Parkway South
prior #18 · recommended #19 · final #19 legacy 0.61Margin strength
-7.7
vs top-16 avg -7.7
Projected margin
-12.3
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.508
as of 2026-05-30
Offense
57.38
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
70.34
domain stat
Possession
65.45
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #18
- Recommended (model)
- #19
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #19
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #30
- Projected margin rating
- -12.3
- Departure loss %
- 38.3%
- Returning production share
- 37.9%
- Departure loss
- 38.3%
- Seniors departing
- 10
- Awards points
- +9 returning · −6 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.61
Info flags:
roster_margin_split
Awards
Departing
Abby Karl (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Abby Eickhoff (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention); Ella Foresman (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention); Natalie Parra (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Riley Stiefer (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention)
Returning
Alexis Wright (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Lana Korte (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Tori Knowles (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Aaliyah Krzyanowski (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention); Campbell McCool (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Easton Bushong (all conference: Green; 2nd Team)
Departing players (2025-26)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abby Karl | — | 36 | 33.2% | 29.1% | 31.6% | 5.5% | 19.4% |
| Natalie Parra | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 48.1% | 14.1% |
| Abby Eickhoff | — | 17 | 15.5% | 11.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.3% |
| Ella Foresman | — | 0 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Ava Bucher | — | 4 | 3.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ava Wood | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Riley Stiefer | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stella Wolf | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2025-26)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abby Karl | offense | 15 | 51 | 33.2% | 35.6% | 8.2% | 0.0% / 8.2% | 15.7 |
| Natalie Parra | goalie | 15 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 55.7% | 55.0% / 0.7% | 13.7 |
| Alexis Wright | offense | 15 | 32 | 20.0% | 37.0% | 6.2% | 0.0% / 6.2% | 12.8 |
| Lana Korte | offense | 15 | 32 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 5.8% | 0.0% / 5.8% | 8.2 |
| Abby Eickhoff | offense | 15 | 25 | 15.5% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 0.0% / 2.7% | 4.2 |
| Ella Foresman | offense | 14 | 1 | 0.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 0.0% / 6.1% | 2.6 |
| Aaliyah Krzyanowski | offense | 12 | 7 | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.0% / 1.9% | 1.7 |
| Tori Knowles | offense | 14 | 2 | 0.7% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 0.0% / 4.1% | 1.6 |
| Ava Bucher | offense | 11 | 7 | 3.8% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 0.0% / 1.8% | 1.4 |
| Campbell McCool | defense | 13 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 2.6% | 0.0% / 2.6% | 0.7 |
| Easton Bushong | defense | 9 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 2.3% | 0.0% / 2.3% | 0.6 |
| Bri Clifton | offense | 3 | 2 | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.3 |
| Riley Stiefer | offense | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% / 1.0% | 0.2 |
| Ava Wood | defense | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% / 0.8% | 0.2 |
| Lilly O'Shea | offense | 2 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.1 |
| Stella Wolf | offense | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.1 |
| Victoria Hindle | offense | 1 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.1 |
| Lola Sanders | defense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.1 |
Projected matchups (2027)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Eureka | -10.6 | blowout |
| Wentzville | -10.2 | blowout |
| MICDS | -9.3 | — |
| Westminster | -7.6 | — |
| John Burroughs | -7.2 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -6.9 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -6.7 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -6.5 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -6.4 | — |
| Edwardsville | -5.2 | — |
| Oakville | -3.8 | — |
| Lafayette | -3.5 | — |
| Fox High School | -3.4 | — |
| O'Fallon | -3.0 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 2.7 | — |
| Northwest | -2.5 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | -2.4 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 2.3 | — |
| Parkway West | -2.1 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | -1.9 | — |
| St. Dominic | -1.9 | — |
| Webster Groves | -1.8 | — |
| Notre Dame | 1.5 | — |
| Francis Howell North | -1.5 | — |
| Kirkwood | -1.3 | — |
| Lindbergh | -1.3 | — |
| Marquette | -1.1 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | -0.9 | — |
| Pattonville | -0.8 | — |
| Clayton | 0.7 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | -0.7 | — |
| Francis Howell | -0.6 | — |
| Parkway North | 0.3 | — |
| Parkway Central | 0.2 | — |
| Belleville West | -0.1 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2027,
"team_name": "Parkway South",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 18,
"current_composite_rank": 24,
"recommended_rank": 19,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 1,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 40.51,
"score_drop": 38.3,
"returning_production_share": 0.379,
"departure_loss_pct": 38.3,
"legacy_prior": 0.614,
"seniors_count": 10,
"awards_points": 15,
"departing_awards_points": 6,
"returning_awards_points": 9,
"flag_codes": "roster_margin_split",
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": "roster_margin_split",
"flag_count": 1,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": "medium",
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Recommend rank 19 (prior finish 18). Flagged for board review: roster_margin_split. Suggested follow-up: margin_vs_roster_review.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 19,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": 19,
"actual_finish_rank": null,
"projection_error": null,
"is_backtest": false,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"Parkway South\", \"avg_margin\": \"2.93\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 19 (prior finish 18). Flagged for board review: roster_margin_split. Suggested follow-up: margin_vs_roster_review.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.404\", \"final_rank\": \"19\", \"flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split\", \"flag_count\": \"1\", \"margin_std\": \"8.42\", \"score_drop\": \"38.3\", \"top8_games\": \"1\", \"margin_wins\": \"11\", \"top16_games\": \"3\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.614\", \"margin_games\": \"15\", \"awards_points\": \"15\", \"margin_losses\": \"4\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"10\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"0-1\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split\", \"review_priority\": \"medium\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"45.0\", \"departing_awards\": \"Abby Karl (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Abby Eickhoff (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention); Ella Foresman (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention); Natalie Parra (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Riley Stiefer (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention)\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"38.0\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"19\", \"returning_awards\": \"Alexis Wright (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Lana Korte (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Tori Knowles (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Aaliyah Krzyanowski (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention); Campbell McCool (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Easton Bushong (all conference: Green; 2nd Team)\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.29\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"1\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"2.73\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"19\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"18\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"-11.0\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"38.3\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.575\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"-7.67\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"9.45\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"26.1\", \"projected_composite\": \"40.51\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"1\", \"composite_split_note\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.575\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"True\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"24\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.298\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"6\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-12.27\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"9\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"feeder_pair_offense;late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"61.72\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"19\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.481\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.379\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"30\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 30,
"projected_margin_rating": -12.27,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": -7.67,
"projected_turnover_index": 61.72,
"departing_awards": "Abby Karl (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Abby Eickhoff (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention); Ella Foresman (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention); Natalie Parra (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Riley Stiefer (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention)",
"returning_awards": "Alexis Wright (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Lana Korte (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Tori Knowles (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Aaliyah Krzyanowski (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention); Campbell McCool (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Easton Bushong (all conference: Green; 2nd Team)",
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "parkway-south",
"effective_rank": 19,
"final_rank_resolved": 19
}