Westminster
prior #7 · recommended #7 · final #7 legacy 0.84Margin strength
-1.3
vs top-16 avg -1.3
Projected margin
-3.8
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.537
as of 2025-05-30
Offense
62.95
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
61.79
domain stat
Possession
65.04
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #7
- Recommended (model)
- #6
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #7
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #9
- Projected margin rating
- -3.8
- Departure loss %
- 20.7%
- Returning production share
- 56.7%
- Departure loss
- 20.7%
- Seniors departing
- 17
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.84
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2024-25)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allie Branstetter | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 32.1% | 3.4% | 7.6% |
| Brooke Brasfield | — | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 19.7% | 6.7% | 5.6% |
| Lauren Pollack | — | 2 | 1.5% | 0.0% | 21.5% | 0.0% | 4.6% |
| Hannah Ellinwood | — | 17 | 11.0% | 6.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.5% |
| Emily Green | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.0% | 0.8% |
| Izzy Russell | — | 10 | 6.6% | 2.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| Paige Branstetter | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Annie Kats | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Kerckhoff | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lochlan McGowan | — | 3 | 2.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Bradshaw | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophie Nall | — | 4 | 3.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2024-25)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abby Milge | goalie | 14 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 43.0% | 42.2% / 0.8% | 9.3 |
| Allie Branstetter | defense | 15 | 1 | 0.4% | 34.7% | 5.8% | 0.0% / 5.8% | 7.7 |
| Lane Highmark | offense | 15 | 40 | 24.0% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 0.0% / 3.4% | 6.3 |
| Brooke Brasfield | defense | 15 | 2 | 1.0% | 22.4% | 9.2% | 0.0% / 9.2% | 6.2 |
| Lauren Pollack | offense | 13 | 2 | 1.5% | 25.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% / 0.6% | 5.2 |
| Mia Fuller | offense | 14 | 31 | 17.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.0% / 1.4% | 4.4 |
| Maggie Feeney | offense | 15 | 19 | 11.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% / 4.0% | 4.1 |
| Hannah Ellinwood | offense | 13 | 21 | 11.0% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% / 2.2% | 3.1 |
| Emily Green | goalie | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.0% | 12.8% / 0.2% | 2.8 |
| Kamia Cleveland | offense | 13 | 18 | 9.3% | 0.7% | 2.2% | 0.0% / 2.2% | 2.7 |
| Lauren McCall | offense | 12 | 11 | 5.9% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 0.0% / 1.4% | 2.4 |
| Izzy Russell | offense | 12 | 10 | 6.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% / 1.0% | 1.8 |
| Caroline Campbell | offense | 11 | 5 | 2.7% | 0.8% | 3.7% | 0.0% / 3.7% | 1.6 |
| Sophie Nall | offense | 13 | 6 | 3.2% | 0.3% | 1.9% | 0.0% / 1.9% | 1.2 |
| Edde Doehring | defense | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 0.0% / 2.1% | 0.8 |
| Gigi Leighton | offense | 7 | 4 | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% / 0.7% | 0.7 |
| Paige Branstetter | defense | 11 | 1 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 2.7% | 0.0% / 2.7% | 0.6 |
| Lochlan McGowan | offense | 7 | 4 | 1.9% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.5 |
| Kylee Hillin | offense | 2 | 1 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.1 |
| Natalie Bradshaw | defense | 5 | 1 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 0.1 |
| Charlotte Kerckhoff | defense | 4 | 1 | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.1 |
| Megan Gross | offense | 1 | 1 | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.1 |
| Annie Kats | defense | 2 | 1 | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2026)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Word | 8.6 | — |
| Belleville West | 7.4 | — |
| Notre Dame | 7.0 | — |
| John Burroughs | -6.8 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 6.0 | — |
| Eureka | -4.9 | — |
| Parkway Central | -4.7 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 4.6 | — |
| Northwest | 4.2 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 3.9 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 3.7 | — |
| MICDS | -3.7 | — |
| Wentzville | 3.1 | — |
| Francis Howell | 3.0 | — |
| Lindbergh | 3.0 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 2.6 | — |
| O'Fallon | 2.6 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -2.6 | — |
| Parkway West | 2.6 | — |
| St. Dominic | 2.5 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 2.4 | — |
| Parkway South | 2.2 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -1.9 | — |
| Webster Groves | 1.8 | — |
| Kirkwood | 1.6 | — |
| Lafayette | 1.4 | — |
| Marquette | 1.1 | — |
| Oakville | 1.0 | — |
| Visitation Academy | 0.9 | — |
| Clayton | -0.8 | — |
| Edwardsville | -0.8 | — |
| Fox High School | 0.2 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | 0.1 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2026,
"team_name": "Westminster",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 7,
"current_composite_rank": 8,
"recommended_rank": 6,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": -1,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 49.87,
"score_drop": 20.7,
"returning_production_share": 0.567,
"departure_loss_pct": 20.7,
"legacy_prior": 0.843,
"seniors_count": 17,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": null,
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 0,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": null,
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 7,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 1,
"league_order_rank": null,
"actual_finish_rank": 9,
"projection_error": -3.0,
"is_backtest": true,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2025_26_backtest\", \"team_name\": \"Westminster\", \"board_note\": \"Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"\", \"flag_codes\": \"\", \"flag_count\": \"0\", \"score_drop\": \"20.7\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.843\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"17\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"14.3\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"6.8\", \"projection_error\": \"-3\", \"recommended_rank\": \"6\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.306\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"7\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"9\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"20.7\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.16\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"1\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"42.0\", \"projected_composite\": \"49.87\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"-1\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.16\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"8\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.745\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-3.78\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"79.34\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"7\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.794\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.567\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"9\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 9,
"projected_margin_rating": -3.78,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": null,
"projected_turnover_index": 79.34,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "westminster",
"effective_rank": 7,
"final_rank_resolved": 7
}