Villa Duchesne
prior #21 · recommended #18 · final #18 legacy 1.00Margin strength
-7.7
vs top-16 avg -7.7
Projected margin
-7.8
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.486
as of 2025-05-30
Offense
64.29
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
30.16
domain stat
Possession
43.32
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #21
- Recommended (model)
- #19
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #18
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #19
- Projected margin rating
- -7.8
- Departure loss %
- 0.3%
- Returning production share
- 71.5%
- Departure loss
- 0.3%
- Seniors departing
- 5
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 1.00
Action-flagged
- · backtest_large_error
Suggested follow-up: post_hoc_regression_candidate
Secondary regression: backtest_error_shrink
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2024-25)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Megan Niemeyer | — | 0 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Keely Eigelberger | — | 2 | 2.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Victoria Sansone | — | 0 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ellen Schweppe | — | 3 | 3.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Penny Brunner | — | 0 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2024-25)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maeve O'Neil | utility | 10 | 43 | 35.7% | 49.2% | 19.6% | 0.0% / 19.6% | 16.2 |
| Katie Todorovich | utility | 7 | 32 | 26.4% | 9.5% | 5.1% | 0.0% / 5.1% | 7.7 |
| Ellie Wallace | utility | 10 | 23 | 20.3% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 0.0% / 2.4% | 5.3 |
| Vivian Rea | utility | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 49.1% | 49.1% / 0.0% | 5.2 |
| Elizabeth Meyer | utility | 7 | 5 | 4.2% | 28.7% | 2.4% | 0.0% / 2.4% | 4.8 |
| Mary-Claire Schwaneke | utility | 5 | 1 | 0.8% | 6.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 1.0 |
| Keely Eigelberger | utility | 5 | 4 | 2.7% | 0.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% / 3.0% | 0.9 |
| Ellen Schweppe | utility | 5 | 4 | 3.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.8 |
| Hope Lowery | utility | 5 | 4 | 3.2% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.8 |
| Lucy Hicks | utility | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% / 0.0% | 0.6 |
| Megan Niemeyer | utility | 6 | 1 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 4.3% | 0.0% / 4.3% | 0.6 |
| Lauren Hagan | utility | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 0.0% / 3.0% | 0.5 |
| Victoria Sansone | utility | 3 | 1 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 2.6% | 0.0% / 2.6% | 0.4 |
| Lauren LaDriere | utility | 3 | 1 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% / 1.2% | 0.2 |
| Courtney Potter | utility | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 0.2 |
| Eva Wallace | utility | 3 | 1 | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.2 |
| Penny Brunner | utility | 4 | 1 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.1 |
| Halliden Brown | utility | 1 | 1 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.1 |
| Abby Fuhr | utility | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2026)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| John Burroughs | -9.2 | — |
| Eureka | -7.3 | — |
| Parkway Central | -7.1 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 6.3 | — |
| MICDS | -6.1 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -5.0 | — |
| Belleville West | 5.0 | — |
| Notre Dame | 4.7 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -4.2 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 3.7 | — |
| Clayton | -3.2 | — |
| Edwardsville | -3.2 | — |
| Westminster | -2.4 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -2.2 | — |
| Fox High School | -2.2 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 2.2 | — |
| Northwest | 1.8 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 1.5 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -1.4 | — |
| Oakville | -1.4 | — |
| Marquette | -1.3 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 1.3 | — |
| Lafayette | -1.0 | — |
| Kirkwood | -0.8 | — |
| Wentzville | 0.7 | — |
| Francis Howell | 0.7 | — |
| Lindbergh | 0.6 | — |
| Webster Groves | -0.6 | — |
| O'Fallon | 0.2 | — |
| Parkway West | 0.2 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 0.2 | — |
| St. Dominic | 0.2 | — |
| Parkway South | -0.1 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2026,
"team_name": "Villa Duchesne",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 21,
"current_composite_rank": 28,
"recommended_rank": 19,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": -2,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 45.19,
"score_drop": 0.3,
"returning_production_share": 0.715,
"departure_loss_pct": 0.3,
"legacy_prior": 1.0,
"seniors_count": 5,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": "backtest_large_error",
"action_flag_codes": "backtest_large_error",
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 1,
"action_flag_count": 1,
"needs_board_review": "yes",
"review_priority": "high",
"regression_tracks": "post_hoc_regression_candidate",
"board_note": "Recommend rank 19 (prior finish 21). Flagged for board review: backtest_large_error. Suggested follow-up: post_hoc_regression_candidate.",
"secondary_slot_delta": -1,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": "backtest_error_shrink",
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 18,
"adjusted_rank_delta": -1,
"league_order_rank": null,
"actual_finish_rank": 13,
"projection_error": 6.0,
"is_backtest": true,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2025_26_backtest\", \"team_name\": \"Villa Duchesne\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 19 (prior finish 21). Flagged for board review: backtest_large_error. Suggested follow-up: post_hoc_regression_candidate.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"\", \"flag_codes\": \"backtest_large_error\", \"flag_count\": \"1\", \"score_drop\": \"0.3\", \"legacy_prior\": \"1.0\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"5\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"high\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"2.5\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"0.0\", \"projection_error\": \"6\", \"recommended_rank\": \"19\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.377\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"backtest_large_error\", \"action_flag_count\": \"1\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"-3\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"21\", \"regression_tracks\": \"post_hoc_regression_candidate\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"13\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"0.3\", \"needs_board_review\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"1.0\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"-1\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"0.0\", \"projected_composite\": \"45.19\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"-2\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"1.0\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"-1\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"28\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.674\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-7.75\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"99.71\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"18\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.932\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.715\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"backtest_error_shrink\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"19\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 19,
"projected_margin_rating": -7.75,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": null,
"projected_turnover_index": 99.71,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "villa-duchesne",
"effective_rank": 18,
"final_rank_resolved": 18
}