Parkway West
prior #12 · recommended #13 · final #13 legacy 1.00Margin strength
-4.5
vs top-16 avg -4.5
Projected margin
-8.1
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.516
as of 2025-05-30
Offense
52.13
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
51.19
domain stat
Possession
47.26
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #12
- Recommended (model)
- #13
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #13
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #22
- Projected margin rating
- -8.1
- Departure loss %
- 30.1%
- Returning production share
- 31.1%
- Departure loss
- 30.1%
- Seniors departing
- 12
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 1.00
Action-flagged
- · low_returning_heavy_loss
Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement
Info flags:
roster_margin_split
Secondary regression: legacy_depth_floor
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2024-25)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Hyghness Ward | — | 47 | 30.2% | 26.1% | 26.1% | 2.6% | 11.6% |
| Maddy Tarter | — | 29 | 18.8% | 14.7% | 21.0% | 2.5% | 8.1% |
| Emily Kate Beach | — | 5 | 3.3% | 0.0% | 10.9% | 3.9% | 3.1% |
| Zoey Ware | — | 24 | 16.0% | 11.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.5% |
| Gabbie Kerber | — | 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% |
| Gabby Catlett | — | 15 | 9.8% | 5.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.2% |
| Mackenzie Silva | — | 10 | 6.6% | 2.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| Milana Hagemann | — | 9 | 6.2% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| Caitlyn Obermeyer | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Brooke Hoenecke | — | 0 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2024-25)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Hyghness Ward | offense | 17 | 42 | 30.2% | 30.1% | 5.2% | 0.0% / 5.2% | 10.5 |
| Jadyn Rocchio | goalie | 16 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 53.1% | 51.2% / 1.9% | 9.5 |
| Maddy Tarter | offense | 17 | 27 | 18.8% | 25.0% | 5.2% | 0.0% / 5.2% | 7.7 |
| Emily Kate Beach | offense | 15 | 5 | 3.3% | 14.8% | 6.6% | 0.0% / 6.6% | 3.8 |
| Zoey Ware | offense | 14 | 23 | 16.0% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.0% / 1.5% | 3.6 |
| Gabbie Kerber | defense | 17 | 5 | 3.8% | 11.3% | 5.1% | 0.0% / 5.1% | 2.4 |
| Gabby Catlett | offense | 14 | 14 | 9.8% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 0.0% / 2.1% | 2.3 |
| Maria De Juan Jareno | offense | 14 | 1 | 0.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 0.0% / 5.0% | 1.9 |
| Mackenzie Silva | offense | 16 | 10 | 6.6% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 0.0% / 2.1% | 1.7 |
| Milana Hagemann | offense | 11 | 8 | 6.2% | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.0% / 1.7% | 1.4 |
| Annie Deckelbaum | offense | 11 | 3 | 2.4% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% / 1.0% | 1.0 |
| Elena Potsou | defense | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.0% / 1.8% | 0.7 |
| Peyton Solomon | goalie | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% / 0.0% | 0.5 |
| Hannah Jennings | offense | 7 | 2 | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% / 1.0% | 0.5 |
| Caitlyn Obermeyer | defense | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.9% | 0.0% / 2.9% | 0.5 |
| Brooke Hoenecke | offense | 8 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 2.2% | 0.8% / 1.4% | 0.5 |
| Kate McCammon | offense | 5 | 1 | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.2 |
| Ella Wheeler | defense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.1 |
| Aliza Schroeder | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.1 |
Projected matchups (2026)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| John Burroughs | -9.4 | — |
| Eureka | -7.5 | — |
| Parkway Central | -7.3 | — |
| MICDS | -6.3 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 6.0 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -5.2 | — |
| Belleville West | 4.8 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -4.5 | — |
| Notre Dame | 4.4 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 3.4 | — |
| Edwardsville | -3.4 | — |
| Clayton | -3.4 | — |
| Westminster | -2.6 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -2.5 | — |
| Fox High School | -2.4 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 2.0 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -1.7 | — |
| Oakville | -1.6 | — |
| Northwest | 1.6 | — |
| Marquette | -1.5 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 1.3 | — |
| Lafayette | -1.2 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 1.1 | — |
| Kirkwood | -1.0 | — |
| Webster Groves | -0.8 | — |
| Wentzville | 0.5 | — |
| Lindbergh | 0.4 | — |
| Parkway South | -0.4 | — |
| Francis Howell | 0.4 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | -0.2 | — |
| St. Dominic | -0.1 | — |
| O'Fallon | 0.0 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 0.0 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2026,
"team_name": "Parkway West",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 12,
"current_composite_rank": 19,
"recommended_rank": 13,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 1,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 34.84,
"score_drop": 30.1,
"returning_production_share": 0.311,
"departure_loss_pct": 30.1,
"legacy_prior": 1.0,
"seniors_count": 12,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": "roster_margin_split;low_returning_heavy_loss",
"action_flag_codes": "low_returning_heavy_loss",
"info_flag_codes": "roster_margin_split",
"flag_count": 2,
"action_flag_count": 1,
"needs_board_review": "yes",
"review_priority": "medium",
"regression_tracks": "underclass_surge_or_replacement",
"board_note": "Recommend rank 13 (prior finish 12). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement.",
"secondary_slot_delta": -1,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": "legacy_depth_floor",
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 13,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": null,
"actual_finish_rank": 17,
"projection_error": -4.0,
"is_backtest": true,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2025_26_backtest\", \"team_name\": \"Parkway West\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 13 (prior finish 12). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.917\", \"final_rank\": \"\", \"flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split;low_returning_heavy_loss\", \"flag_count\": \"2\", \"score_drop\": \"30.1\", \"legacy_prior\": \"1.0\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"12\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split\", \"review_priority\": \"medium\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"12.0\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"38.0\", \"projection_error\": \"-4\", \"recommended_rank\": \"13\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.169\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"low_returning_heavy_loss\", \"action_flag_count\": \"1\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"1\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"12\", \"regression_tracks\": \"underclass_surge_or_replacement\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"17\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"30.1\", \"needs_board_review\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.143\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"42.0\", \"projected_composite\": \"34.84\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"1\", \"composite_split_note\": \"also\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.143\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"-1\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"True\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"19\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.042\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-8.11\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"feeder_pair_offense\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"69.89\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"13\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.07\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.311\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"legacy_depth_floor\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"22\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 22,
"projected_margin_rating": -8.11,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": null,
"projected_turnover_index": 69.89,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "parkway-west",
"effective_rank": 13,
"final_rank_resolved": 13
}