Wentzville
prior #15 · recommended #14 · final #14 legacy 0.81Margin strength
6.5
vs top-16 avg 1.0
Projected margin
4.7
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.497
as of 2026-05-30
Offense
70.85
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
64.81
domain stat
Possession
70.16
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #15
- Recommended (model)
- #14
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #14
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #2
- Projected margin rating
- 4.7
- Departure loss %
- 15.1%
- Returning production share
- 70.3%
- Departure loss
- 15.1%
- Seniors departing
- 9
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.81
Info flags:
roster_margin_split
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2025-26)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rebecca Bell | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 40.5% | 11.6% |
| Shannon O'Leary | — | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 6.5% | 2.4% |
| Emma Hildenbrand | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.7% | 1.1% |
| Anna Wright | — | 0 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cali Moller | — | 0 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Danika Clark | — | 3 | 3.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hayden Eppler | — | 1 | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kayleigh Schumer | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nikhita Nevil | — | 1 | 2.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2025-26)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison Jimenez | offense | 11 | 31 | 22.1% | 28.2% | 4.5% | 0.0% / 4.5% | 12.4 |
| Rebecca Bell | goalie | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 48.1% | 48.1% / 0.0% | 10.9 |
| Riley Binggeli | offense | 11 | 13 | 8.9% | 24.6% | 5.1% | 0.0% / 5.1% | 8.5 |
| Riley Flynn | offense | 9 | 12 | 8.6% | 24.2% | 2.9% | 0.0% / 2.9% | 7.9 |
| Sophia Arnone | offense | 10 | 32 | 22.0% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 0.0% / 2.5% | 7.4 |
| Kelsi Branson | offense | 11 | 18 | 13.1% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 0.0% / 2.2% | 4.0 |
| Sophia Tobey | offense | 11 | 18 | 13.1% | 0.4% | 2.2% | 0.0% / 2.2% | 3.8 |
| Shannon O'Leary | defense | 11 | 2 | 1.0% | 4.8% | 8.9% | 0.0% / 8.9% | 3.0 |
| Claire Hildenbrand | goalie | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% / 0.0% | 1.6 |
| Emma Hildenbrand | defense | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.1% | 0.0% / 6.1% | 1.4 |
| Anna Wright | offense | 9 | 1 | 0.4% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.0% / 1.4% | 1.3 |
| Hayden Eppler | offense | 5 | 2 | 1.0% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 1.1 |
| Danika Clark | offense | 8 | 7 | 3.9% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 1.0 |
| Ava Simonpietri | offense | 9 | 4 | 2.2% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% / 1.5% | 1.0 |
| Avaleigh Kuhns | defense | 9 | 2 | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 0.0% / 1.9% | 0.7 |
| Kayleigh Schumer | defense | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 0.0% / 1.8% | 0.6 |
| Nikhita Nevil | offense | 6 | 4 | 2.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 0.6 |
| Leah Wright | offense | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% / 1.2% | 0.3 |
| Brooklyn Klenc | offense | 2 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 0.2 |
| Raegan Hankins | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% / 0.7% | 0.2 |
| Cali Moller | offense | 1 | 1 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.1 |
Projected matchups (2027)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Word | 12.9 | blowout |
| Nerinx Hall | 12.5 | blowout |
| Notre Dame | 11.7 | blowout |
| Clayton | 10.9 | blowout |
| Parkway North | 10.5 | blowout |
| Parkway Central | 10.4 | blowout |
| Belleville West | 10.2 | blowout |
| Parkway South | 10.2 | blowout |
| Francis Howell | 9.6 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 9.5 | — |
| Pattonville | 9.4 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 9.3 | — |
| Marquette | 9.1 | — |
| Lindbergh | 8.9 | — |
| Kirkwood | 8.9 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 8.7 | — |
| Webster Groves | 8.4 | — |
| St. Dominic | 8.3 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 8.3 | — |
| Parkway West | 8.1 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 7.8 | — |
| Northwest | 7.7 | — |
| O'Fallon | 7.2 | — |
| Fox High School | 6.8 | — |
| Lafayette | 6.7 | — |
| Oakville | 6.4 | — |
| Edwardsville | 5.0 | — |
| Visitation Academy | 3.8 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | 3.8 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | 3.5 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | 3.3 | — |
| John Burroughs | 3.0 | — |
| Westminster | 2.6 | — |
| MICDS | 0.9 | — |
| Eureka | -0.4 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2027,
"team_name": "Wentzville",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 15,
"current_composite_rank": 2,
"recommended_rank": 14,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": -1,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 58.06,
"score_drop": 15.1,
"returning_production_share": 0.703,
"departure_loss_pct": 15.1,
"legacy_prior": 0.807,
"seniors_count": 9,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": "roster_margin_split",
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": "roster_margin_split",
"flag_count": 1,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": "medium",
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Recommend rank 14 (prior finish 15). Flagged for board review: roster_margin_split. Suggested follow-up: margin_vs_roster_review.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 14,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": 14,
"actual_finish_rank": null,
"projection_error": null,
"is_backtest": false,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"Wentzville\", \"avg_margin\": \"7.0\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 14 (prior finish 15). Flagged for board review: roster_margin_split. Suggested follow-up: margin_vs_roster_review.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"14\", \"flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split\", \"flag_count\": \"1\", \"margin_std\": \"4.65\", \"score_drop\": \"15.1\", \"top8_games\": \"0\", \"margin_wins\": \"10\", \"top16_games\": \"2\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.807\", \"margin_games\": \"11\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"margin_losses\": \"1\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"9\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split\", \"review_priority\": \"medium\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"45.0\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"0.0\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"14\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.257\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"-1\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"6.55\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"14\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"15\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"0.0\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"15.1\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.848\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"1.0\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"4.24\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"1.2\", \"projected_composite\": \"58.06\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"-1\", \"composite_split_note\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.848\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"2\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.868\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"4.74\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"84.93\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"14\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.983\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.703\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"2\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 2,
"projected_margin_rating": 4.74,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": 1.0,
"projected_turnover_index": 84.93,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "wentzville",
"effective_rank": 14,
"final_rank_resolved": 14
}