Notre Dame
prior #31 · recommended #29 · final #29 legacy 0.20Margin strength
-12.6
vs top-16 avg -12.6
Projected margin
-14.7
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.409
as of 2026-05-30
Offense
41.95
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
58.77
domain stat
Possession
45.73
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #31
- Recommended (model)
- #29
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #29
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #34
- Projected margin rating
- -14.7
- Departure loss %
- 17.8%
- Returning production share
- 74.1%
- Departure loss
- 17.8%
- Seniors departing
- 3
- Awards points
- +3 returning · −2 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.20
Awards
Departing
Hannah Meissner (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Teagan Lanemann (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention)
Returning
Bella Schellman (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Jill Keeven (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention)
Departing players (2025-26)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannah Meissner | — | 13 | 27.7% | 23.5% | 30.2% | 5.0% | 14.7% |
| Teagan Lanemann | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 3.1% |
| Bennet Busby | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2025-26)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bella Schellman | offense | 10 | 41 | 42.1% | 23.1% | 7.8% | 0.0% / 7.8% | 11.0 |
| Hannah Meissner | offense | 12 | 24 | 27.7% | 34.2% | 7.6% | 0.0% / 7.6% | 10.3 |
| Isabelle Nadolny | defense | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 30.3% | 30.3% / 0.0% | 6.2 |
| Jill Keeven | offense | 12 | 12 | 12.0% | 18.4% | 6.5% | 0.0% / 6.5% | 5.6 |
| Lily Winkelmann | goalie | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 24.7% | 24.7% / 0.0% | 5.1 |
| Teagan Lanemann | defense | 13 | 1 | 0.8% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 0.0% / 8.0% | 3.0 |
| Elizabeth Shaughnessy | offense | 12 | 11 | 11.6% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.0% / 1.9% | 2.6 |
| Maria Hake | offense | 10 | 1 | 0.8% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 0.0% / 4.0% | 1.4 |
| Kelsey Cox | offense | 9 | 4 | 3.4% | 0.0% | 2.2% | 0.0% / 2.2% | 0.9 |
| Libby Carter | defense | 9 | 1 | 0.8% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.0% / 1.7% | 0.9 |
| Leah Blust | defense | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% / 0.8% | 0.4 |
| Addy Christian | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.3 |
| Sophie Eckert | offense | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% / 0.6% | 0.2 |
| Cecilia Shaughnessy | offense | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 0.2 |
| Olivia Sutton | defense | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% / 0.7% | 0.1 |
| Haley Rohlfing | defense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% / 0.6% | 0.1 |
| Gabriella Yost | defense | 3 | 1 | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.1 |
| Bennet Busby | defense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.1 |
| Amelia Carter | offense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.1 |
| Annie Bereitschaft | offense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.1 |
| Emma Schuck | defense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2027)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Eureka | -12.1 | blowout |
| Wentzville | -11.7 | blowout |
| MICDS | -10.8 | blowout |
| Westminster | -9.1 | — |
| John Burroughs | -8.7 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -8.4 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -8.1 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -7.9 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -7.8 | — |
| Edwardsville | -6.6 | — |
| Oakville | -5.3 | — |
| Lafayette | -5.0 | — |
| Fox High School | -4.9 | — |
| O'Fallon | -4.4 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | -3.9 | — |
| Northwest | -3.9 | — |
| Parkway West | -3.6 | — |
| St. Dominic | -3.4 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | -3.4 | — |
| Webster Groves | -3.3 | — |
| Francis Howell North | -3.0 | — |
| Lindbergh | -2.8 | — |
| Kirkwood | -2.8 | — |
| Marquette | -2.6 | — |
| Pattonville | -2.3 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | -2.3 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | -2.2 | — |
| Francis Howell | -2.1 | — |
| Belleville West | -1.5 | — |
| Parkway South | -1.5 | — |
| Parkway Central | -1.3 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 1.2 | — |
| Parkway North | -1.1 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 0.8 | — |
| Clayton | -0.8 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2027,
"team_name": "Notre Dame",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 31,
"current_composite_rank": 35,
"recommended_rank": 29,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": -2,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 40.78,
"score_drop": 17.8,
"returning_production_share": 0.741,
"departure_loss_pct": 17.8,
"legacy_prior": 0.196,
"seniors_count": 3,
"awards_points": 5,
"departing_awards_points": 2,
"returning_awards_points": 3,
"flag_codes": null,
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 0,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": null,
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 29,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": 29,
"actual_finish_rank": null,
"projection_error": null,
"is_backtest": false,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"Notre Dame\", \"avg_margin\": \"-4.86\", \"board_note\": \"Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"29\", \"flag_codes\": \"\", \"flag_count\": \"0\", \"margin_std\": \"10.26\", \"score_drop\": \"17.8\", \"top8_games\": \"3\", \"margin_wins\": \"5\", \"top16_games\": \"5\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.196\", \"margin_games\": \"14\", \"awards_points\": \"5\", \"margin_losses\": \"9\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"3\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"0-3\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"10.5\", \"departing_awards\": \"Hannah Meissner (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Teagan Lanemann (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention)\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"17.2\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"29\", \"returning_awards\": \"Bella Schellman (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Jill Keeven (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention)\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.302\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"-2\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"-3.36\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"29\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"31\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"-14.33\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"17.8\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.594\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"-12.6\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"3.36\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"25.5\", \"projected_composite\": \"40.78\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"-2\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.594\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"35\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.862\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"2\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-14.74\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"3\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"82.23\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"29\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.704\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.741\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"34\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 34,
"projected_margin_rating": -14.74,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": -12.6,
"projected_turnover_index": 82.23,
"departing_awards": "Hannah Meissner (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Teagan Lanemann (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention)",
"returning_awards": "Bella Schellman (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Jill Keeven (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention)",
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "notre-dame",
"effective_rank": 29,
"final_rank_resolved": 29
}