Lindbergh
prior #21 · recommended #21 · final #21 legacy 0.33Margin strength
-7.5
vs top-16 avg -7.5
Projected margin
-10.0
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.444
as of 2026-05-30
Offense
57.94
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
59.21
domain stat
Possession
50.44
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #21
- Recommended (model)
- #21
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #21
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #23
- Projected margin rating
- -10.0
- Departure loss %
- 21.2%
- Returning production share
- 63.6%
- Departure loss
- 21.2%
- Seniors departing
- 4
- Awards points
- +7 returning · −4 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.33
Awards
Departing
Addie Rohrbach (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Mariah Jackson (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Stella Hadziselimovic (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention)
Returning
Lexi Salata (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Elaina Meyer (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Bella Benson (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention); Piper Wilmot (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Sara Polesel (all conference: Green; 2nd Team)
Departing players (2025-26)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Addie Rohrbach | — | 32 | 28.3% | 24.2% | 25.2% | 1.6% | 14.2% |
| Stella Hadziselimovic | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 18.7% | 5.2% |
| Mariah Jackson | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.7% | 1.0% |
| Charlie Phillips | — | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% |
Player impact (2025-26)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Addie Rohrbach | offense | 15 | 42 | 28.3% | 29.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% / 4.2% | 11.0 |
| Elaina Meyer | offense | 16 | 19 | 11.9% | 28.0% | 5.8% | 0.0% / 5.8% | 7.8 |
| Sierra Dolezal | goalie | 13 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 29.0% | 28.9% / 0.1% | 6.0 |
| Stella Hadziselimovic | goalie | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 26.3% | 26.1% / 0.2% | 5.5 |
| Lexi Salata | offense | 16 | 25 | 15.6% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 0.0% / 3.0% | 4.1 |
| Lexie Peterson | offense | 11 | 9 | 5.1% | 14.7% | 1.5% | 0.0% / 1.5% | 3.6 |
| Piper Wilmot | offense | 13 | 12 | 6.6% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 0.0% / 3.0% | 3.4 |
| Bella Benson | offense | 13 | 16 | 10.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.0% / 2.0% | 3.1 |
| Finnley Placke | offense | 13 | 20 | 9.7% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.0% / 2.0% | 3.0 |
| Mariah Jackson | defense | 13 | 1 | 0.4% | 1.4% | 6.2% | 0.0% / 6.2% | 1.5 |
| Sara Polesel | offense | 13 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.9% | 5.7% | 0.0% / 5.7% | 1.4 |
| Charlie Phillips | defense | 10 | 4 | 2.3% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 0.0% / 3.4% | 1.4 |
| Mila LaMar | defense | 11 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% / 4.0% | 0.8 |
| Mika Kosuge | offense | 6 | 6 | 2.9% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.6 |
| Lia Emo | offense | 8 | 3 | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 0.6 |
| Bella Vescovo | defense | 6 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.0% / 1.2% | 0.4 |
| Charlotte Otte | offense | 5 | 1 | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.3 |
| Olivia Lange | defense | 11 | 6 | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 0.2 |
| Izzy Yarbrough | defense | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 0.2 |
Projected matchups (2027)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Eureka | -9.3 | — |
| Wentzville | -8.9 | — |
| MICDS | -8.0 | — |
| Westminster | -6.3 | — |
| John Burroughs | -5.9 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -5.6 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -5.3 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -5.1 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -5.0 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 4.1 | — |
| Edwardsville | -3.8 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 3.6 | — |
| Notre Dame | 2.8 | — |
| Oakville | -2.4 | — |
| Lafayette | -2.1 | — |
| Fox High School | -2.1 | — |
| Clayton | 2.1 | — |
| Parkway North | 1.7 | — |
| O'Fallon | -1.6 | — |
| Parkway Central | 1.5 | — |
| Belleville West | 1.3 | — |
| Parkway South | 1.3 | — |
| Northwest | -1.1 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | -1.1 | — |
| Parkway West | -0.8 | — |
| Francis Howell | 0.8 | — |
| St. Dominic | -0.6 | — |
| Pattonville | 0.6 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | -0.6 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 0.6 | — |
| Webster Groves | -0.5 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 0.5 | — |
| Marquette | 0.2 | — |
| Francis Howell North | -0.2 | — |
| Kirkwood | 0.0 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2027,
"team_name": "Lindbergh",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 21,
"current_composite_rank": 22,
"recommended_rank": 21,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 0,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 44.34,
"score_drop": 21.2,
"returning_production_share": 0.636,
"departure_loss_pct": 21.2,
"legacy_prior": 0.326,
"seniors_count": 4,
"awards_points": 11,
"departing_awards_points": 4,
"returning_awards_points": 7,
"flag_codes": null,
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 0,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": null,
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 21,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": 21,
"actual_finish_rank": null,
"projection_error": null,
"is_backtest": false,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"Lindbergh\", \"avg_margin\": \"1.88\", \"board_note\": \"Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"21\", \"flag_codes\": \"\", \"flag_count\": \"0\", \"margin_std\": \"7.96\", \"score_drop\": \"21.2\", \"top8_games\": \"1\", \"margin_wins\": \"7\", \"top16_games\": \"4\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.326\", \"margin_games\": \"16\", \"awards_points\": \"11\", \"margin_losses\": \"9\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"4\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"0-1\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"25.0\", \"departing_awards\": \"Addie Rohrbach (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Mariah Jackson (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Stella Hadziselimovic (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention)\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"19.1\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"21\", \"returning_awards\": \"Lexi Salata (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Elaina Meyer (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Bella Benson (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention); Piper Wilmot (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Sara Polesel (all conference: Green; 2nd Team)\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.15\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"1.56\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"21\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"21\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"-13.0\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"21.2\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.662\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"-7.5\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"4.2\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"18.1\", \"projected_composite\": \"44.34\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.662\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"True\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"22\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.64\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"4\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-10.04\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"7\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"feeder_pair_offense;late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"78.81\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"21\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.676\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.636\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"23\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 23,
"projected_margin_rating": -10.04,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": -7.5,
"projected_turnover_index": 78.81,
"departing_awards": "Addie Rohrbach (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Mariah Jackson (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Stella Hadziselimovic (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention)",
"returning_awards": "Lexi Salata (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Elaina Meyer (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Bella Benson (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention); Piper Wilmot (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Sara Polesel (all conference: Green; 2nd Team)",
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "lindbergh",
"effective_rank": 21,
"final_rank_resolved": 21
}