Notre Dame
prior #27 · recommended #27 · final #27 legacy 0.20Margin strength
-13.7
vs top-16 avg -13.7
Projected margin
-15.5
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.393
as of 2025-05-30
Offense
50.59
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
35.50
domain stat
Possession
36.15
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #27
- Recommended (model)
- #27
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #27
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #32
- Projected margin rating
- -15.5
- Departure loss %
- 15.3%
- Returning production share
- 60.4%
- Departure loss
- 15.3%
- Seniors departing
- 8
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.20
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2024-25)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gwen Keeven | — | 2 | 6.6% | 2.7% | 22.9% | 2.2% | 7.6% |
| Ashlyn Merzweiler | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 25.1% | 6.9% |
| Mattie Clifton | — | 2 | 4.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Jordan Crowley | — | 1 | 2.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Sam Koziacki | — | 0 | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Kate Orr | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maise Moebes | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2024-25)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bella Schellman | utility | 9 | 31 | 43.9% | 29.8% | 10.8% | 0.0% / 10.8% | 12.2 |
| Hannah Meissner | utility | 8 | 18 | 24.5% | 18.6% | 7.5% | 0.0% / 7.5% | 7.2 |
| Gwen Keeven | utility | 2 | 4 | 6.6% | 26.5% | 4.6% | 0.0% / 4.6% | 4.5 |
| Addysen Christian | utility | 7 | 7 | 7.1% | 20.0% | 3.7% | 0.0% / 3.7% | 3.8 |
| Ashlyn Merzweiler | utility | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 27.5% | 27.5% / 0.0% | 3.4 |
| Lily Winkelmann | utility | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 27.5% | 27.5% / 0.0% | 3.4 |
| Elizabeth Shaughnessy | utility | 5 | 4 | 3.7% | 5.1% | 1.2% | 0.0% / 1.2% | 1.4 |
| Mattie Clifton | utility | 7 | 5 | 4.8% | 0.0% | 3.5% | 0.0% / 3.5% | 1.3 |
| Holly Graves | utility | 7 | 3 | 3.2% | 0.0% | 3.4% | 0.0% / 3.4% | 1.0 |
| Jordan Crowley | utility | 5 | 2 | 2.3% | 0.0% | 3.1% | 0.0% / 3.1% | 0.8 |
| Macy Suellentrop | utility | 3 | 3 | 2.7% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% / 1.2% | 0.6 |
| Sam Koziacki | utility | 3 | 1 | 1.1% | 0.0% | 2.7% | 0.0% / 2.7% | 0.5 |
| Kate Orr | utility | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% / 1.3% | 0.2 |
| Teagan Lanemann | utility | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% / 1.3% | 0.2 |
| Tula Hoffman | utility | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.1 |
| Maise Moebes | utility | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.1 |
Projected matchups (2026)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| John Burroughs | -13.8 | blowout |
| Eureka | -11.9 | blowout |
| Parkway Central | -11.8 | blowout |
| MICDS | -10.7 | blowout |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -9.7 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -8.9 | — |
| Edwardsville | -7.8 | — |
| Clayton | -7.8 | — |
| Westminster | -7.0 | — |
| Fox High School | -6.9 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -6.9 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -6.1 | — |
| Oakville | -6.0 | — |
| Marquette | -5.9 | — |
| Lafayette | -5.7 | — |
| Kirkwood | -5.5 | — |
| Webster Groves | -5.2 | — |
| Parkway South | -4.8 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | -4.7 | — |
| St. Dominic | -4.5 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | -4.5 | — |
| Parkway West | -4.4 | — |
| O'Fallon | -4.4 | — |
| Lindbergh | -4.1 | — |
| Francis Howell | -4.0 | — |
| Wentzville | -3.9 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | -3.3 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | -3.1 | — |
| Northwest | -2.8 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | -2.5 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 1.6 | — |
| Francis Howell North | -1.0 | — |
| Belleville West | 0.4 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2026,
"team_name": "Notre Dame",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 27,
"current_composite_rank": 32,
"recommended_rank": 27,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 0,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 35.1,
"score_drop": 15.3,
"returning_production_share": 0.604,
"departure_loss_pct": 15.3,
"legacy_prior": 0.196,
"seniors_count": 8,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": null,
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 0,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": null,
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 27,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": null,
"actual_finish_rank": 31,
"projection_error": -4.0,
"is_backtest": true,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2025_26_backtest\", \"team_name\": \"Notre Dame\", \"board_note\": \"Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"\", \"flag_codes\": \"\", \"flag_count\": \"0\", \"score_drop\": \"15.3\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.196\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"8\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"29.1\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"2.7\", \"projection_error\": \"-4\", \"recommended_rank\": \"27\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.218\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"27\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"31\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"15.3\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.8\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"14.0\", \"projected_composite\": \"35.1\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.8\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"32\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.647\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-15.51\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"84.74\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"27\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.857\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.604\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"32\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 32,
"projected_margin_rating": -15.51,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": null,
"projected_turnover_index": 84.74,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "notre-dame",
"effective_rank": 27,
"final_rank_resolved": 27
}