Westminster
prior #9 · recommended #7 · final #7 legacy 0.84Margin strength
1.4
vs top-16 avg 1.4
Projected margin
0.5
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.547
as of 2026-05-30
Offense
63.20
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
57.99
domain stat
Possession
69.42
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #9
- Recommended (model)
- #7
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #7
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #4
- Projected margin rating
- 0.5
- Departure loss %
- 8.2%
- Returning production share
- 74.5%
- Departure loss
- 8.2%
- Seniors departing
- 9
- Awards points
- +7 returning · −9 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.84
Awards
Departing
Maggie Feeney (all state hm: Honorable Mention); Edde Doehring (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Maggie Feeney (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Kamia Cleveland (all conference: METRO; 2nd Team)
Returning
Lane Highmark (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Mia Fuller (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Aniya Cleveland (all conference: METRO; 2nd Team); Caroline Campbell (all conference: METRO; Honorable Mention); Lauren McCall (all conference: METRO; 2nd Team)
Departing players (2025-26)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maggie Feeney | — | 31 | 18.7% | 14.5% | 9.5% | 2.4% | 6.3% |
| Kamia Cleveland | — | 18 | 11.1% | 6.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.6% |
| Edde Doehring | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Gracie Skoultchi | — | 2 | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Miranda Barnes | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blair Liggett | — | 0 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Savanna Cassidy | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ava Sicard | — | 5 | 3.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Candace DeLaney | — | 6 | 4.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2025-26)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lane Highmark | offense | 14 | 32 | 18.8% | 23.4% | 5.8% | 0.0% / 5.8% | 10.2 |
| Abby Milge | goalie | 13 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 49.0% | 48.8% / 0.2% | 9.9 |
| Lauren McCall | offense | 14 | 19 | 11.2% | 27.6% | 5.0% | 0.0% / 5.0% | 9.2 |
| Maggie Feeney | offense | 12 | 29 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 5.1% | 0.0% / 5.1% | 8.0 |
| Mia Fuller | offense | 14 | 29 | 17.9% | 10.3% | 2.4% | 0.0% / 2.4% | 6.6 |
| Caroline Campbell | offense | 12 | 6 | 3.9% | 11.9% | 5.4% | 0.0% / 5.4% | 4.5 |
| Kamia Cleveland | offense | 13 | 19 | 11.1% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 0.0% / 1.8% | 2.8 |
| Ava Sicard | offense | 11 | 6 | 3.2% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.0% / 1.4% | 1.7 |
| Audrey Pollack | offense | 9 | 1 | 0.5% | 6.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 1.5 |
| Gigi Leighton | offense | 12 | 5 | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% / 1.1% | 1.3 |
| Ava Breckenkamp | goalie | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% / 0.0% | 1.2 |
| Candace DeLaney | offense | 10 | 9 | 4.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.9 |
| Sami Pollack | offense | 11 | 4 | 3.1% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% / 0.7% | 0.8 |
| Aniya Cleveland | defense | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.5% | 0.0% / 3.5% | 0.7 |
| Edde Doehring | defense | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.3% | 0.0% / 3.3% | 0.7 |
| Ellery Malawy | defense | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 0.0% / 2.1% | 0.6 |
| Megan Gross | offense | 11 | 3 | 1.7% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% / 0.7% | 0.5 |
| Gracie Skoultchi | offense | 7 | 2 | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.4 |
| Savanna Cassidy | defense | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 0.0% / 2.0% | 0.4 |
| Miranda Barnes | defense | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.0% / 1.7% | 0.3 |
| Kylee Hillin | offense | 4 | 1 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 0.3 |
| Adley Johnston | offense | 6 | 1 | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% / 0.7% | 0.2 |
| Blair Liggett | offense | 4 | 1 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.2 |
| Laurel Plumb | offense | 1 | 1 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.1 |
Projected matchups (2027)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Word | 10.4 | blowout |
| Nerinx Hall | 9.9 | — |
| Notre Dame | 9.1 | — |
| Clayton | 8.4 | — |
| Parkway North | 8.0 | — |
| Parkway Central | 7.8 | — |
| Belleville West | 7.6 | — |
| Parkway South | 7.6 | — |
| Francis Howell | 7.1 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 6.9 | — |
| Pattonville | 6.9 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 6.8 | — |
| Marquette | 6.5 | — |
| Lindbergh | 6.3 | — |
| Kirkwood | 6.3 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 6.1 | — |
| Webster Groves | 5.8 | — |
| St. Dominic | 5.7 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 5.7 | — |
| Parkway West | 5.5 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 5.2 | — |
| Northwest | 5.2 | — |
| O'Fallon | 4.7 | — |
| Fox High School | 4.2 | — |
| Lafayette | 4.2 | — |
| Oakville | 3.9 | — |
| Eureka | -3.0 | — |
| Wentzville | -2.6 | — |
| Edwardsville | 2.5 | — |
| MICDS | -1.6 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | 1.3 | — |
| Visitation Academy | 1.2 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | 1.0 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | 0.7 | — |
| John Burroughs | 0.4 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2027,
"team_name": "Westminster",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 9,
"current_composite_rank": 9,
"recommended_rank": 7,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": -2,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 57.87,
"score_drop": 8.2,
"returning_production_share": 0.745,
"departure_loss_pct": 8.2,
"legacy_prior": 0.843,
"seniors_count": 9,
"awards_points": 16,
"departing_awards_points": 9,
"returning_awards_points": 7,
"flag_codes": null,
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 0,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": null,
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 7,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": 7,
"actual_finish_rank": null,
"projection_error": null,
"is_backtest": false,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"Westminster\", \"avg_margin\": \"3.14\", \"board_note\": \"Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"7\", \"flag_codes\": \"\", \"flag_count\": \"0\", \"margin_std\": \"7.03\", \"score_drop\": \"8.2\", \"top8_games\": \"6\", \"margin_wins\": \"8\", \"top16_games\": \"11\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.843\", \"margin_games\": \"14\", \"awards_points\": \"16\", \"margin_losses\": \"6\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"9\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"1-5\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"3.3\", \"departing_awards\": \"Maggie Feeney (all state hm: Honorable Mention); Edde Doehring (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Maggie Feeney (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Kamia Cleveland (all conference: METRO; 2nd Team)\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"15.7\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"7\", \"returning_awards\": \"Lane Highmark (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Mia Fuller (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Aniya Cleveland (all conference: METRO; 2nd Team); Caroline Campbell (all conference: METRO; Honorable Mention); Lauren McCall (all conference: METRO; 2nd Team)\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.304\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"-2\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"2.93\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"7\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"9\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"-3.5\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"8.2\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.815\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"1.45\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"6.89\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"5.9\", \"projected_composite\": \"57.87\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"-2\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.815\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"9\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.667\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"9\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"0.47\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"7\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"91.76\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"7\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.692\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.745\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"4\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 4,
"projected_margin_rating": 0.47,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": 1.45,
"projected_turnover_index": 91.76,
"departing_awards": "Maggie Feeney (all state hm: Honorable Mention); Edde Doehring (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Maggie Feeney (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Kamia Cleveland (all conference: METRO; 2nd Team)",
"returning_awards": "Lane Highmark (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Mia Fuller (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Aniya Cleveland (all conference: METRO; 2nd Team); Caroline Campbell (all conference: METRO; Honorable Mention); Lauren McCall (all conference: METRO; 2nd Team)",
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "westminster",
"effective_rank": 7,
"final_rank_resolved": 7
}