St. Joseph's Academy
prior #6 · recommended #6 · final #6 legacy 1.00Margin strength
0.4
vs top-16 avg 0.4
Projected margin
-4.0
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.573
as of 2025-05-30
Offense
66.01
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
56.58
domain stat
Possession
66.80
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #6
- Recommended (model)
- #7
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #6
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #10
- Projected margin rating
- -4.0
- Departure loss %
- 36.4%
- Returning production share
- 37.1%
- Departure loss
- 36.4%
- Seniors departing
- 8
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 1.00
Action-flagged
- · low_returning_heavy_loss
Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement
Secondary regression: late_underclass_surge;returning_feeder_core
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2024-25)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Janie Jackson | — | 50 | 25.2% | 21.2% | 28.8% | 6.7% | 16.1% |
| Bella Elpers | — | 62 | 31.0% | 27.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% | 11.3% |
| Clare Miller | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 24.6% | 7.0% |
| Ellie Glynias | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% |
| Kate Hulsen | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Nora Buhr | — | 9 | 4.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Cece Rea | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ellie Geoghegan | — | 3 | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2024-25)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Janie Jackson | offense | 16 | 49 | 25.2% | 32.7% | 9.3% | 0.0% / 9.3% | 14.0 |
| Bella Elpers | offense | 14 | 59 | 31.0% | 16.9% | 1.5% | 0.0% / 1.5% | 10.7 |
| Shannon Bryan | offense | 16 | 47 | 23.4% | 16.9% | 3.6% | 0.0% / 3.6% | 9.4 |
| Clare Miller | goalie | 13 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 33.6% | 32.4% / 1.2% | 6.6 |
| Eileen Lally | goalie | 13 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 23.1% | 22.6% / 0.5% | 4.6 |
| Ellie Glynias | defense | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 0.0% / 4.1% | 2.0 |
| Maria Najarro | offense | 12 | 14 | 6.4% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.0% / 1.6% | 2.0 |
| Jayne Riva | utility | 8 | 4 | 2.0% | 6.7% | 1.2% | 0.0% / 1.2% | 2.0 |
| Izzy Perez | defense | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 2.6% | 5.6% | 0.0% / 5.6% | 1.6 |
| Nora Buhr | offense | 14 | 10 | 4.7% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 0.0% / 1.5% | 1.5 |
| Ella Nichols | offense | 13 | 6 | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 0.0% / 2.1% | 1.4 |
| Brooke Butler | offense | 3 | 1 | 0.3% | 4.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 1.0 |
| Kate Hulsen | defense | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.8% | 3.7% | 0.0% / 3.7% | 0.9 |
| Tatum Smiley | offense | 10 | 1 | 0.4% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.0% / 1.3% | 0.8 |
| Katie Kirsch | offense | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.0% / 1.4% | 0.7 |
| Ellie Geoghegan | offense | 7 | 2 | 1.6% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 0.0% / 1.8% | 0.7 |
| Elle Cahill | offense | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.0% / 1.6% | 0.7 |
| Julia Boren | defense | 10 | 1 | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.0% / 1.7% | 0.6 |
| Karolyn Wientge | offense | 2 | 2 | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.3 |
| Addie McManus | offense | 3 | 2 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.2 |
| Anna Guerra | defense | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% / 0.8% | 0.2 |
| Reagan Pulliam | offense | 1 | 2 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.1 |
| Chloe Dankoski | offense | 1 | 1 | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.1 |
| Cece Rea | defense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.1 |
Projected matchups (2026)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Word | 8.5 | — |
| Belleville West | 7.3 | — |
| John Burroughs | -6.9 | — |
| Notre Dame | 6.9 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 5.9 | — |
| Eureka | -5.0 | — |
| Parkway Central | -4.9 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 4.4 | — |
| Northwest | 4.1 | — |
| MICDS | -3.8 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 3.8 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 3.6 | — |
| Wentzville | 3.0 | — |
| Francis Howell | 2.9 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -2.8 | — |
| Lindbergh | 2.8 | — |
| O'Fallon | 2.5 | — |
| Parkway West | 2.5 | — |
| St. Dominic | 2.4 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 2.4 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 2.2 | — |
| Parkway South | 2.1 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -2.0 | — |
| Webster Groves | 1.7 | — |
| Kirkwood | 1.4 | — |
| Lafayette | 1.2 | — |
| Marquette | 1.0 | — |
| Oakville | 0.9 | — |
| Edwardsville | -0.9 | — |
| Clayton | -0.9 | — |
| Visitation Academy | 0.8 | — |
| Westminster | -0.1 | — |
| Fox High School | 0.0 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2026,
"team_name": "St. Joseph's Academy",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 6,
"current_composite_rank": 7,
"recommended_rank": 7,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 1,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 39.27,
"score_drop": 36.4,
"returning_production_share": 0.371,
"departure_loss_pct": 36.4,
"legacy_prior": 1.0,
"seniors_count": 8,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": "low_returning_heavy_loss",
"action_flag_codes": "low_returning_heavy_loss",
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 1,
"action_flag_count": 1,
"needs_board_review": "yes",
"review_priority": "medium",
"regression_tracks": "underclass_surge_or_replacement",
"board_note": "Recommend rank 7 (prior finish 6). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement.",
"secondary_slot_delta": -2,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": "late_underclass_surge;returning_feeder_core",
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 6,
"adjusted_rank_delta": -1,
"league_order_rank": null,
"actual_finish_rank": 6,
"projection_error": 1.0,
"is_backtest": true,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2025_26_backtest\", \"team_name\": \"St. Joseph's Academy\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 7 (prior finish 6). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.132\", \"final_rank\": \"\", \"flag_codes\": \"low_returning_heavy_loss\", \"flag_count\": \"1\", \"score_drop\": \"36.4\", \"legacy_prior\": \"1.0\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"8\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"medium\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"34.1\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"38.0\", \"projection_error\": \"1\", \"recommended_rank\": \"7\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.716\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"low_returning_heavy_loss\", \"action_flag_count\": \"1\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"6\", \"regression_tracks\": \"underclass_surge_or_replacement\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"6\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"36.4\", \"needs_board_review\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.378\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"-1\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"38.7\", \"projected_composite\": \"39.27\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"1\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.378\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"-2\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"True\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"7\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.424\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-4.01\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"feeder_pair_offense;late_underclass_surge_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"63.64\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"6\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.48\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.371\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"late_underclass_surge;returning_feeder_core\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"10\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 10,
"projected_margin_rating": -4.01,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": null,
"projected_turnover_index": 63.64,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "st-joseph-s-academy",
"effective_rank": 6,
"final_rank_resolved": 6
}