Villa Duchesne
prior #13 · recommended #13 · final #13 legacy 1.00Margin strength
-8.7
vs top-16 avg -8.7
Projected margin
-11.1
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.546
as of 2026-05-30
Offense
69.62
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
54.95
domain stat
Possession
76.81
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #13
- Recommended (model)
- #13
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #13
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #27
- Projected margin rating
- -11.1
- Departure loss %
- 20.0%
- Returning production share
- 69.5%
- Departure loss
- 20.0%
- Seniors departing
- 1
- Awards points
- +17 returning · −10 departing
- Legacy prior
- 1.00
Action-flagged
- · award_talent_loss
Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review
Info flags:
roster_margin_split
Secondary regression: returning_draw_control
Awards
Departing
Katie Todorovich (all state first: 1st Team); Katie Todorovich (all conference: GISL; 1st Team)
Returning
Maeve O'Neil (all state first: 1st Team); Maeve O'Neil (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Elizabeth Meyer (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Ellie Wallace (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Emme Rohlfing (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Eva Wallace (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Kenzie Studer (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Margot Todorovich (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Sarah Catherin Finney (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention)
Departing players (2025-26)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katie Todorovich | — | 50 | 38.8% | 34.6% | 39.6% | 2.9% | 20.0% |
Player impact (2025-26)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katie Todorovich | offense | 12 | 61 | 38.8% | 43.6% | 5.5% | 0.0% / 5.5% | 20.6 |
| Maeve O'Neil | offense | 12 | 59 | 39.3% | 27.5% | 9.2% | 0.0% / 9.2% | 17.7 |
| Kenzie Studer | goalie | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 38.6% | 36.5% / 2.0% | 7.4 |
| Ellie Wallace | offense | 8 | 15 | 7.8% | 10.2% | 2.4% | 0.0% / 2.4% | 4.7 |
| Elizabeth Meyer | offense | 12 | 5 | 2.7% | 13.5% | 3.4% | 0.0% / 3.4% | 4.4 |
| Lucy Hicks | goalie | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 19.7% | 18.5% / 1.2% | 3.8 |
| Emme Rohlfing | offense | 11 | 12 | 6.0% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 0.0% / 3.2% | 3.0 |
| Sarah Catherin Finney | offense | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.4% | 0.0% / 5.4% | 1.0 |
| Eva Wallace | offense | 10 | 4 | 2.2% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 0.7 |
| Klasey Price | offense | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 0.0% / 1.8% | 0.7 |
| Mary Catherine Montovani | offense | 5 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 2.3% | 0.0% / 2.3% | 0.5 |
| Margot Todorovich | offense | 9 | 4 | 1.9% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.5 |
| Paige Gardner | defense | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 0.0% / 1.9% | 0.4 |
| Jane Azar | offense | 6 | 2 | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% / 0.7% | 0.3 |
| Claire Council | defense | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.0% / 1.7% | 0.3 |
| Gracie Brennan | defense | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% / 1.4% | 0.3 |
| Emersyn Gardner | defense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% / 0.7% | 0.1 |
| Liesel Schenk | defense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.1 |
| Lily Redd | offense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.1 |
| Elizabeth Murphy | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2027)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Eureka | -9.9 | — |
| Wentzville | -9.5 | — |
| MICDS | -8.6 | — |
| Westminster | -6.9 | — |
| John Burroughs | -6.5 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -6.2 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -5.9 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -5.7 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -5.6 | — |
| Edwardsville | -4.4 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 3.4 | — |
| Oakville | -3.1 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 3.0 | — |
| Lafayette | -2.8 | — |
| Fox High School | -2.7 | — |
| Notre Dame | 2.2 | — |
| O'Fallon | -2.2 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | -1.7 | — |
| Northwest | -1.7 | — |
| Clayton | 1.4 | — |
| Parkway West | -1.4 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | -1.2 | — |
| St. Dominic | -1.2 | — |
| Parkway North | 1.1 | — |
| Webster Groves | -1.1 | — |
| Parkway Central | 0.9 | — |
| Francis Howell North | -0.8 | — |
| Parkway South | 0.7 | — |
| Belleville West | 0.7 | — |
| Kirkwood | -0.6 | — |
| Lindbergh | -0.6 | — |
| Marquette | -0.4 | — |
| Francis Howell | 0.1 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | -0.1 | — |
| Pattonville | -0.1 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2027,
"team_name": "Villa Duchesne",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 13,
"current_composite_rank": 26,
"recommended_rank": 13,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 0,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 52.59,
"score_drop": 20.0,
"returning_production_share": 0.695,
"departure_loss_pct": 20.0,
"legacy_prior": 1.0,
"seniors_count": 1,
"awards_points": 27,
"departing_awards_points": 10,
"returning_awards_points": 17,
"flag_codes": "roster_margin_split;award_talent_loss",
"action_flag_codes": "award_talent_loss",
"info_flag_codes": "roster_margin_split",
"flag_count": 2,
"action_flag_count": 1,
"needs_board_review": "yes",
"review_priority": "medium",
"regression_tracks": "award_talent_review",
"board_note": "Recommend rank 13 (prior finish 13). Flagged for board review: award_talent_loss. Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review.",
"secondary_slot_delta": -1,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": "returning_draw_control",
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 13,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": 13,
"actual_finish_rank": null,
"projection_error": null,
"is_backtest": false,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"Villa Duchesne\", \"avg_margin\": \"0.58\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 13 (prior finish 13). Flagged for board review: award_talent_loss. Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"13\", \"flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split;award_talent_loss\", \"flag_count\": \"2\", \"margin_std\": \"10.77\", \"score_drop\": \"20.0\", \"top8_games\": \"4\", \"margin_wins\": \"7\", \"top16_games\": \"6\", \"legacy_prior\": \"1.0\", \"margin_games\": \"12\", \"awards_points\": \"27\", \"margin_losses\": \"5\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"1\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"0-4\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split\", \"review_priority\": \"medium\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"2.9\", \"departing_awards\": \"Katie Todorovich (all state first: 1st Team); Katie Todorovich (all conference: GISL; 1st Team)\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"28.4\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"13\", \"returning_awards\": \"Maeve O'Neil (all state first: 1st Team); Maeve O'Neil (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Elizabeth Meyer (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Ellie Wallace (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Emme Rohlfing (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Eva Wallace (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Kenzie Studer (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Margot Todorovich (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Sarah Catherin Finney (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention)\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.423\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"award_talent_loss\", \"action_flag_count\": \"1\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"0.58\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"13\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"13\", \"regression_tracks\": \"award_talent_review\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"-12.0\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"20.0\", \"needs_board_review\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.566\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"-8.67\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"5.89\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"28.6\", \"projected_composite\": \"52.59\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"composite_split_note\": \"also\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.566\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"-1\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"26\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.928\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"10\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-11.07\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"17\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"79.95\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"13\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.607\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.695\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"returning_draw_control\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"27\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 27,
"projected_margin_rating": -11.07,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": -8.67,
"projected_turnover_index": 79.95,
"departing_awards": "Katie Todorovich (all state first: 1st Team); Katie Todorovich (all conference: GISL; 1st Team)",
"returning_awards": "Maeve O'Neil (all state first: 1st Team); Maeve O'Neil (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Elizabeth Meyer (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Ellie Wallace (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Emme Rohlfing (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Eva Wallace (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Kenzie Studer (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Margot Todorovich (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Sarah Catherin Finney (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention)",
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "villa-duchesne",
"effective_rank": 13,
"final_rank_resolved": 13
}