Webster Groves
prior #20 · recommended #23 · final #23 legacy 0.45Margin strength
-2.0
vs top-16 avg -2.0
Projected margin
-6.8
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.524
as of 2025-05-30
Offense
58.75
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
75.80
domain stat
Possession
54.58
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #20
- Recommended (model)
- #23
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #23
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #17
- Projected margin rating
- -6.8
- Departure loss %
- 40.0%
- Returning production share
- 30.9%
- Departure loss
- 40.0%
- Seniors departing
- 10
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.45
Action-flagged
- · low_returning_heavy_loss
Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement
Secondary regression: returning_feeder_core
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2024-25)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lilah Herrell | — | 25 | 24.9% | 20.8% | 30.6% | 3.4% | 17.0% |
| Dayton Stahl | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 25.7% | 8.0% |
| Erin Wagner | — | 25 | 25.0% | 21.0% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 7.2% |
| Gracelynn McGrew | — | 5 | 5.7% | 1.6% | 10.7% | 0.0% | 3.8% |
| Kaiden Hughes | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.4% | 3.2% |
| Maeve Sauter | — | 6 | 6.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.8% |
| Ali Schulz | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anna Stevens | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emilie Smith | — | 0 | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kara Pierce | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2024-25)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lilah Herrell | offense | 13 | 32 | 24.9% | 34.6% | 6.0% | 0.0% / 6.0% | 12.1 |
| Elliot Blew | offense | 12 | 23 | 16.3% | 30.7% | 6.1% | 0.0% / 6.1% | 9.8 |
| Dayton Stahl | goalie | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 34.7% | 33.0% / 1.7% | 9.2 |
| Erin Wagner | offense | 13 | 35 | 25.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 0.0% / 4.5% | 7.0 |
| Kaiden Hughes | goalie | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 19.4% | 19.4% / 0.0% | 5.1 |
| Gracelynn McGrew | offense | 13 | 9 | 5.7% | 14.6% | 2.7% | 0.0% / 2.7% | 4.2 |
| Maeve Sauter | offense | 13 | 10 | 6.2% | 1.1% | 3.2% | 0.0% / 3.2% | 2.3 |
| Leilie Roash | offense | 12 | 10 | 6.8% | 0.0% | 2.3% | 0.0% / 2.3% | 2.0 |
| Ruby Toro | offense | 13 | 12 | 7.3% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% / 1.3% | 1.8 |
| Elliotte Stahl | offense | 12 | 7 | 4.7% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 0.0% / 2.2% | 1.8 |
| Opal Hayes | offense | 12 | 2 | 1.2% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.0% / 2.5% | 1.4 |
| Emilie Smith | offense | 10 | 2 | 0.7% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.0% / 1.3% | 0.9 |
| Kate Vaniger | offense | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 4.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 0.9 |
| Sam Enlund | defense | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.1% | 0.0% / 3.1% | 0.8 |
| Avery Enlund | goalie | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.6% / 0.0% | 0.7 |
| Kara Pierce | defense | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.5% | 0.0% / 2.5% | 0.7 |
| Ali Schulz | defense | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% / 1.4% | 0.4 |
| Caroline Likos | offense | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% / 0.6% | 0.3 |
| Emily Brendel | defense | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% / 1.0% | 0.3 |
| Jenna Gerlach | offense | 4 | 1 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.2 |
| Anna Stevens | defense | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% / 0.8% | 0.2 |
| Maddie Hinkle | offense | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.2 |
| Rylee McGrew | offense | 2 | 1 | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.1 |
| Emma Zarky | defense | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 0.1 |
| Maria Ward | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.1 |
| Shae Hodge | defense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2026)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| John Burroughs | -8.6 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 6.8 | — |
| Eureka | -6.7 | — |
| Parkway Central | -6.5 | — |
| Belleville West | 5.6 | — |
| MICDS | -5.5 | — |
| Notre Dame | 5.2 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -4.4 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 4.2 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -3.7 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 2.8 | — |
| Edwardsville | -2.6 | — |
| Clayton | -2.6 | — |
| Northwest | 2.4 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 2.1 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 1.9 | — |
| Westminster | -1.8 | — |
| Fox High School | -1.7 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -1.7 | — |
| Wentzville | 1.3 | — |
| Lindbergh | 1.2 | — |
| Francis Howell | 1.2 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -0.9 | — |
| Oakville | -0.8 | — |
| Parkway West | 0.8 | — |
| O'Fallon | 0.8 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 0.7 | — |
| Marquette | -0.7 | — |
| St. Dominic | 0.7 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 0.6 | — |
| Parkway South | 0.4 | — |
| Lafayette | -0.4 | — |
| Kirkwood | -0.2 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2026,
"team_name": "Webster Groves",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 20,
"current_composite_rank": 13,
"recommended_rank": 23,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 3,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 37.15,
"score_drop": 40.0,
"returning_production_share": 0.309,
"departure_loss_pct": 40.0,
"legacy_prior": 0.448,
"seniors_count": 10,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": "low_returning_heavy_loss",
"action_flag_codes": "low_returning_heavy_loss",
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 1,
"action_flag_count": 1,
"needs_board_review": "yes",
"review_priority": "medium",
"regression_tracks": "underclass_surge_or_replacement",
"board_note": "Recommend rank 23 (prior finish 20). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement.",
"secondary_slot_delta": -1,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": "returning_feeder_core",
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 23,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": null,
"actual_finish_rank": 20,
"projection_error": 3.0,
"is_backtest": true,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2025_26_backtest\", \"team_name\": \"Webster Groves\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 23 (prior finish 20). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.189\", \"final_rank\": \"\", \"flag_codes\": \"low_returning_heavy_loss\", \"flag_count\": \"1\", \"score_drop\": \"40.0\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.448\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"10\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"medium\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"45.0\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"38.0\", \"projection_error\": \"3\", \"recommended_rank\": \"23\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.257\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"low_returning_heavy_loss\", \"action_flag_count\": \"1\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"3\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"20\", \"regression_tracks\": \"underclass_surge_or_replacement\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"20\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"40.0\", \"needs_board_review\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.438\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"37.1\", \"projected_composite\": \"37.15\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"3\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.438\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"-1\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"True\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"13\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.405\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-6.8\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"feeder_pair_offense;late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"59.96\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"23\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.382\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.309\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"returning_feeder_core\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"17\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 17,
"projected_margin_rating": -6.8,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": null,
"projected_turnover_index": 59.96,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "webster-groves",
"effective_rank": 23,
"final_rank_resolved": 23
}