Ursuline Academy
prior #19 · recommended #18 · final #18 legacy 1.00Margin strength
-8.3
vs top-16 avg -8.3
Projected margin
-10.8
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.504
as of 2026-05-30
Offense
53.09
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
65.67
domain stat
Possession
50.93
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #19
- Recommended (model)
- #18
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #18
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #25
- Projected margin rating
- -10.8
- Departure loss %
- 20.8%
- Returning production share
- 62.3%
- Departure loss
- 20.8%
- Seniors departing
- 7
- Awards points
- +4 returning · −5 departing
- Legacy prior
- 1.00
Awards
Departing
Gracie Krejci (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Clare Verslues (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Grace Ledwon (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Hayden Yorty (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team)
Returning
Morgan Hollenberg (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Celine Auberry (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Mason Hembree (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team)
Departing players (2025-26)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gracie Krejci | — | 24 | 29.6% | 25.4% | 38.1% | 3.7% | 18.3% |
| Hayden Yorty | — | 9 | 11.8% | 7.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.1% |
| Grace Ledwon | — | 2 | 3.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Clare Verslues | — | 1 | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Katie McCaffrey | — | 0 | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Claire Pruitt | — | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kendall Flanagan | — | 1 | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2025-26)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gracie Krejci | offense | 13 | 34 | 29.6% | 42.1% | 6.3% | 0.9% / 5.4% | 13.4 |
| Naomi Briggs | goalie | 13 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 45.5% | 45.4% / 0.1% | 10.5 |
| Morgan Hollenberg | offense | 14 | 8 | 6.5% | 16.1% | 10.1% | 0.0% / 10.1% | 6.0 |
| Lexi Nichol | offense | 10 | 12 | 10.3% | 12.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% / 2.4% | 4.4 |
| Celine Auberry | offense | 13 | 18 | 15.1% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.0% / 1.5% | 3.5 |
| Hayden Yorty | offense | 12 | 15 | 11.8% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.0% / 2.3% | 3.1 |
| Mason Hembree | offense | 13 | 7 | 5.3% | 7.6% | 1.8% | 0.0% / 1.8% | 2.6 |
| Elena Cirami | offense | 8 | 7 | 5.8% | 6.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 2.3 |
| Audrey Dehaven | offense | 9 | 8 | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 0.0% / 2.7% | 2.1 |
| Grace Ledwon | offense | 11 | 4 | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 0.6% / 3.0% | 1.8 |
| Molly Brandt | defense | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.7% | 5.0% | 3.6% / 1.3% | 1.4 |
| Molly Ashley | goalie | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.4% | 4.4% / 0.0% | 1.0 |
| Clare Verslues | offense | 10 | 3 | 1.4% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 0.0% / 3.2% | 1.0 |
| Katie McCaffrey | offense | 11 | 2 | 1.0% | 0.9% | 2.7% | 0.0% / 2.7% | 0.9 |
| Kendall Flanagan | offense | 5 | 3 | 1.4% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% / 1.0% | 0.5 |
| Addie Calvert | offense | 8 | 2 | 1.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% / 1.0% | 0.4 |
| Claire Pruitt | defense | 9 | 3 | 1.4% | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.0% / 1.7% | 0.4 |
| Claire Kozeny | defense | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 0.0% / 1.6% | 0.4 |
| Genevieve Kozeny | defense | 6 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% / 1.0% | 0.3 |
| Caylee Clancy | offense | 6 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% / 0.8% | 0.3 |
| Kinley Cutter | offense | 4 | 1 | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.1 |
| Brianna Henderson | defense | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.1 |
Projected matchups (2027)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Eureka | -9.8 | — |
| Wentzville | -9.3 | — |
| MICDS | -8.4 | — |
| Westminster | -6.8 | — |
| John Burroughs | -6.3 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -6.1 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -5.8 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -5.6 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -5.5 | — |
| Edwardsville | -4.3 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 3.6 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 3.1 | — |
| Oakville | -2.9 | — |
| Lafayette | -2.6 | — |
| Fox High School | -2.5 | — |
| Notre Dame | 2.3 | — |
| O'Fallon | -2.1 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | -1.6 | — |
| Northwest | -1.6 | — |
| Clayton | 1.6 | — |
| Parkway North | 1.2 | — |
| Parkway West | -1.2 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | -1.1 | — |
| St. Dominic | -1.1 | — |
| Parkway Central | 1.0 | — |
| Webster Groves | -1.0 | — |
| Parkway South | 0.9 | — |
| Belleville West | 0.8 | — |
| Francis Howell North | -0.6 | — |
| Lindbergh | -0.5 | — |
| Kirkwood | -0.5 | — |
| Francis Howell | 0.3 | — |
| Marquette | -0.2 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 0.1 | — |
| Pattonville | 0.1 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2027,
"team_name": "Ursuline Academy",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 19,
"current_composite_rank": 25,
"recommended_rank": 18,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": -1,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 46.08,
"score_drop": 20.8,
"returning_production_share": 0.623,
"departure_loss_pct": 20.8,
"legacy_prior": 1.0,
"seniors_count": 7,
"awards_points": 9,
"departing_awards_points": 5,
"returning_awards_points": 4,
"flag_codes": null,
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 0,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": null,
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 18,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": 18,
"actual_finish_rank": null,
"projection_error": null,
"is_backtest": false,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"Ursuline Academy\", \"avg_margin\": \"2.0\", \"board_note\": \"Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"18\", \"flag_codes\": \"\", \"flag_count\": \"0\", \"margin_std\": \"9.96\", \"score_drop\": \"20.8\", \"top8_games\": \"3\", \"margin_wins\": \"8\", \"top16_games\": \"6\", \"legacy_prior\": \"1.0\", \"margin_games\": \"14\", \"awards_points\": \"9\", \"margin_losses\": \"6\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"7\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"0-3\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"5.2\", \"departing_awards\": \"Gracie Krejci (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Clare Verslues (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Grace Ledwon (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Hayden Yorty (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team)\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"27.9\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"18\", \"returning_awards\": \"Morgan Hollenberg (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Celine Auberry (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Mason Hembree (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team)\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.457\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"-1\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"1.36\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"18\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"19\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"-11.0\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"20.8\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.533\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"-8.33\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"3.61\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"28.8\", \"projected_composite\": \"46.08\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"-1\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.533\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"True\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"25\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.542\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"5\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-10.83\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"4\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"feeder_pair_offense;late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"79.23\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"18\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.508\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.623\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"25\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 25,
"projected_margin_rating": -10.83,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": -8.33,
"projected_turnover_index": 79.23,
"departing_awards": "Gracie Krejci (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Clare Verslues (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Grace Ledwon (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Hayden Yorty (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team)",
"returning_awards": "Morgan Hollenberg (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Celine Auberry (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Mason Hembree (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team)",
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "ursuline-academy",
"effective_rank": 18,
"final_rank_resolved": 18
}