3 |
| Ayda Demerit | defense | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% / 0.4% | 0.3 |
| Georgia Teller | offense | 3 | 2 | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.3 |
| Kinzley Phillips | offense | 4 | 1 | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.2 |
| Norah Klevorn | defense | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% / 0.8% | 0.2 |
| Tessa Boulay | offense | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% / 0.6% | 0.1 |
| Ashley Gibson | defense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.1 |
| Maddie Stevens | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2027)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Eureka | -8.7 | — |
| Wentzville | -8.3 | — |
| MICDS | -7.3 | — |
| Westminster | -5.7 | — |
| John Burroughs | -5.3 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -5.0 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 4.7 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -4.7 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -4.5 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -4.4 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 4.2 | — |
| Notre Dame | 3.4 | — |
| Edwardsville | -3.2 | — |
| Clayton | 2.7 | — |
| Parkway North | 2.3 | — |
| Parkway Central | 2.1 | — |
| Parkway South | 1.9 | — |
| Belleville West | 1.9 | — |
| Oakville | -1.8 | — |
| Lafayette | -1.5 | — |
| Francis Howell | 1.4 | — |
| Fox High School | -1.4 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 1.2 | — |
| Pattonville | 1.2 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 1.1 | — |
| O'Fallon | -1.0 | — |
| Marquette | 0.8 | — |
| Lindbergh | 0.6 | — |
| Kirkwood | 0.6 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | -0.5 | — |
| Northwest | -0.5 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 0.4 | — |
| Parkway West | -0.2 | — |
| Webster Groves | 0.1 | — |
| St. Dominic | 0.0 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2027,
"team_name": "Rockwood Summit",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 16,
"current_composite_rank": 20,
"recommended_rank": 16,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 0,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 49.82,
"score_drop": 16.0,
"returning_production_share": 0.693,
"departure_loss_pct": 16.0,
"legacy_prior": 0.817,
"seniors_count": 6,
"awards_points": 12,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 12,
"flag_codes": null,
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 0,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": null,
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 16,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": 16,
"actual_finish_rank": null,
"projection_error": null,
"is_backtest": false,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"Rockwood Summit\", \"avg_margin\": \"-2.6\", \"board_note\": \"Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"16\", \"flag_codes\": \"\", \"flag_count\": \"0\", \"margin_std\": \"7.73\", \"score_drop\": \"16.0\", \"top8_games\": \"6\", \"margin_wins\": \"6\", \"top16_games\": \"9\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.817\", \"margin_games\": \"15\", \"awards_points\": \"12\", \"margin_losses\": \"9\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"6\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"0-6\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"45.0\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"4.3\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"16\", \"returning_awards\": \"Molly Jones (all state hm: Honorable Mention); Emery Gregston (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Molly Jones (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Ashlinn Kloos (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Bianca Carlson (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); McKenna Pedrotti (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Natalie Moehle (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention)\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.295\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"-2.33\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"16\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"16\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"-9.0\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"16.0\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.935\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"-7.11\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"4.81\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"0.2\", \"projected_composite\": \"49.82\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.935\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"20\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.907\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-9.03\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"12\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"84.0\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"16\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.831\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.693\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"19\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 19,
"projected_margin_rating": -9.03,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": -7.11,
"projected_turnover_index": 84.0,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": "Molly Jones (all state hm: Honorable Mention); Emery Gregston (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Molly Jones (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Ashlinn Kloos (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Bianca Carlson (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); McKenna Pedrotti (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Natalie Moehle (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention)",
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "rockwood-summit",
"effective_rank": 16,
"final_rank_resolved": 16
}