Northwest
prior #16 · recommended #16 · final #16 legacy 0.57Margin strength
-7.3
vs top-16 avg -7.3
Projected margin
-10.8
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.547
as of 2025-05-30
Offense
64.15
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
63.36
domain stat
Possession
58.68
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #16
- Recommended (model)
- #16
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #16
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #29
- Projected margin rating
- -10.8
- Departure loss %
- 28.7%
- Returning production share
- 51.4%
- Departure loss
- 28.7%
- Seniors departing
- 11
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.57
Info flags:
roster_margin_split
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2024-25)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raegan Shelton | — | 56 | 37.1% | 33.0% | 26.6% | 3.6% | 16.3% |
| Lyla Lehnhoff | — | 4 | 3.1% | 0.0% | 26.3% | 2.1% | 7.3% |
| Faith Johnson | — | 31 | 20.4% | 16.3% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 5.0% |
| Daisy Nuslen | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Hoffman | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lily Emery | — | 1 | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Harrleson | — | 1 | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Savannah McCabe | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Yuridia Colin Fajardo | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2024-25)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raegan Shelton | offense | 13 | 62 | 37.1% | 30.6% | 6.3% | 0.0% / 6.3% | 14.9 |
| Liliana Corntazer | goalie | 14 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% / 0.0% | 12.2 |
| Maddi Hogan | offense | 14 | 41 | 24.4% | 0.7% | 6.6% | 0.0% / 6.6% | 7.0 |
| Lyla Lehnhoff | offense | 14 | 6 | 3.1% | 30.2% | 4.8% | 0.0% / 4.8% | 6.9 |
| Sadie Clabaugh | offense | 11 | 14 | 8.8% | 24.9% | 2.6% | 0.0% / 2.6% | 6.8 |
| Faith Johnson | offense | 14 | 35 | 20.4% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 0.0% / 3.3% | 6.4 |
| Breezy Cardwell | offense | 14 | 5 | 3.3% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 0.0% / 3.5% | 2.5 |
| Halle Vance | defense | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.9% | 0.0% / 3.9% | 0.9 |
| Olivia Harrleson | offense | 11 | 2 | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 0.0% / 1.8% | 0.7 |
| Lily Emery | offense | 11 | 2 | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 0.0% / 1.6% | 0.7 |
| Yuridia Colin Fajardo | defense | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.5% | 0.0% / 2.5% | 0.6 |
| Allison Long | offense | 5 | 2 | 1.2% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% / 1.1% | 0.5 |
| Daisy Nuslen | defense | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.3% | 0.0% / 2.3% | 0.5 |
| Emily Hoffman | defense | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.0% / 1.7% | 0.4 |
| Maggie Baumann | defense | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% / 1.3% | 0.3 |
| Isla Wingenbach | defense | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% / 0.8% | 0.2 |
| Jersey Greer | defense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.1 |
| Arabella DeLuca | offense | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.1 |
| Savannah McCabe | offense | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.0 |
| Addison Murphy | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Justice Greer | defense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Amalia Phye | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2026)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| John Burroughs | -11.0 | blowout |
| Eureka | -9.1 | — |
| Parkway Central | -8.9 | — |
| MICDS | -7.9 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -6.8 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -6.0 | — |
| Edwardsville | -5.0 | — |
| Clayton | -5.0 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 4.4 | — |
| Westminster | -4.2 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -4.1 | — |
| Fox High School | -4.0 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -3.3 | — |
| Belleville West | 3.2 | — |
| Oakville | -3.2 | — |
| Marquette | -3.1 | — |
| Lafayette | -2.8 | — |
| Notre Dame | 2.8 | — |
| Kirkwood | -2.6 | — |
| Webster Groves | -2.4 | — |
| Parkway South | -2.0 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | -1.8 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 1.8 | — |
| St. Dominic | -1.7 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | -1.6 | — |
| O'Fallon | -1.6 | — |
| Parkway West | -1.6 | — |
| Francis Howell | -1.2 | — |
| Lindbergh | -1.2 | — |
| Wentzville | -1.1 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | -0.5 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 0.4 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | -0.3 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2026,
"team_name": "Northwest",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 16,
"current_composite_rank": 27,
"recommended_rank": 16,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 0,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 44.48,
"score_drop": 28.7,
"returning_production_share": 0.514,
"departure_loss_pct": 28.7,
"legacy_prior": 0.57,
"seniors_count": 11,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": "roster_margin_split",
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": "roster_margin_split",
"flag_count": 1,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": "medium",
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Recommend rank 16 (prior finish 16). Flagged for board review: roster_margin_split. Suggested follow-up: margin_vs_roster_review.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 16,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": null,
"actual_finish_rank": 12,
"projection_error": 4.0,
"is_backtest": true,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2025_26_backtest\", \"team_name\": \"Northwest\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 16 (prior finish 16). Flagged for board review: roster_margin_split. Suggested follow-up: margin_vs_roster_review.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.087\", \"final_rank\": \"\", \"flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split\", \"flag_count\": \"1\", \"score_drop\": \"28.7\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.57\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"11\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split\", \"review_priority\": \"medium\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"6.4\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"38.0\", \"projection_error\": \"4\", \"recommended_rank\": \"16\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.272\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"16\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"12\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"28.7\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.309\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"42.0\", \"projected_composite\": \"44.48\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"composite_split_note\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.309\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"True\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"27\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.457\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-10.77\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"feeder_pair_offense;late_underclass_surge_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"71.27\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"16\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.387\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.514\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"29\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 29,
"projected_margin_rating": -10.77,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": null,
"projected_turnover_index": 71.27,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "northwest",
"effective_rank": 16,
"final_rank_resolved": 16
}