Parkway West
prior #17 · recommended #17 · final #17 legacy 1.00Margin strength
-7.4
vs top-16 avg -7.4
Projected margin
-8.8
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.514
as of 2026-05-30
Offense
44.74
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
65.94
domain stat
Possession
44.83
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #17
- Recommended (model)
- #17
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #17
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #17
- Projected margin rating
- -8.8
- Departure loss %
- 11.6%
- Returning production share
- 70.2%
- Departure loss
- 11.6%
- Seniors departing
- 9
- Awards points
- +6 returning · −3 departing
- Legacy prior
- 1.00
Awards
Departing
Hannah Jennings (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Annie Deckelbaum (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention)
Returning
Maria De Juan Jareno (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Andrea Restrepo (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Gabriella Pupillo (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Natalie Beach (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Peyton Solomon (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention)
Departing players (2025-26)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannah Jennings | — | 7 | 9.6% | 5.4% | 23.6% | 3.5% | 7.6% |
| Annie Deckelbaum | — | 9 | 11.2% | 7.0% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.3% |
| Liles Gurganus | — | 6 | 8.5% | 4.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% |
| Caitlyn Dunn | — | 5 | 7.1% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| Aliza Schroeder | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ella Wheeler | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kate McCammon | — | 2 | 3.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lila Reuther | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2025-26)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Solomon | goalie | 15 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% / 0.0% | 12.7 |
| Maria De Juan Jareno | offense | 15 | 21 | 19.3% | 34.4% | 5.6% | 0.0% / 5.6% | 8.9 |
| Hannah Jennings | offense | 14 | 11 | 9.6% | 27.6% | 6.1% | 0.0% / 6.1% | 6.6 |
| Gabriella Pupillo | offense | 14 | 10 | 10.0% | 15.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% / 4.2% | 4.6 |
| Natalie Beach | offense | 13 | 11 | 11.4% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 0.0% / 3.0% | 4.0 |
| Annie Deckelbaum | offense | 14 | 14 | 11.2% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 0.0% / 3.9% | 3.4 |
| Macyn Tarter | offense | 14 | 14 | 14.0% | 0.6% | 2.5% | 0.0% / 2.5% | 2.8 |
| Liles Gurganus | offense | 13 | 9 | 8.5% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% / 1.5% | 1.7 |
| Caitlyn Dunn | offense | 12 | 8 | 7.1% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% / 1.3% | 1.4 |
| Kate McCammon | offense | 11 | 5 | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.0% / 1.2% | 1.2 |
| Mia Burch | defense | 13 | 1 | 0.5% | 0.8% | 4.0% | 0.0% / 4.0% | 1.0 |
| Andrea Restrepo | defense | 11 | 1 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 2.9% | 0.0% / 2.9% | 0.7 |
| Molly Ulmer | defense | 12 | 1 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 2.7% | 0.0% / 2.7% | 0.6 |
| Ella Wheeler | defense | 8 | 1 | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 0.0% / 1.8% | 0.6 |
| Charlie Goldstein | offense | 8 | 2 | 1.9% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 0.5 |
| Lila Reuther | defense | 8 | 1 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.0% / 1.7% | 0.4 |
| Aliza Schroeder | defense | 10 | 1 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% / 1.5% | 0.3 |
| Alex Pitassi | offense | 5 | 1 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.1 |
Projected matchups (2027)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Eureka | -8.5 | — |
| Wentzville | -8.1 | — |
| MICDS | -7.2 | — |
| Westminster | -5.5 | — |
| John Burroughs | -5.1 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -4.8 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 4.8 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -4.6 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 4.4 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -4.4 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -4.3 | — |
| Notre Dame | 3.6 | — |
| Edwardsville | -3.1 | — |
| Clayton | 2.8 | — |
| Parkway North | 2.4 | — |
| Parkway Central | 2.3 | — |
| Parkway South | 2.1 | — |
| Belleville West | 2.0 | — |
| Oakville | -1.7 | — |
| Francis Howell | 1.5 | — |
| Lafayette | -1.4 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 1.4 | — |
| Pattonville | 1.3 | — |
| Fox High School | -1.3 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 1.2 | — |
| Marquette | 1.0 | — |
| O'Fallon | -0.9 | — |
| Lindbergh | 0.8 | — |
| Kirkwood | 0.7 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 0.6 | — |
| Northwest | -0.4 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | -0.3 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 0.2 | — |
| Webster Groves | 0.2 | — |
| St. Dominic | 0.1 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2027,
"team_name": "Parkway West",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 17,
"current_composite_rank": 21,
"recommended_rank": 17,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 0,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 46.41,
"score_drop": 11.6,
"returning_production_share": 0.702,
"departure_loss_pct": 11.6,
"legacy_prior": 1.0,
"seniors_count": 9,
"awards_points": 9,
"departing_awards_points": 3,
"returning_awards_points": 6,
"flag_codes": null,
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 0,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": null,
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 17,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": 17,
"actual_finish_rank": null,
"projection_error": null,
"is_backtest": false,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"Parkway West\", \"avg_margin\": \"-1.4\", \"board_note\": \"Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.056\", \"final_rank\": \"17\", \"flag_codes\": \"\", \"flag_count\": \"0\", \"margin_std\": \"8.55\", \"score_drop\": \"11.6\", \"top8_games\": \"3\", \"margin_wins\": \"8\", \"top16_games\": \"8\", \"legacy_prior\": \"1.0\", \"margin_games\": \"15\", \"awards_points\": \"9\", \"margin_losses\": \"7\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"9\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"0-3\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"4.7\", \"departing_awards\": \"Hannah Jennings (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Annie Deckelbaum (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention)\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"14.9\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"17\", \"returning_awards\": \"Maria De Juan Jareno (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Andrea Restrepo (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Gabriella Pupillo (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Natalie Beach (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Peyton Solomon (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention)\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.321\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"-1.13\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"17\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"17\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"-12.33\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"11.6\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.652\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"-7.38\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"6.76\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"17.4\", \"projected_composite\": \"46.41\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.652\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"21\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.472\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"3\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-8.77\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"6\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"88.42\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"17\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.609\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.702\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"17\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 17,
"projected_margin_rating": -8.77,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": -7.38,
"projected_turnover_index": 88.42,
"departing_awards": "Hannah Jennings (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Annie Deckelbaum (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention)",
"returning_awards": "Maria De Juan Jareno (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Andrea Restrepo (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Gabriella Pupillo (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Natalie Beach (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Peyton Solomon (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention)",
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "parkway-west",
"effective_rank": 17,
"final_rank_resolved": 17
}