Marquette
prior #14 · recommended #15 · final #15 legacy 0.91Margin strength
-6.9
vs top-16 avg -6.9
Projected margin
-10.4
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.546
as of 2026-05-30
Offense
51.65
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
59.03
domain stat
Possession
57.87
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #14
- Recommended (model)
- #15
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #15
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #24
- Projected margin rating
- -10.4
- Departure loss %
- 29.3%
- Returning production share
- 53.4%
- Departure loss
- 29.3%
- Seniors departing
- 6
- Awards points
- +5 returning · −9 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.91
Info flags:
roster_margin_split
Awards
Departing
Sydney Kronauge (all state hm: Honorable Mention); Sydney Kronauge (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Abby Welch (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Karina Lay (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Phoebe Yoder (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team)
Returning
Brynn Clark (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Rebecca Bergman (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Hailey Hasler (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention)
Departing players (2025-26)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abby Welch | — | 17 | 13.2% | 9.0% | 33.1% | 1.2% | 12.2% |
| Sydney Kronauge | — | 41 | 31.5% | 27.4% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 9.2% |
| Phoebe Yoder | — | 23 | 17.9% | 13.8% | 6.3% | 0.9% | 5.9% |
| Karina Lay | — | 4 | 3.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.1% | 1.4% |
| Avery Pitt | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| Thea Shepherd | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2025-26)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brynn Clark | goalie | 15 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 55.6% | 55.0% / 0.6% | 11.5 |
| Rebecca Bergman | offense | 15 | 38 | 28.5% | 27.1% | 6.0% | 0.0% / 6.0% | 11.1 |
| Abby Welch | offense | 14 | 16 | 13.2% | 37.1% | 3.8% | 0.0% / 3.8% | 9.6 |
| Sydney Kronauge | offense | 15 | 42 | 31.5% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 0.0% / 5.1% | 7.9 |
| Phoebe Yoder | offense | 14 | 24 | 17.9% | 10.3% | 3.6% | 0.0% / 3.6% | 5.8 |
| Hailey Hasler | defense | 13 | 0 | 0.0% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 0.0% / 3.3% | 2.8 |
| Karina Lay | offense | 14 | 4 | 3.2% | 1.1% | 7.7% | 0.0% / 7.7% | 2.4 |
| Anna Saunders | offense | 11 | 2 | 1.3% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 0.0% / 3.5% | 1.3 |
| Avery Pitt | defense | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.4% | 4.7% | 0.0% / 4.7% | 1.2 |
| Bella Russell | offense | 10 | 3 | 2.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% / 1.2% | 0.8 |
| Hannah Wilson | offense | 7 | 4 | 2.3% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% / 1.2% | 0.7 |
| Elise Kampschroeder | defense | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% / 0.7% | 0.3 |
| Thea Shepherd | defense | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% / 1.4% | 0.3 |
| Lillian Ott | offense | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% / 1.2% | 0.2 |
| Grace Prunty | defense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.1 |
| Jada Manning | defense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.1 |
| Ana Singh | offense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.1 |
| Ridhi Mora | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2027)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Eureka | -9.5 | — |
| Wentzville | -9.1 | — |
| MICDS | -8.2 | — |
| Westminster | -6.5 | — |
| John Burroughs | -6.1 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -5.8 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -5.6 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -5.3 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -5.3 | — |
| Edwardsville | -4.1 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 3.8 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 3.4 | — |
| Oakville | -2.7 | — |
| Notre Dame | 2.6 | — |
| Lafayette | -2.4 | — |
| Fox High School | -2.3 | — |
| O'Fallon | -1.9 | — |
| Clayton | 1.8 | — |
| Northwest | -1.4 | — |
| Parkway North | 1.4 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | -1.3 | — |
| Parkway Central | 1.3 | — |
| Belleville West | 1.1 | — |
| Parkway South | 1.1 | — |
| Parkway West | -1.0 | — |
| St. Dominic | -0.8 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | -0.8 | — |
| Webster Groves | -0.7 | — |
| Francis Howell | 0.5 | — |
| Francis Howell North | -0.4 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 0.4 | — |
| Pattonville | 0.3 | — |
| Lindbergh | -0.2 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 0.2 | — |
| Kirkwood | -0.2 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2027,
"team_name": "Marquette",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 14,
"current_composite_rank": 18,
"recommended_rank": 15,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 1,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 40.65,
"score_drop": 29.3,
"returning_production_share": 0.534,
"departure_loss_pct": 29.3,
"legacy_prior": 0.91,
"seniors_count": 6,
"awards_points": 14,
"departing_awards_points": 9,
"returning_awards_points": 5,
"flag_codes": "roster_margin_split",
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": "roster_margin_split",
"flag_count": 1,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": "medium",
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Recommend rank 15 (prior finish 14). Flagged for board review: roster_margin_split. Suggested follow-up: margin_vs_roster_review.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 15,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": 15,
"actual_finish_rank": null,
"projection_error": null,
"is_backtest": false,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"Marquette\", \"avg_margin\": \"-3.33\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 15 (prior finish 14). Flagged for board review: roster_margin_split. Suggested follow-up: margin_vs_roster_review.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.333\", \"final_rank\": \"15\", \"flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split\", \"flag_count\": \"1\", \"margin_std\": \"8.14\", \"score_drop\": \"29.3\", \"top8_games\": \"6\", \"margin_wins\": \"6\", \"top16_games\": \"11\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.91\", \"margin_games\": \"15\", \"awards_points\": \"14\", \"margin_losses\": \"9\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"6\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"0-6\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split\", \"review_priority\": \"medium\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"11.8\", \"departing_awards\": \"Sydney Kronauge (all state hm: Honorable Mention); Sydney Kronauge (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Abby Welch (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Karina Lay (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Phoebe Yoder (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team)\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"38.0\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"15\", \"returning_awards\": \"Brynn Clark (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Rebecca Bergman (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Hailey Hasler (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention)\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.135\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"1\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"-2.67\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"15\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"14\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"-10.0\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"29.3\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.422\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"-6.91\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"6.17\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"35.4\", \"projected_composite\": \"40.65\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"1\", \"composite_split_note\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.422\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"True\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"18\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.333\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"9\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-10.43\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"5\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"feeder_pair_offense;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"70.73\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"15\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.315\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.534\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"24\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 24,
"projected_margin_rating": -10.43,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": -6.91,
"projected_turnover_index": 70.73,
"departing_awards": "Sydney Kronauge (all state hm: Honorable Mention); Sydney Kronauge (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Abby Welch (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Karina Lay (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Phoebe Yoder (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team)",
"returning_awards": "Brynn Clark (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Rebecca Bergman (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Hailey Hasler (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention)",
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "marquette",
"effective_rank": 15,
"final_rank_resolved": 15
}