Parkway South
prior #26 · recommended #24 · final #24 legacy 0.61Margin strength
-5.0
vs top-16 avg -5.0
Projected margin
-7.5
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.447
as of 2025-05-30
Offense
56.01
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
61.33
domain stat
Possession
56.84
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #26
- Recommended (model)
- #25
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #24
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #18
- Projected margin rating
- -7.5
- Departure loss %
- 20.9%
- Returning production share
- 62.0%
- Departure loss
- 20.9%
- Seniors departing
- 5
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.61
Action-flagged
- · backtest_large_error
Suggested follow-up: post_hoc_regression_candidate
Secondary regression: backtest_error_shrink
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2024-25)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyssa Bryant | — | 26 | 22.9% | 18.8% | 34.5% | 2.5% | 14.6% |
| Brynne Smith | — | 13 | 11.3% | 7.2% | 15.3% | 0.0% | 5.9% |
| Sarah Fehr | — | 6 | 5.9% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| Kamina Royal | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Riley Hilligoss | — | 2 | 2.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2024-25)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abby Karl | offense | 16 | 52 | 34.2% | 27.7% | 8.8% | 0.0% / 8.8% | 13.1 |
| Natalie Parra | goalie | 16 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 56.5% | 55.0% / 1.5% | 12.1 |
| Alyssa Bryant | offense | 16 | 34 | 22.9% | 38.4% | 5.1% | 0.0% / 5.1% | 11.9 |
| Brynne Smith | offense | 15 | 20 | 11.3% | 19.2% | 1.9% | 0.0% / 1.9% | 5.8 |
| Alexis Wright | offense | 15 | 19 | 11.2% | 1.4% | 6.6% | 0.0% / 6.6% | 3.8 |
| Tori Knowles | offense | 14 | 4 | 1.8% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 0.0% / 5.9% | 2.2 |
| Abby Eickhoff | offense | 15 | 10 | 5.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 0.0% / 2.1% | 1.9 |
| Sarah Fehr | offense | 13 | 11 | 5.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% / 0.7% | 1.6 |
| Ella Foresman | offense | 15 | 5 | 2.4% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 0.0% / 3.1% | 1.4 |
| Kamina Royal | offense | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.0% / 2.0% | 0.8 |
| Riley Hilligoss | offense | 6 | 3 | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 0.8 |
| Ava Wood | offense | 8 | 1 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 2.2% | 0.0% / 2.2% | 0.6 |
| Easton Bushong | defense | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 0.0% / 1.6% | 0.5 |
| Ava Bucher | offense | 7 | 4 | 1.7% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% / 0.6% | 0.5 |
| Lola Sanders | defense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% / 1.0% | 0.2 |
| Campbell McCool | defense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% / 0.8% | 0.2 |
| Riley Stiefer | offense | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.2 |
| Abby Laird | utility | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.1 |
Projected matchups (2026)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| John Burroughs | -9.0 | — |
| Eureka | -7.1 | — |
| Parkway Central | -7.0 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 6.4 | — |
| MICDS | -5.9 | — |
| Belleville West | 5.2 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -4.9 | — |
| Notre Dame | 4.8 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -4.1 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 3.8 | — |
| Edwardsville | -3.0 | — |
| Clayton | -3.0 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 2.3 | — |
| Westminster | -2.2 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -2.1 | — |
| Fox High School | -2.1 | — |
| Northwest | 2.0 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 1.7 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 1.5 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -1.3 | — |
| Oakville | -1.2 | — |
| Marquette | -1.1 | — |
| Lafayette | -0.9 | — |
| Wentzville | 0.9 | — |
| Francis Howell | 0.8 | — |
| Lindbergh | 0.7 | — |
| Kirkwood | -0.7 | — |
| Webster Groves | -0.4 | — |
| Parkway West | 0.4 | — |
| O'Fallon | 0.4 | — |
| St. Dominic | 0.3 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 0.3 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 0.1 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2026,
"team_name": "Parkway South",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 26,
"current_composite_rank": 21,
"recommended_rank": 25,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": -1,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 46.27,
"score_drop": 20.9,
"returning_production_share": 0.62,
"departure_loss_pct": 20.9,
"legacy_prior": 0.614,
"seniors_count": 5,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": "backtest_large_error",
"action_flag_codes": "backtest_large_error",
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 1,
"action_flag_count": 1,
"needs_board_review": "yes",
"review_priority": "high",
"regression_tracks": "post_hoc_regression_candidate",
"board_note": "Recommend rank 25 (prior finish 26). Flagged for board review: backtest_large_error. Suggested follow-up: post_hoc_regression_candidate.",
"secondary_slot_delta": -1,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": "backtest_error_shrink",
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 24,
"adjusted_rank_delta": -1,
"league_order_rank": null,
"actual_finish_rank": 18,
"projection_error": 7.0,
"is_backtest": true,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2025_26_backtest\", \"team_name\": \"Parkway South\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 25 (prior finish 26). Flagged for board review: backtest_large_error. Suggested follow-up: post_hoc_regression_candidate.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.143\", \"final_rank\": \"\", \"flag_codes\": \"backtest_large_error\", \"flag_count\": \"1\", \"score_drop\": \"20.9\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.614\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"5\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"high\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"2.5\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"21.6\", \"projection_error\": \"7\", \"recommended_rank\": \"25\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.215\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"backtest_large_error\", \"action_flag_count\": \"1\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"-2\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"26\", \"regression_tracks\": \"post_hoc_regression_candidate\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"18\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"20.9\", \"needs_board_review\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.397\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"-1\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"39.1\", \"projected_composite\": \"46.27\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"-1\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.397\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"-1\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"21\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.429\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-7.51\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"79.07\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"24\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.55\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.62\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"backtest_error_shrink\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"18\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 18,
"projected_margin_rating": -7.51,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": null,
"projected_turnover_index": 79.07,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "parkway-south",
"effective_rank": 24,
"final_rank_resolved": 24
}