Visitation Academy
prior #10 · recommended #8 · final #8 legacy 0.55Margin strength
-5.3
vs top-16 avg -5.3
Projected margin
-5.3
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.538
as of 2025-05-30
Offense
55.78
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
55.56
domain stat
Possession
53.06
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #10
- Recommended (model)
- #8
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #8
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #12
- Projected margin rating
- -5.3
- Departure loss %
- 0.6%
- Returning production share
- 97.1%
- Departure loss
- 0.6%
- Seniors departing
- 4
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.55
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2024-25)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Williams | — | 0 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Emily Ward | — | 7 | 4.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Mooney | — | 1 | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Izzy Kowalczyk | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2024-25)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molly Fesler | offense | 17 | 54 | 36.1% | 32.7% | 10.5% | 0.0% / 10.5% | 14.0 |
| Evie Harris | goalie | 17 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 54.1% | 54.1% / 0.0% | 10.5 |
| Margot Newbold | offense | 17 | 30 | 18.9% | 25.8% | 7.4% | 0.0% / 7.4% | 9.0 |
| Caroline Glarner | offense | 15 | 19 | 11.7% | 17.1% | 4.9% | 0.0% / 4.9% | 5.8 |
| Caelan Vulin | offense | 13 | 20 | 12.5% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.0% / 1.4% | 3.0 |
| Ellie Glarner | offense | 12 | 13 | 7.5% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.0% / 1.9% | 2.3 |
| Maria Travers | offense | 9 | 4 | 2.4% | 9.6% | 1.6% | 0.0% / 1.6% | 2.2 |
| Clare Gunn | offense | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 0.0% / 3.9% | 1.5 |
| Emily Ward | offense | 9 | 7 | 4.7% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% / 1.0% | 1.1 |
| Anna Friedrich | offense | 13 | 3 | 1.1% | 0.8% | 3.5% | 0.0% / 3.5% | 1.0 |
| Emma Williams | offense | 11 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 4.1% | 0.0% / 4.1% | 0.9 |
| Brigid Feldman | offense | 10 | 4 | 2.8% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.0% / 1.2% | 0.8 |
| Kendall Ann McGowan | defense | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.0% / 1.7% | 0.4 |
| Winnie Ferrick | offense | 5 | 3 | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% / 0.8% | 0.4 |
| Georgia Sanders | offense | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 0.3 |
| Elizabeth Mooney | offense | 3 | 2 | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% / 0.7% | 0.3 |
| Madeline Espana | goalie | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% / 0.0% | 0.2 |
| Izzy Kowalczyk | defense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.1 |
| Ella Silverman | offense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.1 |
| Bridget McDonagh | offense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Eileen McKeown | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2026)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Word | 7.7 | — |
| John Burroughs | -7.7 | — |
| Belleville West | 6.5 | — |
| Notre Dame | 6.1 | — |
| Eureka | -5.8 | — |
| Parkway Central | -5.7 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 5.1 | — |
| MICDS | -4.6 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 3.6 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -3.6 | — |
| Northwest | 3.3 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 3.0 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -2.8 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 2.8 | — |
| Wentzville | 2.2 | — |
| Francis Howell | 2.1 | — |
| Lindbergh | 2.0 | — |
| Parkway West | 1.7 | — |
| Clayton | -1.7 | — |
| Edwardsville | -1.7 | — |
| O'Fallon | 1.7 | — |
| St. Dominic | 1.6 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 1.6 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 1.4 | — |
| Parkway South | 1.3 | — |
| Westminster | -0.9 | — |
| Webster Groves | 0.9 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -0.8 | — |
| Fox High School | -0.8 | — |
| Kirkwood | 0.6 | — |
| Lafayette | 0.4 | — |
| Marquette | 0.2 | — |
| Oakville | 0.1 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2026,
"team_name": "Visitation Academy",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 10,
"current_composite_rank": 22,
"recommended_rank": 8,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": -2,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 53.76,
"score_drop": 0.6,
"returning_production_share": 0.971,
"departure_loss_pct": 0.6,
"legacy_prior": 0.546,
"seniors_count": 4,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": null,
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 0,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": null,
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 8,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": null,
"actual_finish_rank": 7,
"projection_error": 1.0,
"is_backtest": true,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2025_26_backtest\", \"team_name\": \"Visitation Academy\", \"board_note\": \"Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"\", \"flag_codes\": \"\", \"flag_count\": \"0\", \"score_drop\": \"0.6\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.546\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"4\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"1.4\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"0.4\", \"projection_error\": \"1\", \"recommended_rank\": \"8\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.244\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"-2\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"10\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"7\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"0.6\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.987\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"0.0\", \"projected_composite\": \"53.76\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"-2\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.987\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"22\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"1.0\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-5.34\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"99.44\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"8\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.938\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.971\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"12\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 12,
"projected_margin_rating": -5.34,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": null,
"projected_turnover_index": 99.44,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "visitation-academy",
"effective_rank": 8,
"final_rank_resolved": 8
}