Pattonville
prior #34 · recommended #32 · final #32 legacy 0.35Margin strength
-9.7
vs top-16 avg -13.0
Projected margin
-11.0
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.324
as of 2026-05-30
Offense
32.54
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
31.28
domain stat
Possession
32.54
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #34
- Recommended (model)
- #32
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #32
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #26
- Projected margin rating
- -11.0
- Departure loss %
- 10.3%
- Returning production share
- 63.4%
- Departure loss
- 10.3%
- Seniors departing
- 7
- Awards points
- +3 returning · −3 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.35
Awards
Departing
Paiten Buehrle (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Kijah Chamberlain (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention)
Returning
Lola Hennrich (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Zion Brock (all conference: Red; 2nd Team)
Departing players (2025-26)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paiten Buehrle | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 32.8% | 2.8% | 8.9% |
| Valentina Alatorre Quintero | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.0% | 1.0% |
| Kijah Chamberlain | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Disai Beard | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2025-26)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lola Hennrich | offense | 1 | 3 | 100.0% | 61.3% | 5.5% | 0.0% / 5.5% | 18.0 |
| Abby Silverstein | goalie | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% / 0.0% | 6.0 |
| Paiten Buehrle | defense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 38.8% | 8.8% | 0.0% / 8.8% | 4.8 |
| Valentina Alatorre Quintero | defense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% / 10.0% | 1.1 |
| Kijah Chamberlain | defense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.4% | 0.0% / 7.4% | 0.8 |
| Disai Beard | defense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.9% | 0.0% / 3.9% | 0.4 |
| Ca'Liyah Wallace | defense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.9% | 0.0% / 3.9% | 0.4 |
| Kassie Mckeever | defense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 0.0% / 1.8% | 0.2 |
| Kaliyah Petty | defense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 0.0% / 1.8% | 0.2 |
| Zion Brock | defense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 0.0% / 1.8% | 0.2 |
Projected matchups (2027)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Eureka | -9.8 | — |
| Wentzville | -9.4 | — |
| MICDS | -8.5 | — |
| Westminster | -6.9 | — |
| John Burroughs | -6.4 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -6.1 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -5.9 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -5.7 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -5.6 | — |
| Edwardsville | -4.4 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 3.5 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 3.1 | — |
| Oakville | -3.0 | — |
| Lafayette | -2.7 | — |
| Fox High School | -2.6 | — |
| Notre Dame | 2.3 | — |
| O'Fallon | -2.2 | — |
| Northwest | -1.7 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | -1.6 | — |
| Clayton | 1.5 | — |
| Parkway West | -1.3 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | -1.2 | — |
| St. Dominic | -1.2 | — |
| Parkway North | 1.1 | — |
| Webster Groves | -1.1 | — |
| Parkway Central | 0.9 | — |
| Parkway South | 0.8 | — |
| Francis Howell North | -0.7 | — |
| Belleville West | 0.7 | — |
| Kirkwood | -0.6 | — |
| Lindbergh | -0.6 | — |
| Marquette | -0.3 | — |
| Francis Howell | 0.2 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | -0.1 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 0.1 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2027,
"team_name": "Pattonville",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 34,
"current_composite_rank": 30,
"recommended_rank": 32,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": -2,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 29.04,
"score_drop": 10.3,
"returning_production_share": 0.634,
"departure_loss_pct": 10.3,
"legacy_prior": 0.354,
"seniors_count": 7,
"awards_points": 8,
"departing_awards_points": 3,
"returning_awards_points": 3,
"flag_codes": null,
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 0,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": null,
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 32,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": 32,
"actual_finish_rank": null,
"projection_error": null,
"is_backtest": false,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"Pattonville\", \"avg_margin\": \"-11.91\", \"board_note\": \"Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"32\", \"flag_codes\": \"\", \"flag_count\": \"0\", \"margin_std\": \"2.3\", \"score_drop\": \"10.3\", \"top8_games\": \"0\", \"margin_wins\": \"0\", \"top16_games\": \"1\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.354\", \"margin_games\": \"11\", \"awards_points\": \"8\", \"margin_losses\": \"11\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"7\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"8.2\", \"departing_awards\": \"Paiten Buehrle (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Kijah Chamberlain (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention)\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"0.0\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"32\", \"returning_awards\": \"Lola Hennrich (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Zion Brock (all conference: Red; 2nd Team)\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.0\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"-2\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"-9.73\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"32\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"34\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"0.0\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"10.3\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.6\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"-13.0\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"0.0\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"22.1\", \"projected_composite\": \"29.04\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"-2\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.6\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"30\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.0\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"3\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-10.97\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"3\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"89.67\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"32\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"1.0\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.634\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"26\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 26,
"projected_margin_rating": -10.97,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": -13.0,
"projected_turnover_index": 89.67,
"departing_awards": "Paiten Buehrle (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Kijah Chamberlain (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention)",
"returning_awards": "Lola Hennrich (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Zion Brock (all conference: Red; 2nd Team)",
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "pattonville",
"effective_rank": 32,
"final_rank_resolved": 32
}