Oakville
prior #32 · recommended #32 · final #32 legacy 0.11Margin strength
-1.3
vs top-16 avg 0.0
Projected margin
-5.5
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.400
as of 2025-05-30
Offense
49.59
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
67.58
domain stat
Possession
61.15
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #32
- Recommended (model)
- #33
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #32
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #13
- Projected margin rating
- -5.5
- Departure loss %
- 34.8%
- Returning production share
- 44.5%
- Departure loss
- 34.8%
- Seniors departing
- 12
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.11
Action-flagged
- · low_returning_heavy_loss
Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement
Info flags:
roster_margin_split
Secondary regression: returning_draw_control
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2024-25)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katie Lato | — | 11 | 20.9% | 16.9% | 27.6% | 6.8% | 15.9% |
| Melina Gredelj | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 33.6% | 10.4% |
| Kylie Garavaglia | — | 15 | 27.6% | 23.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 7.3% |
| Ally Christopher | — | 3 | 6.8% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% |
| Olivia Bresler | — | 2 | 4.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Colby Durham | — | 1 | 2.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maddy Paluczak | — | 0 | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2024-25)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katie Lato | offense | 13 | 22 | 20.9% | 31.5% | 9.4% | 0.0% / 9.4% | 11.3 |
| Melina Gredelj | goalie | 13 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 42.6% | 42.6% / 0.0% | 10.1 |
| Lillian King | offense | 13 | 6 | 6.4% | 24.2% | 4.0% | 0.0% / 4.0% | 6.2 |
| Hanna Essner | offense | 13 | 7 | 6.3% | 26.5% | 1.7% | 0.0% / 1.7% | 6.1 |
| Kylie Garavaglia | offense | 13 | 29 | 27.7% | 0.9% | 2.7% | 0.0% / 2.7% | 5.6 |
| Olivia Bresler | offense | 12 | 6 | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 0.0% / 3.5% | 2.2 |
| Addie Hebden | goalie | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% / 0.0% | 2.1 |
| Brooke Wilson | offense | 12 | 4 | 3.4% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.0% / 2.5% | 1.9 |
| Caroline Vangaasbeek | defense | 13 | 1 | 0.7% | 0.9% | 6.8% | 0.0% / 6.8% | 1.8 |
| Lily Stevens | offense | 11 | 6 | 4.6% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.0% / 1.8% | 1.6 |
| Ally Christopher | offense | 12 | 7 | 6.8% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% / 1.3% | 1.5 |
| Abby Hasty | offense | 10 | 7 | 6.7% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% / 1.3% | 1.5 |
| Amila Gusic | offense | 8 | 1 | 1.1% | 4.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 1.2 |
| Nora Brandt | offense | 8 | 5 | 5.2% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 1.1 |
| Elliotte Shilling | goalie | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% / 0.0% | 0.8 |
| Colby Durham | offense | 9 | 3 | 2.6% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 0.7 |
| Addison Sanders | utility | 5 | 1 | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 0.0% / 1.3% | 0.5 |
| Natalie Girard | defense | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.0% / 1.7% | 0.4 |
| Mia Rositano | offense | 3 | 2 | 1.9% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.4 |
| Alyssa Musiclak | defense | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 0.0% / 1.6% | 0.4 |
| Sydney Essner | offense | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 0.3 |
| Maddy Paluczak | offense | 3 | 1 | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.2 |
| Karly Koenig | defense | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% / 0.8% | 0.2 |
| Alexa Mann | offense | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.1 |
| Samantha StJohn | offense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Maddie Burton | defense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2026)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| John Burroughs | -7.8 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 7.6 | — |
| Belleville West | 6.4 | — |
| Notre Dame | 6.0 | — |
| Eureka | -5.9 | — |
| Parkway Central | -5.7 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 5.0 | — |
| MICDS | -4.7 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 3.6 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -3.6 | — |
| Northwest | 3.2 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -2.9 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 2.9 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 2.7 | — |
| Wentzville | 2.1 | — |
| Lindbergh | 2.0 | — |
| Francis Howell | 2.0 | — |
| Edwardsville | -1.8 | — |
| Clayton | -1.8 | — |
| O'Fallon | 1.6 | — |
| Parkway West | 1.6 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 1.5 | — |
| St. Dominic | 1.5 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 1.4 | — |
| Parkway South | 1.2 | — |
| Westminster | -1.0 | — |
| Fox High School | -0.9 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -0.9 | — |
| Webster Groves | 0.8 | — |
| Kirkwood | 0.5 | — |
| Lafayette | 0.3 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -0.1 | — |
| Marquette | 0.1 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2026,
"team_name": "Oakville",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 32,
"current_composite_rank": 9,
"recommended_rank": 33,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 1,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 37.38,
"score_drop": 34.8,
"returning_production_share": 0.445,
"departure_loss_pct": 34.8,
"legacy_prior": 0.107,
"seniors_count": 12,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": "roster_margin_split;low_returning_heavy_loss",
"action_flag_codes": "low_returning_heavy_loss",
"info_flag_codes": "roster_margin_split",
"flag_count": 2,
"action_flag_count": 1,
"needs_board_review": "yes",
"review_priority": "medium",
"regression_tracks": "underclass_surge_or_replacement",
"board_note": "Recommend rank 33 (prior finish 32). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement.",
"secondary_slot_delta": -1,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": "returning_draw_control",
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 32,
"adjusted_rank_delta": -1,
"league_order_rank": null,
"actual_finish_rank": 30,
"projection_error": 3.0,
"is_backtest": true,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2025_26_backtest\", \"team_name\": \"Oakville\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 33 (prior finish 32). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.562\", \"final_rank\": \"\", \"flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split;low_returning_heavy_loss\", \"flag_count\": \"2\", \"score_drop\": \"34.8\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.107\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"12\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split\", \"review_priority\": \"medium\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"45.0\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"38.0\", \"projection_error\": \"3\", \"recommended_rank\": \"33\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.296\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"low_returning_heavy_loss\", \"action_flag_count\": \"1\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"32\", \"regression_tracks\": \"underclass_surge_or_replacement\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"30\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"34.8\", \"needs_board_review\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.655\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"-1\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"21.4\", \"projected_composite\": \"37.38\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"1\", \"composite_split_note\": \"also\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.655\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"-1\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"True\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"9\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.219\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-5.49\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"feeder_pair_offense;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"65.21\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"32\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.333\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.445\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"returning_draw_control\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"13\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 13,
"projected_margin_rating": -5.49,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": null,
"projected_turnover_index": 65.21,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "oakville",
"effective_rank": 32,
"final_rank_resolved": 32
}