Wentzville
prior #15 · recommended #15 · final #15 legacy 0.81Margin strength
-5.4
vs top-16 avg -5.4
Projected margin
-9.0
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.497
as of 2025-05-30
Offense
51.89
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
48.39
domain stat
Possession
58.83
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #15
- Recommended (model)
- #15
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #15
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #26
- Projected margin rating
- -9.0
- Departure loss %
- 29.5%
- Returning production share
- 46.6%
- Departure loss
- 29.5%
- Seniors departing
- 8
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.81
Info flags:
roster_margin_split
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2024-25)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abigail Hirsch | — | 20 | 19.2% | 15.4% | 32.9% | 9.3% | 13.8% |
| Holly Altheimer | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 49.9% | 11.9% |
| Luci Isgrigg | — | 8 | 8.6% | 4.7% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% |
| Megan Tilley | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2024-25)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abigail Hirsch | utility | 11 | 18 | 19.2% | 36.5% | 11.7% | 0.0% / 11.7% | 11.7 |
| Madison Jimenez | utility | 10 | 23 | 24.9% | 28.9% | 3.1% | 0.0% / 3.1% | 9.9 |
| Holly Altheimer | utility | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 52.3% | 52.3% / 0.0% | 8.9 |
| Riley Flynn | utility | 9 | 20 | 22.5% | 17.8% | 4.2% | 0.0% / 4.2% | 7.8 |
| Luci Isgrigg | utility | 9 | 10 | 8.6% | 12.0% | 5.3% | 0.0% / 5.3% | 4.5 |
| Sophia Arnone | utility | 10 | 13 | 12.3% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.0% / 1.5% | 2.8 |
| Sophia Tobey | utility | 8 | 8 | 8.6% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 0.0% / 1.6% | 2.0 |
| Shannon Oleary | utility | 9 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 4.8% | 0.0% / 4.8% | 0.9 |
| Grace Gumper | utility | 5 | 3 | 1.8% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% / 0.8% | 0.8 |
| Emma Hildenbrand | utility | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.8% | 0.0% / 3.8% | 0.6 |
| Kayleigh Schumer | utility | 6 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 2.5% | 0.0% / 2.5% | 0.5 |
| Kelsi Branson | utility | 4 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 0.0% / 2.1% | 0.5 |
| Rebecca Bell | utility | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.6% / 0.0% | 0.5 |
| Hayden Eppler | utility | 3 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% / 0.8% | 0.2 |
| Chloe Bostic | utility | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% / 1.0% | 0.2 |
| Nikhita Nevil | utility | 2 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.1 |
| Anna Wright | utility | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% / 0.7% | 0.1 |
| Gracyn Keller | utility | 1 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.1 |
| Megan Tilley | utility | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 0.1 |
| Danika Clark | utility | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2026)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| John Burroughs | -9.9 | — |
| Eureka | -8.0 | — |
| Parkway Central | -7.8 | — |
| MICDS | -6.8 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -5.7 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 5.5 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -5.0 | — |
| Belleville West | 4.3 | — |
| Notre Dame | 3.9 | — |
| Edwardsville | -3.9 | — |
| Clayton | -3.9 | — |
| Westminster | -3.1 | — |
| Fox High School | -3.0 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -3.0 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 2.9 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -2.2 | — |
| Oakville | -2.1 | — |
| Marquette | -2.0 | — |
| Lafayette | -1.8 | — |
| Kirkwood | -1.6 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 1.5 | — |
| Webster Groves | -1.3 | — |
| Northwest | 1.1 | — |
| Parkway South | -0.9 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 0.8 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | -0.7 | — |
| St. Dominic | -0.6 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | -0.6 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 0.6 | — |
| O'Fallon | -0.5 | — |
| Parkway West | -0.5 | — |
| Francis Howell | -0.1 | — |
| Lindbergh | -0.1 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2026,
"team_name": "Wentzville",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 15,
"current_composite_rank": 24,
"recommended_rank": 15,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 0,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 36.7,
"score_drop": 29.5,
"returning_production_share": 0.466,
"departure_loss_pct": 29.5,
"legacy_prior": 0.807,
"seniors_count": 8,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": "roster_margin_split",
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": "roster_margin_split",
"flag_count": 1,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": "medium",
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Recommend rank 15 (prior finish 15). Flagged for board review: roster_margin_split. Suggested follow-up: margin_vs_roster_review.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 15,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": null,
"actual_finish_rank": 15,
"projection_error": 0.0,
"is_backtest": true,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2025_26_backtest\", \"team_name\": \"Wentzville\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 15 (prior finish 15). Flagged for board review: roster_margin_split. Suggested follow-up: margin_vs_roster_review.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"\", \"flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split\", \"flag_count\": \"1\", \"score_drop\": \"29.5\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.807\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"8\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split\", \"review_priority\": \"medium\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"45.0\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"14.9\", \"projection_error\": \"0\", \"recommended_rank\": \"15\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.287\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"15\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"15\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"29.5\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.531\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"29.8\", \"projected_composite\": \"36.7\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"composite_split_note\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.531\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"24\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.793\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-8.98\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"70.45\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"15\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.745\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.466\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"26\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 26,
"projected_margin_rating": -8.98,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": null,
"projected_turnover_index": 70.45,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "wentzville",
"effective_rank": 15,
"final_rank_resolved": 15
}