O'Fallon
prior #8 · recommended #9 · final #9 legacy 1.00Margin strength
-3.3
vs top-16 avg -3.3
Projected margin
-8.1
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.561
as of 2025-05-30
Offense
55.76
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
57.83
domain stat
Possession
69.38
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #8
- Recommended (model)
- #10
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #9
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #23
- Projected margin rating
- -8.1
- Departure loss %
- 40.2%
- Returning production share
- 25.9%
- Departure loss
- 40.2%
- Seniors departing
- 9
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 1.00
Action-flagged
- · low_returning_heavy_loss
Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement
Info flags:
roster_margin_split
Secondary regression: legacy_depth_floor
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2024-25)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gracie Favela | — | 56 | 55.9% | 51.8% | 35.2% | 6.0% | 24.5% |
| Octavia Bookman | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 46.8% | 12.3% |
| Cara Reilly | — | 8 | 8.1% | 4.0% | 8.4% | 0.0% | 3.3% |
| Ashtyn Feliciano | — | 4 | 4.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Elena Mercado | — | 3 | 3.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Avery Seaman | — | 1 | 1.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Belle Davis | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Williams | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lily Vorhees | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2024-25)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gracie Favela | offense | 12 | 60 | 55.9% | 39.1% | 8.7% | 0.0% / 8.7% | 20.5 |
| Octavia Bookman | goalie | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 55.7% | 54.6% / 1.2% | 11.3 |
| Savanah Spencer | offense | 12 | 17 | 12.8% | 30.3% | 6.2% | 0.0% / 6.2% | 9.8 |
| Cara Reilly | offense | 12 | 12 | 8.1% | 12.3% | 1.7% | 0.0% / 1.7% | 4.4 |
| Drew Buehler | offense | 12 | 6 | 1.9% | 7.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% / 11.8% | 4.3 |
| Ashtyn Feliciano | offense | 12 | 6 | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 0.0% / 2.5% | 1.9 |
| Abby Scott | offense | 8 | 7 | 4.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 1.5 |
| Isa Boyd | offense | 7 | 10 | 5.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 1.4 |
| Elena Henry | offense | 11 | 1 | 0.3% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 0.0% / 3.2% | 1.3 |
| Elena Mercado | offense | 9 | 6 | 3.3% | 0.2% | 2.9% | 0.0% / 2.9% | 1.3 |
| Jori Posey | offense | 5 | 2 | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% / 0.6% | 0.5 |
| Avery Seaman | offense | 4 | 2 | 1.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.4 |
| Maggie Lawler | offense | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 0.0% / 1.8% | 0.3 |
| Lily Vorhees | defense | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 0.0% / 1.6% | 0.3 |
| Addison Last | offense | 3 | 2 | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 0.2 |
| Caroline Williams | defense | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% / 0.7% | 0.1 |
| Sophia Perry | goalie | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% / 0.0% | 0.1 |
| Lily Crader | defense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.1 |
| Molly Maguire | defense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Belle Davis | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Addison Chor | offense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2026)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| John Burroughs | -9.4 | — |
| Eureka | -7.5 | — |
| Parkway Central | -7.3 | — |
| MICDS | -6.3 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 6.0 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -5.2 | — |
| Belleville West | 4.8 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -4.5 | — |
| Notre Dame | 4.4 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 3.4 | — |
| Edwardsville | -3.4 | — |
| Clayton | -3.4 | — |
| Westminster | -2.6 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -2.5 | — |
| Fox High School | -2.4 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 2.0 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -1.7 | — |
| Oakville | -1.6 | — |
| Northwest | 1.6 | — |
| Marquette | -1.5 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 1.3 | — |
| Lafayette | -1.2 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 1.1 | — |
| Kirkwood | -1.0 | — |
| Webster Groves | -0.8 | — |
| Wentzville | 0.5 | — |
| Lindbergh | 0.4 | — |
| Francis Howell | 0.4 | — |
| Parkway South | -0.4 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | -0.2 | — |
| St. Dominic | -0.1 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 0.0 | — |
| Parkway West | 0.0 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2026,
"team_name": "O'Fallon",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 8,
"current_composite_rank": 16,
"recommended_rank": 10,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 2,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 35.45,
"score_drop": 40.2,
"returning_production_share": 0.259,
"departure_loss_pct": 40.2,
"legacy_prior": 1.0,
"seniors_count": 9,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": "roster_margin_split;low_returning_heavy_loss",
"action_flag_codes": "low_returning_heavy_loss",
"info_flag_codes": "roster_margin_split",
"flag_count": 2,
"action_flag_count": 1,
"needs_board_review": "yes",
"review_priority": "medium",
"regression_tracks": "underclass_surge_or_replacement",
"board_note": "Recommend rank 10 (prior finish 8). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement.",
"secondary_slot_delta": -1,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": "legacy_depth_floor",
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 9,
"adjusted_rank_delta": -1,
"league_order_rank": null,
"actual_finish_rank": 8,
"projection_error": 2.0,
"is_backtest": true,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2025_26_backtest\", \"team_name\": \"O'Fallon\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 10 (prior finish 8). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.725\", \"final_rank\": \"\", \"flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split;low_returning_heavy_loss\", \"flag_count\": \"2\", \"score_drop\": \"40.2\", \"legacy_prior\": \"1.0\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"9\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split\", \"review_priority\": \"medium\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"45.0\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"38.0\", \"projection_error\": \"2\", \"recommended_rank\": \"10\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.389\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"low_returning_heavy_loss\", \"action_flag_count\": \"1\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"1\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"8\", \"regression_tracks\": \"underclass_surge_or_replacement\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"8\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"40.2\", \"needs_board_review\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.477\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"-1\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"39.1\", \"projected_composite\": \"35.45\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"2\", \"composite_split_note\": \"also\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.477\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"-1\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"True\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"16\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.137\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-8.11\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"feeder_pair_offense;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"59.84\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"9\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.373\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.259\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"legacy_depth_floor\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"23\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 23,
"projected_margin_rating": -8.11,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": null,
"projected_turnover_index": 59.84,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "o-fallon",
"effective_rank": 9,
"final_rank_resolved": 9
}