Edwardsville
prior #36 · recommended #35 · final #35Margin strength
-0.5
vs top-16 avg -15.0
Projected margin
-3.7
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.394
as of 2026-05-30
Offense
49.11
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
63.09
domain stat
Possession
39.61
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #36
- Recommended (model)
- #35
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #35
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #10
- Projected margin rating
- -3.7
- Departure loss %
- 26.7%
- Returning production share
- 39.7%
- Departure loss
- 26.7%
- Seniors departing
- 10
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.00
Info flags:
roster_margin_split
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2025-26)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia Jacoby | — | 28 | 47.5% | 43.3% | 37.9% | 0.0% | 23.2% |
| Kelise Garrett | — | 8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 12.2% | 0.0% | 3.5% |
| Elise Larrew | — | 0 | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Perl | — | 0 | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2025-26)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia Jacoby | offense | 12 | 53 | 47.5% | 41.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 13.1 |
| MacKenzye Engelmann | goalie | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 30.3% | 30.3% / 0.0% | 6.7 |
| Elsa Schmidt | offense | 11 | 24 | 20.1% | 20.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 5.8 |
| Ady Barnett | goalie | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 24.7% | 24.7% / 0.0% | 5.5 |
| Mira Heckler | offense | 9 | 12 | 9.9% | 12.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 3.2 |
| Kelise Garrett | defense | 8 | 14 | 14.6% | 15.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 1.8 |
| Aida Moussali | offense | 3 | 3 | 2.0% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.6 |
| Lydia Blind | offense | 2 | 2 | 1.3% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.5 |
| Campbell Huffmann | offense | 4 | 2 | 1.3% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.5 |
| Sarah Perl | offense | 1 | 2 | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.3 |
| Brynley Schneider | offense | 1 | 1 | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.3 |
| Elise Larrew | offense | 1 | 1 | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.3 |
| Olive Linhorst | defense | 2 | 1 | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.1 |
Projected matchups (2027)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Word | 7.9 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 7.4 | — |
| Notre Dame | 6.6 | — |
| Clayton | 5.9 | — |
| Eureka | -5.5 | — |
| Parkway North | 5.5 | — |
| Parkway Central | 5.3 | — |
| Parkway South | 5.2 | — |
| Belleville West | 5.1 | — |
| Wentzville | -5.0 | — |
| Francis Howell | 4.6 | — |
| Pattonville | 4.4 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 4.4 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 4.3 | — |
| MICDS | -4.1 | — |
| Marquette | 4.1 | — |
| Lindbergh | 3.8 | — |
| Kirkwood | 3.8 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 3.7 | — |
| Webster Groves | 3.3 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 3.2 | — |
| St. Dominic | 3.2 | — |
| Parkway West | 3.1 | — |
| Northwest | 2.7 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 2.7 | — |
| Westminster | -2.5 | — |
| O'Fallon | 2.2 | — |
| John Burroughs | -2.0 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -1.8 | — |
| Fox High School | 1.8 | — |
| Lafayette | 1.7 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -1.5 | — |
| Oakville | 1.4 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -1.3 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -1.2 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2027,
"team_name": "Edwardsville",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 36,
"current_composite_rank": 10,
"recommended_rank": 35,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": -1,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 39.63,
"score_drop": 26.7,
"returning_production_share": 0.397,
"departure_loss_pct": 26.7,
"legacy_prior": 0.0,
"seniors_count": 10,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": "roster_margin_split",
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": "roster_margin_split",
"flag_count": 1,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": "medium",
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Recommend rank 35 (prior finish 36). Flagged for board review: roster_margin_split. Suggested follow-up: margin_vs_roster_review.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 35,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": 35,
"actual_finish_rank": null,
"projection_error": null,
"is_backtest": false,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"Edwardsville\", \"avg_margin\": \"-0.62\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 35 (prior finish 36). Flagged for board review: roster_margin_split. Suggested follow-up: margin_vs_roster_review.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"35\", \"flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split\", \"flag_count\": \"1\", \"margin_std\": \"11.15\", \"score_drop\": \"26.7\", \"top8_games\": \"2\", \"margin_wins\": \"6\", \"top16_games\": \"2\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.0\", \"margin_games\": \"13\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"margin_losses\": \"7\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"10\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"0-2\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split\", \"review_priority\": \"medium\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"0.0\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"38.0\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"35\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.27\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"-1\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"-0.46\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"35\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"36\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"-15.0\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"26.7\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.444\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"-15.0\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"2.83\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"42.0\", \"projected_composite\": \"39.63\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"-1\", \"composite_split_note\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.444\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"10\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.774\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-3.66\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"73.33\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"35\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.45\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.397\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"10\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 10,
"projected_margin_rating": -3.66,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": -15.0,
"projected_turnover_index": 73.33,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "edwardsville",
"effective_rank": 35,
"final_rank_resolved": 35
}