Ursuline Academy
prior #19 · recommended #20 · final #20 legacy 1.00Margin strength
-6.9
vs top-16 avg -6.9
Projected margin
-11.4
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.497
as of 2025-05-30
Offense
51.98
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
61.41
domain stat
Possession
60.57
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #19
- Recommended (model)
- #20
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #20
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #30
- Projected margin rating
- -11.4
- Departure loss %
- 37.9%
- Returning production share
- 26.8%
- Departure loss
- 37.9%
- Seniors departing
- 6
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 1.00
Action-flagged
- · low_returning_heavy_loss
Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement
Info flags:
roster_margin_split
Secondary regression: late_underclass_surge
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2024-25)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Wuennenberg | — | 31 | 25.7% | 21.6% | 38.5% | 4.5% | 15.3% |
| Ashley Strauss | — | 19 | 15.9% | 11.8% | 29.1% | 3.4% | 10.5% |
| Isabella Hardt | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 25.8% | 6.1% |
| Claire Fagan | — | 31 | 25.9% | 21.8% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 5.3% |
| Kelsey Flanagan | — | 6 | 5.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| Norah Overberg | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
Player impact (2024-25)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Wuennenberg | offense | 14 | 33 | 25.7% | 42.5% | 7.2% | 0.0% / 7.2% | 13.6 |
| Ashley Strauss | offense | 16 | 22 | 15.9% | 33.1% | 6.1% | 0.0% / 6.1% | 10.0 |
| Isabella Hardt | goalie | 16 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 34.8% | 34.8% / 0.0% | 7.5 |
| Gracie Krejci | offense | 15 | 20 | 15.0% | 15.2% | 2.5% | 0.0% / 2.5% | 5.9 |
| Claire Fagan | offense | 16 | 34 | 25.9% | 1.0% | 3.2% | 0.0% / 3.2% | 5.6 |
| Naomi Briggs | goalie | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 17.6% | 17.6% / 0.0% | 3.8 |
| Hayden Yorty | offense | 13 | 10 | 6.3% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 0.0% / 1.6% | 1.5 |
| Clare Verslues | offense | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.6% | 0.0% / 6.6% | 1.4 |
| Kelsey Flanagan | offense | 12 | 7 | 5.3% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 1.4 |
| Katie McCaffrey | defense | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.5% | 4.0% | 0.0% / 4.0% | 1.1 |
| Morgan Hollenberg | offense | 11 | 1 | 0.4% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.0% / 2.3% | 1.1 |
| Grace Ledwon | offense | 11 | 1 | 0.3% | 0.0% | 4.6% | 2.6% / 2.1% | 1.1 |
| Norah Overberg | defense | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.7% | 0.0% / 3.7% | 0.8 |
| Celine Auberry | offense | 9 | 6 | 3.5% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 0.8 |
| Mason Hembree | offense | 10 | 1 | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.0% / 1.6% | 0.6 |
| Claire Pruitt | defense | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 0.0% / 1.8% | 0.4 |
| Kendall Flanagan | defense | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% / 0.7% | 0.3 |
| Eva Jones | offense | 3 | 2 | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.1 |
| Peyton Prior | defense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.1 |
| Caylee Clancy | offense | 1 | 1 | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.1 |
| Molly Brandt | defense | 2 | 1 | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Trudy Henkaus | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2026)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| John Burroughs | -11.4 | blowout |
| Eureka | -9.5 | — |
| Parkway Central | -9.3 | — |
| MICDS | -8.3 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -7.2 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -6.4 | — |
| Clayton | -5.4 | — |
| Edwardsville | -5.4 | — |
| Westminster | -4.6 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -4.4 | — |
| Fox High School | -4.4 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 4.1 | — |
| Oakville | -3.6 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -3.6 | — |
| Marquette | -3.5 | — |
| Lafayette | -3.2 | — |
| Kirkwood | -3.0 | — |
| Webster Groves | -2.8 | — |
| Belleville West | 2.8 | — |
| Notre Dame | 2.5 | — |
| Parkway South | -2.3 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | -2.2 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | -2.0 | — |
| O'Fallon | -2.0 | — |
| Parkway West | -2.0 | — |
| St. Dominic | -2.0 | — |
| Lindbergh | -1.6 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 1.5 | — |
| Wentzville | -1.5 | — |
| Francis Howell | -1.5 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | -0.9 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | -0.6 | — |
| Northwest | -0.4 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2026,
"team_name": "Ursuline Academy",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 19,
"current_composite_rank": 26,
"recommended_rank": 20,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 1,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 35.25,
"score_drop": 37.9,
"returning_production_share": 0.268,
"departure_loss_pct": 37.9,
"legacy_prior": 1.0,
"seniors_count": 6,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": "roster_margin_split;low_returning_heavy_loss",
"action_flag_codes": "low_returning_heavy_loss",
"info_flag_codes": "roster_margin_split",
"flag_count": 2,
"action_flag_count": 1,
"needs_board_review": "yes",
"review_priority": "medium",
"regression_tracks": "underclass_surge_or_replacement",
"board_note": "Recommend rank 20 (prior finish 19). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement.",
"secondary_slot_delta": -1,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": "late_underclass_surge",
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 20,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": null,
"actual_finish_rank": 19,
"projection_error": 1.0,
"is_backtest": true,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2025_26_backtest\", \"team_name\": \"Ursuline Academy\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 20 (prior finish 19). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.643\", \"final_rank\": \"\", \"flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split;low_returning_heavy_loss\", \"flag_count\": \"2\", \"score_drop\": \"37.9\", \"legacy_prior\": \"1.0\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"6\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split\", \"review_priority\": \"medium\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"35.5\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"38.0\", \"projection_error\": \"1\", \"recommended_rank\": \"20\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.201\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"low_returning_heavy_loss\", \"action_flag_count\": \"1\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"1\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"19\", \"regression_tracks\": \"underclass_surge_or_replacement\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"19\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"37.9\", \"needs_board_review\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.23\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"42.0\", \"projected_composite\": \"35.25\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"1\", \"composite_split_note\": \"also\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.23\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"-1\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"True\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"26\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.179\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-11.41\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"feeder_pair_offense;late_underclass_surge_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"62.07\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"20\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.403\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.268\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"late_underclass_surge\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"30\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 30,
"projected_margin_rating": -11.41,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": null,
"projected_turnover_index": 62.07,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "ursuline-academy",
"effective_rank": 20,
"final_rank_resolved": 20
}