Clayton
prior #27 · recommended #28 · final #28 legacy 0.39Margin strength
-9.8
vs top-16 avg -9.8
Projected margin
-13.5
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.431
as of 2026-05-30
Offense
44.78
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
62.77
domain stat
Possession
40.43
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #27
- Recommended (model)
- #28
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #28
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #33
- Projected margin rating
- -13.5
- Departure loss %
- 31.0%
- Returning production share
- 46.2%
- Departure loss
- 31.0%
- Seniors departing
- 10
- Awards points
- +6 returning · −6 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.39
Awards
Departing
Naomi Zaidman (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Taylor Flotken (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Claire Downs (all conference: Red; 2nd Team); Marley Dockman (all conference: Red; 2nd Team)
Returning
Lydia Lee (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Charlotte Whitney (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention); Genevieve Bueno Perkin (all conference: Red; 2nd Team); Giselle Hausladen (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention); Lola Duffy (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention)
Departing players (2025-26)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Flotken | — | 23 | 35.7% | 31.5% | 47.0% | 3.4% | 20.2% |
| Sofia Inshirah | — | 7 | 11.2% | 7.0% | 27.2% | 0.0% | 8.4% |
| Claire Downs | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.5% | 1.4% |
| Naomi Zaidman | — | 8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.0% | 1.0% |
| Emi Takao | — | 1 | 1.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Trodus | — | 0 | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maggie Kabargina | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marley Dockman | — | 1 | 1.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noni Murphy | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2025-26)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Flotken | offense | 13 | 36 | 35.7% | 50.9% | 6.0% | 0.0% / 6.0% | 13.1 |
| Addison Dumlao | goalie | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 34.8% | 34.8% / 0.0% | 7.6 |
| Sofia Inshirah | offense | 15 | 13 | 11.2% | 31.2% | 2.6% | 0.0% / 2.6% | 6.1 |
| Mariana Paz Gonzalez | goalie | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 20.2% | 20.2% / 0.0% | 4.4 |
| Genevieve Bueno Perkin | offense | 12 | 15 | 14.7% | 10.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 3.8 |
| Lydia Lee | offense | 14 | 10 | 8.6% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.0% / 2.5% | 2.3 |
| Kate Kubat | defense | 15 | 1 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 8.7% | 0.0% / 8.7% | 1.9 |
| Claire Downs | defense | 14 | 1 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 7.9% | 0.0% / 7.9% | 1.8 |
| Naomi Zaidman | defense | 13 | 12 | 12.7% | 0.0% | 6.4% | 0.0% / 6.4% | 1.4 |
| Charlotte Whitney | offense | 11 | 2 | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.0% / 1.6% | 1.0 |
| Lola Duffy | defense | 13 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.9% | 0.0% / 2.9% | 0.6 |
| Laci Leech | offense | 3 | 4 | 3.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.6 |
| Emi Takao | offense | 4 | 2 | 1.9% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 0.5 |
| Marley Dockman | offense | 9 | 3 | 1.7% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% / 0.7% | 0.4 |
| Riley Poole | offense | 7 | 2 | 2.2% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.4 |
| Aaryn Weston | offense | 5 | 1 | 1.1% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% / 1.0% | 0.4 |
| Giselle Hausladen | offense | 8 | 1 | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.3 |
| Lauren Trodus | offense | 6 | 1 | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% / 0.8% | 0.3 |
| Lauren Weigers | offense | 4 | 1 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.2 |
| Noni Murphy | offense | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 0.1 |
| Maggie Kabargina | defense | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 0.1 |
| Olsen | offense | 2 | 1 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.1 |
Projected matchups (2027)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Eureka | -11.3 | blowout |
| Wentzville | -10.9 | blowout |
| MICDS | -10.0 | blowout |
| Westminster | -8.4 | — |
| John Burroughs | -7.9 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -7.6 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -7.4 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -7.2 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -7.1 | — |
| Edwardsville | -5.9 | — |
| Oakville | -4.5 | — |
| Lafayette | -4.2 | — |
| Fox High School | -4.1 | — |
| O'Fallon | -3.7 | — |
| Northwest | -3.2 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | -3.1 | — |
| Parkway West | -2.8 | — |
| St. Dominic | -2.7 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | -2.7 | — |
| Webster Groves | -2.6 | — |
| Francis Howell North | -2.2 | — |
| Lindbergh | -2.1 | — |
| Kirkwood | -2.1 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 2.0 | — |
| Marquette | -1.8 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 1.6 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | -1.6 | — |
| Pattonville | -1.5 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | -1.4 | — |
| Francis Howell | -1.3 | — |
| Belleville West | -0.8 | — |
| Notre Dame | 0.8 | — |
| Parkway South | -0.7 | — |
| Parkway Central | -0.6 | — |
| Parkway North | -0.4 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2027,
"team_name": "Clayton",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 27,
"current_composite_rank": 31,
"recommended_rank": 28,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 1,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 36.38,
"score_drop": 31.0,
"returning_production_share": 0.462,
"departure_loss_pct": 31.0,
"legacy_prior": 0.393,
"seniors_count": 10,
"awards_points": 15,
"departing_awards_points": 6,
"returning_awards_points": 6,
"flag_codes": null,
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 0,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": null,
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 28,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": 28,
"actual_finish_rank": null,
"projection_error": null,
"is_backtest": false,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"Clayton\", \"avg_margin\": \"-1.25\", \"board_note\": \"Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"28\", \"flag_codes\": \"\", \"flag_count\": \"0\", \"margin_std\": \"7.36\", \"score_drop\": \"31.0\", \"top8_games\": \"1\", \"margin_wins\": \"8\", \"top16_games\": \"4\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.393\", \"margin_games\": \"16\", \"awards_points\": \"15\", \"margin_losses\": \"8\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"10\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"0-1\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"12.9\", \"departing_awards\": \"Naomi Zaidman (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Taylor Flotken (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Claire Downs (all conference: Red; 2nd Team); Marley Dockman (all conference: Red; 2nd Team)\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"34.9\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"28\", \"returning_awards\": \"Lydia Lee (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Charlotte Whitney (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention); Genevieve Bueno Perkin (all conference: Red; 2nd Team); Giselle Hausladen (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention); Lola Duffy (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention)\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.302\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"1\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"-1.06\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"28\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"27\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"-11.0\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"31.0\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.185\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"-9.75\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"3.95\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"42.0\", \"projected_composite\": \"36.38\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"1\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.185\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"31\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.531\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"6\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-13.47\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"6\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"69.04\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"28\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.421\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.462\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"33\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 33,
"projected_margin_rating": -13.47,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": -9.75,
"projected_turnover_index": 69.04,
"departing_awards": "Naomi Zaidman (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Taylor Flotken (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Claire Downs (all conference: Red; 2nd Team); Marley Dockman (all conference: Red; 2nd Team)",
"returning_awards": "Lydia Lee (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Charlotte Whitney (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention); Genevieve Bueno Perkin (all conference: Red; 2nd Team); Giselle Hausladen (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention); Lola Duffy (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention)",
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "clayton",
"effective_rank": 28,
"final_rank_resolved": 28
}