Rockwood Summit
prior #13 · recommended #12 · final #12 legacy 0.82Margin strength
-6.8
vs top-16 avg -6.8
Projected margin
-8.0
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.536
as of 2025-05-30
Offense
54.81
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
59.38
domain stat
Possession
61.66
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #13
- Recommended (model)
- #12
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #12
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #21
- Projected margin rating
- -8.0
- Departure loss %
- 10.2%
- Returning production share
- 73.3%
- Departure loss
- 10.2%
- Seniors departing
- 10
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.82
Info flags:
roster_margin_split
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2024-25)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clodagh Kloos | — | 17 | 12.5% | 8.4% | 16.4% | 0.6% | 6.0% |
| Addy Horn | — | 21 | 15.8% | 11.7% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 3.5% |
| Taylor Gordon | — | 9 | 7.1% | 3.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| Abby Glenn | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Addie White | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ava Midden | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ella Schroll | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Karlee Bishop | — | 5 | 4.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kenzie McClanahan | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2024-25)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molly Jones | offense | 14 | 12 | 9.4% | 47.9% | 9.0% | 0.0% / 9.0% | 12.2 |
| Karlee Brandt | goalie | 13 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 52.9% | 49.0% / 3.9% | 11.0 |
| Clodagh Kloos | offense | 11 | 15 | 12.4% | 20.3% | 3.2% | 0.0% / 3.2% | 6.7 |
| Emery Gregston | offense | 14 | 17 | 13.0% | 14.5% | 3.1% | 0.0% / 3.1% | 5.7 |
| Addy Horn | offense | 14 | 20 | 15.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 0.0% / 5.0% | 4.9 |
| Bianca Carlson | offense | 14 | 18 | 14.4% | 0.6% | 2.9% | 0.0% / 2.9% | 3.5 |
| Hailey Meyer | offense | 7 | 16 | 14.2% | 0.0% | 2.5% | 0.0% / 2.5% | 3.2 |
| Chloe Phillips | offense | 12 | 4 | 3.7% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 0.0% / 3.2% | 2.2 |
| Taylor Gordon | offense | 10 | 9 | 7.0% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% / 1.3% | 1.6 |
| Bailey Frenz | goalie | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% / 0.1% | 1.3 |
| Abby Glenn | offense | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 0.0% / 2.6% | 1.2 |
| Karlee Bishop | offense | 10 | 6 | 4.0% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% / 0.7% | 1.0 |
| Tracy Vu | offense | 8 | 5 | 4.0% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% / 1.1% | 1.0 |
| Ava Proctor | defense | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.0% / 1.6% | 0.5 |
| Natalie Moehle | offense | 3 | 2 | 1.9% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.5 |
| Addie White | defense | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.0% / 1.7% | 0.4 |
| Kenzie McClanahan | defense | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% / 1.0% | 0.3 |
| McKenna Pedrotti | utility | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.3 |
| Ella Schroll | defense | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% / 0.8% | 0.2 |
| Briana Huyen | offense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.1 |
| Ava Midden | defense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Kinzley Phillips | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2026)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| John Burroughs | -9.3 | — |
| Eureka | -7.5 | — |
| Parkway Central | -7.3 | — |
| MICDS | -6.3 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 6.1 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -5.2 | — |
| Belleville West | 4.9 | — |
| Notre Dame | 4.5 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -4.4 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 3.5 | — |
| Edwardsville | -3.4 | — |
| Clayton | -3.3 | — |
| Westminster | -2.6 | — |
| Fox High School | -2.4 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -2.4 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 2.0 | — |
| Northwest | 1.6 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -1.6 | — |
| Oakville | -1.5 | — |
| Marquette | -1.5 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 1.4 | — |
| Lafayette | -1.2 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 1.2 | — |
| Kirkwood | -1.0 | — |
| Webster Groves | -0.7 | — |
| Wentzville | 0.6 | — |
| Francis Howell | 0.5 | — |
| Lindbergh | 0.4 | — |
| Parkway South | -0.3 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | -0.2 | — |
| O'Fallon | 0.0 | — |
| St. Dominic | 0.0 | — |
| Parkway West | 0.0 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2026,
"team_name": "Rockwood Summit",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 13,
"current_composite_rank": 25,
"recommended_rank": 12,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": -1,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 51.75,
"score_drop": 10.2,
"returning_production_share": 0.733,
"departure_loss_pct": 10.2,
"legacy_prior": 0.817,
"seniors_count": 10,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": "roster_margin_split",
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": "roster_margin_split",
"flag_count": 1,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": "medium",
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Recommend rank 12 (prior finish 13). Flagged for board review: roster_margin_split. Suggested follow-up: margin_vs_roster_review.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 12,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": null,
"actual_finish_rank": 16,
"projection_error": -4.0,
"is_backtest": true,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2025_26_backtest\", \"team_name\": \"Rockwood Summit\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 12 (prior finish 13). Flagged for board review: roster_margin_split. Suggested follow-up: margin_vs_roster_review.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"\", \"flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split\", \"flag_count\": \"1\", \"score_drop\": \"10.2\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.817\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"10\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split\", \"review_priority\": \"medium\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"2.9\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"17.2\", \"projection_error\": \"-4\", \"recommended_rank\": \"12\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.347\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"-1\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"13\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"16\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"10.2\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.685\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"11.5\", \"projected_composite\": \"51.75\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"-1\", \"composite_split_note\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.685\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"25\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.558\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-8.04\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"89.82\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"12\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.66\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.733\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"21\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 21,
"projected_margin_rating": -8.04,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": null,
"projected_turnover_index": 89.82,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "rockwood-summit",
"effective_rank": 12,
"final_rank_resolved": 12
}