Parkway Central
prior #28 · recommended #27 · final #27 legacy 0.36Margin strength
-10.7
vs top-16 avg -10.7
Projected margin
-12.5
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.389
as of 2026-05-30
Offense
57.97
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
59.77
domain stat
Possession
66.13
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #28
- Recommended (model)
- #27
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #27
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #31
- Projected margin rating
- -12.5
- Departure loss %
- 15.6%
- Returning production share
- 70.3%
- Departure loss
- 15.6%
- Seniors departing
- 3
- Awards points
- +6 returning · −6 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.36
Awards
Departing
Ella Wujcik (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Mia Behrends (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Taryn Provinse (all conference: Red; 1st Team)
Returning
Anika Moolsintong (all conference: Red; 2nd Team); Anna Day (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention); Claire Emerson (all conference: Red; 2nd Team); Naomi Wagner (all conference: Red; 2nd Team); Shani Rodin (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention); Victoria Knolhoff (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention)
Departing players (2025-26)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taryn Provinse | — | 23 | 21.0% | 16.8% | 10.7% | 0.5% | 8.0% |
| Mia Behrends | — | 31 | 28.2% | 24.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.8% |
| Ella Wujcik | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
Player impact (2025-26)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naomi Wagner | offense | 15 | 19 | 12.8% | 35.0% | 2.7% | 0.0% / 2.7% | 10.1 |
| Anna Day | goalie | 14 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 46.5% | 46.5% / 0.0% | 9.7 |
| Taryn Provinse | offense | 12 | 31 | 21.0% | 14.7% | 3.2% | 0.0% / 3.2% | 7.8 |
| Claire Emerson | offense | 14 | 24 | 15.4% | 17.9% | 5.4% | 0.0% / 5.4% | 7.8 |
| Mia Behrends | offense | 15 | 46 | 28.2% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% / 2.2% | 6.4 |
| Anika Moolsintong | offense | 14 | 4 | 1.8% | 15.3% | 3.4% | 0.0% / 3.4% | 4.1 |
| Victoria Knolhoff | offense | 15 | 5 | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 0.0% / 4.8% | 2.4 |
| Shani Rodin | offense | 11 | 11 | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.0% / 1.1% | 2.1 |
| Clara Carmody | offense | 6 | 8 | 4.2% | 0.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% / 0.4% | 2.1 |
| Olivia Tucker | offense | 14 | 8 | 5.4% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 0.0% / 1.9% | 1.5 |
| Ella Wujcik | defense | 15 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.9% | 5.3% | 0.0% / 5.3% | 1.3 |
| Julia Enz | offense | 13 | 4 | 2.4% | 0.0% | 2.5% | 0.0% / 2.5% | 1.0 |
| Claire Jones | offense | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.0% / 1.5% | 1.0 |
| Charlotte Hardin | defense | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 3.4% | 0.0% / 3.4% | 0.9 |
| Ilse Krakos | offense | 8 | 1 | 0.4% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% / 1.2% | 0.7 |
| Lauren Franey | goalie | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.1% | 3.1% / 0.0% | 0.6 |
| Julia Harris | defense | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 0.0% / 2.2% | 0.5 |
| Butero Abby | defense | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.3% | 0.0% / 2.3% | 0.5 |
| Lucy Bridge | defense | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 0.2 |
| Tessa Wall | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.1 |
| Bri Scott | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.1 |
| Claire Dorn | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.1 |
| Brooke Lynn | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Abby Butero | defense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Amelia Mihai | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2027)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Eureka | -10.8 | blowout |
| Wentzville | -10.4 | blowout |
| MICDS | -9.5 | — |
| Westminster | -7.8 | — |
| John Burroughs | -7.4 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -7.1 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -6.8 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -6.6 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -6.5 | — |
| Edwardsville | -5.3 | — |
| Oakville | -3.9 | — |
| Lafayette | -3.6 | — |
| Fox High School | -3.6 | — |
| O'Fallon | -3.1 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 2.6 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | -2.6 | — |
| Northwest | -2.6 | — |
| Parkway West | -2.3 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 2.1 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | -2.1 | — |
| St. Dominic | -2.1 | — |
| Webster Groves | -2.0 | — |
| Francis Howell North | -1.7 | — |
| Kirkwood | -1.5 | — |
| Lindbergh | -1.5 | — |
| Marquette | -1.3 | — |
| Notre Dame | 1.3 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | -1.0 | — |
| Pattonville | -0.9 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | -0.9 | — |
| Francis Howell | -0.7 | — |
| Clayton | 0.6 | — |
| Parkway North | 0.2 | — |
| Belleville West | -0.2 | — |
| Parkway South | -0.2 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2027,
"team_name": "Parkway Central",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 28,
"current_composite_rank": 34,
"recommended_rank": 27,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": -1,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 51.79,
"score_drop": 15.6,
"returning_production_share": 0.703,
"departure_loss_pct": 15.6,
"legacy_prior": 0.362,
"seniors_count": 3,
"awards_points": 12,
"departing_awards_points": 6,
"returning_awards_points": 6,
"flag_codes": null,
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 0,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": null,
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 27,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": 27,
"actual_finish_rank": null,
"projection_error": null,
"is_backtest": false,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"Parkway Central\", \"avg_margin\": \"-2.93\", \"board_note\": \"Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"27\", \"flag_codes\": \"\", \"flag_count\": \"0\", \"margin_std\": \"7.5\", \"score_drop\": \"15.6\", \"top8_games\": \"0\", \"margin_wins\": \"4\", \"top16_games\": \"3\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.362\", \"margin_games\": \"15\", \"awards_points\": \"12\", \"margin_losses\": \"11\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"3\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"3.5\", \"departing_awards\": \"Ella Wujcik (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Mia Behrends (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Taryn Provinse (all conference: Red; 1st Team)\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"35.1\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"27\", \"returning_awards\": \"Anika Moolsintong (all conference: Red; 2nd Team); Anna Day (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention); Claire Emerson (all conference: Red; 2nd Team); Naomi Wagner (all conference: Red; 2nd Team); Shani Rodin (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention); Victoria Knolhoff (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention)\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.211\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"-1\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"-2.8\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"27\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"28\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"0.0\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"15.6\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.854\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"-10.67\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"1.53\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"7.1\", \"projected_composite\": \"51.79\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"-1\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.854\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"True\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"34\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.588\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"6\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-12.54\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"6\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"feeder_pair_offense;late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"84.36\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"27\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.459\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.703\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"31\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 31,
"projected_margin_rating": -12.54,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": -10.67,
"projected_turnover_index": 84.36,
"departing_awards": "Ella Wujcik (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Mia Behrends (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Taryn Provinse (all conference: Red; 1st Team)",
"returning_awards": "Anika Moolsintong (all conference: Red; 2nd Team); Anna Day (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention); Claire Emerson (all conference: Red; 2nd Team); Naomi Wagner (all conference: Red; 2nd Team); Shani Rodin (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention); Victoria Knolhoff (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention)",
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "parkway-central",
"effective_rank": 27,
"final_rank_resolved": 27
}