St. Dominic
prior #14 · recommended #14 · final #14 legacy 0.50Margin strength
-5.4
vs top-16 avg -5.4
Projected margin
-8.0
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.516
as of 2025-05-30
Offense
62.34
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
53.80
domain stat
Possession
62.95
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #14
- Recommended (model)
- #14
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #14
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #20
- Projected margin rating
- -8.0
- Departure loss %
- 21.7%
- Returning production share
- 54.8%
- Departure loss
- 21.7%
- Seniors departing
- 8
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.50
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2024-25)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grace Illy | — | 16 | 11.2% | 7.1% | 21.6% | 0.0% | 7.8% |
| Josie Maassen | — | 8 | 5.7% | 1.6% | 13.8% | 0.0% | 4.2% |
| Caroline Nance | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.6% | 3.7% |
| Brooke Prinster | — | 21 | 14.3% | 10.2% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 3.0% |
| Mandy Lawson | — | 11 | 7.5% | 3.4% | 6.1% | 0.0% | 2.6% |
| Lucy Ryan | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Ella Curtin | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Anna Rolwes | — | 6 | 4.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Player impact (2024-25)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grace Illy | offense | 13 | 18 | 11.2% | 25.5% | 2.7% | 0.0% / 2.7% | 7.5 |
| Rose Chamberlain | goalie | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 39.0% | 39.0% / 0.0% | 7.3 |
| Gwenny Roberts | offense | 14 | 43 | 27.1% | 0.0% | 4.8% | 0.0% / 4.8% | 6.8 |
| Josie Maassen | offense | 13 | 9 | 5.7% | 17.8% | 2.6% | 0.0% / 2.6% | 4.9 |
| Brooke Prinster | offense | 14 | 23 | 14.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 0.0% / 3.4% | 4.4 |
| sam Lisweski | offense | 12 | 7 | 3.6% | 16.4% | 3.1% | 0.0% / 3.1% | 4.3 |
| Mandy Lawson | offense | 11 | 13 | 7.5% | 10.1% | 2.5% | 0.0% / 2.5% | 3.9 |
| Whitney Downard | offense | 10 | 16 | 9.1% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 0.0% / 3.9% | 3.8 |
| Bree Moore | offense | 13 | 19 | 11.8% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.0% / 2.0% | 3.7 |
| Caroline Nance | defense | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.1% | 16.0% / 0.1% | 3.0 |
| Olivia Roberts | offense | 10 | 1 | 0.4% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 0.0% / 3.4% | 1.8 |
| McKenna Schmidt | offense | 13 | 3 | 1.5% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 0.0% / 2.8% | 1.8 |
| Anna Rolwes | offense | 13 | 7 | 4.4% | 0.0% | 2.8% | 0.0% / 2.8% | 1.5 |
| Lucy Ryan | defense | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 0.0% / 3.6% | 1.1 |
| Sophia Riffle | offense | 10 | 1 | 0.4% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 0.0% / 2.8% | 0.8 |
| Camila Keithley | offense | 5 | 2 | 1.3% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% / 0.7% | 0.7 |
| Ella Curtin | defense | 9 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 2.9% | 0.0% / 2.9% | 0.6 |
| Abby Carney | utility | 5 | 3 | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.4 |
| Anna Corrgian | defense | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% / 0.6% | 0.1 |
Projected matchups (2026)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| John Burroughs | -9.3 | — |
| Eureka | -7.4 | — |
| Parkway Central | -7.2 | — |
| MICDS | -6.2 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 6.1 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -5.2 | — |
| Belleville West | 4.9 | — |
| Notre Dame | 4.5 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -4.4 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 3.5 | — |
| Clayton | -3.3 | — |
| Edwardsville | -3.3 | — |
| Westminster | -2.5 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -2.4 | — |
| Fox High School | -2.4 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 2.0 | — |
| Northwest | 1.7 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -1.6 | — |
| Oakville | -1.5 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 1.4 | — |
| Marquette | -1.4 | — |
| Lafayette | -1.2 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 1.2 | — |
| Kirkwood | -1.0 | — |
| Webster Groves | -0.7 | — |
| Wentzville | 0.6 | — |
| Francis Howell | 0.5 | — |
| Lindbergh | 0.4 | — |
| Parkway South | -0.3 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | -0.2 | — |
| O'Fallon | 0.1 | — |
| Parkway West | 0.1 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 0.0 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2026,
"team_name": "St. Dominic",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 14,
"current_composite_rank": 23,
"recommended_rank": 14,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 0,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 46.13,
"score_drop": 21.7,
"returning_production_share": 0.548,
"departure_loss_pct": 21.7,
"legacy_prior": 0.499,
"seniors_count": 8,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": null,
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 0,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": null,
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 14,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": null,
"actual_finish_rank": 10,
"projection_error": 4.0,
"is_backtest": true,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2025_26_backtest\", \"team_name\": \"St. Dominic\", \"board_note\": \"Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"\", \"flag_codes\": \"\", \"flag_count\": \"0\", \"score_drop\": \"21.7\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.499\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"8\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"16.1\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"17.1\", \"projection_error\": \"4\", \"recommended_rank\": \"14\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.271\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"14\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"10\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"21.7\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.425\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"31.8\", \"projected_composite\": \"46.13\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.425\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"23\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.6\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-8.0\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"78.3\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"14\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.62\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.548\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"20\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 20,
"projected_margin_rating": -8.0,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": null,
"projected_turnover_index": 78.3,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "st-dominic",
"effective_rank": 14,
"final_rank_resolved": 14
}