Francis Howell
prior #24 · recommended #26 · final #26 legacy 0.55Margin strength
-7.6
vs top-16 avg -7.6
Projected margin
-11.3
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.475
as of 2026-05-30
Offense
53.01
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
61.45
domain stat
Possession
58.42
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #24
- Recommended (model)
- #25
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #26
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #28
- Projected margin rating
- -11.3
- Departure loss %
- 30.8%
- Returning production share
- 47.9%
- Departure loss
- 30.8%
- Seniors departing
- 7
- Awards points
- +3 returning · −2 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.55
Awards
Departing
Morgan Nickell (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Riese Grier (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention)
Returning
Audrey Cornett (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Rowan Clark (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention)
Departing players (2025-26)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leah Sorensen | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 47.7% | 12.7% |
| Riese Grier | — | 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 30.0% | 4.4% | 9.2% |
| Morgan Nickell | — | 10 | 10.6% | 6.4% | 24.9% | 0.0% | 8.3% |
| Nina Savio | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| Kendall Witt | — | 1 | 1.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2025-26)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leah Sorensen | goalie | 13 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 55.3% | 55.0% / 0.3% | 11.9 |
| Audrey Cornett | offense | 13 | 52 | 43.1% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 0.0% / 5.3% | 9.8 |
| Morgan Nickell | offense | 13 | 12 | 10.6% | 28.9% | 2.7% | 0.0% / 2.7% | 7.6 |
| Riese Grier | defense | 13 | 7 | 5.8% | 32.9% | 6.8% | 0.0% / 6.8% | 7.2 |
| Rowan Clark | offense | 13 | 14 | 10.6% | 10.3% | 3.5% | 0.0% / 3.5% | 4.5 |
| Cameron Vaughn | offense | 12 | 5 | 3.9% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 0.0% / 2.9% | 3.1 |
| Katie Clark | offense | 13 | 7 | 6.2% | 5.7% | 1.8% | 0.0% / 1.8% | 2.5 |
| Lily Combs | offense | 7 | 7 | 6.9% | 5.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% / 0.8% | 2.4 |
| Addison Poettker | offense | 11 | 13 | 9.4% | 0.7% | 2.3% | 0.0% / 2.3% | 2.4 |
| Nina Savio | defense | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% / 4.8% | 1.2 |
| Grace Piper | defense | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.8% | 4.6% | 0.0% / 4.6% | 1.1 |
| Sonali Joshi | defense | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.8% | 0.0% / 4.8% | 1.0 |
| Kendall Witt | offense | 9 | 3 | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 0.6 |
| Sophia Counts | defense | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.6% | 0.0% / 2.6% | 0.6 |
| Bella Geffre | offense | 5 | 2 | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 0.5 |
| Avery Reeder | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2027)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Eureka | -10.1 | blowout |
| Wentzville | -9.6 | — |
| MICDS | -8.7 | — |
| Westminster | -7.1 | — |
| John Burroughs | -6.6 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -6.3 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -6.1 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -5.9 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -5.8 | — |
| Edwardsville | -4.6 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 3.3 | — |
| Oakville | -3.2 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 2.9 | — |
| Lafayette | -2.9 | — |
| Fox High School | -2.8 | — |
| O'Fallon | -2.4 | — |
| Notre Dame | 2.1 | — |
| Northwest | -1.9 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | -1.8 | — |
| Parkway West | -1.5 | — |
| St. Dominic | -1.4 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | -1.4 | — |
| Clayton | 1.3 | — |
| Webster Groves | -1.3 | — |
| Francis Howell North | -0.9 | — |
| Parkway North | 0.9 | — |
| Lindbergh | -0.8 | — |
| Kirkwood | -0.8 | — |
| Parkway Central | 0.7 | — |
| Parkway South | 0.6 | — |
| Belleville West | 0.5 | — |
| Marquette | -0.5 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | -0.3 | — |
| Pattonville | -0.2 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | -0.1 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2027,
"team_name": "Francis Howell",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 24,
"current_composite_rank": 23,
"recommended_rank": 25,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 1,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 39.77,
"score_drop": 30.8,
"returning_production_share": 0.479,
"departure_loss_pct": 30.8,
"legacy_prior": 0.55,
"seniors_count": 7,
"awards_points": 5,
"departing_awards_points": 2,
"returning_awards_points": 3,
"flag_codes": null,
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 0,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": null,
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 26,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 1,
"league_order_rank": 26,
"actual_finish_rank": null,
"projection_error": null,
"is_backtest": false,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"Francis Howell\", \"avg_margin\": \"-3.0\", \"board_note\": \"Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"26\", \"flag_codes\": \"\", \"flag_count\": \"0\", \"margin_std\": \"7.89\", \"score_drop\": \"30.8\", \"top8_games\": \"2\", \"margin_wins\": \"5\", \"top16_games\": \"8\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.55\", \"margin_games\": \"14\", \"awards_points\": \"5\", \"margin_losses\": \"9\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"7\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"0-2\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"45.0\", \"departing_awards\": \"Morgan Nickell (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Riese Grier (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention)\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"4.7\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"25\", \"returning_awards\": \"Audrey Cornett (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Rowan Clark (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention)\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.418\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"2\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"-2.79\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"26\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"24\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"-12.5\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"30.8\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.391\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"1\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"-7.62\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"4.63\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"41.5\", \"projected_composite\": \"39.77\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"1\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.391\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"23\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.725\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"2\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-11.32\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"3\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"69.17\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"26\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.806\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.479\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"28\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 28,
"projected_margin_rating": -11.32,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": -7.62,
"projected_turnover_index": 69.17,
"departing_awards": "Morgan Nickell (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Riese Grier (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention)",
"returning_awards": "Audrey Cornett (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Rowan Clark (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention)",
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "francis-howell",
"effective_rank": 26,
"final_rank_resolved": 26
}