Northwest
prior #12 · recommended #12 · final #12 legacy 0.57Margin strength
-3.8
vs top-16 avg -3.8
Projected margin
-8.2
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.557
as of 2026-05-30
Offense
58.63
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
64.62
domain stat
Possession
60.22
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #12
- Recommended (model)
- #12
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #12
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #15
- Projected margin rating
- -8.2
- Departure loss %
- 36.1%
- Returning production share
- 38.2%
- Departure loss
- 36.1%
- Seniors departing
- 11
- Awards points
- +3 returning · −11 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.57
Action-flagged
- · award_talent_loss
Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review
Awards
Departing
Halle Vance (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Liliana Cornatzer (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Maddi Hogan (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Arabella DeLuca (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention); Breezy Cardwell (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Isla Wingenbach (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Maggie Baumann (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Sadie Clabaugh (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention)
Returning
Allison Long (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Addison Murphy (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention)
Departing players (2025-26)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maddi Hogan | — | 43 | 40.4% | 36.2% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 15.4% |
| Liliana Cornatzer | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 43.8% | 14.0% |
| Sadie Clabaugh | — | 6 | 6.0% | 1.9% | 7.8% | 0.0% | 3.1% |
| Halle Vance | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.4% | 1.4% |
| Arabella DeLuca | — | 3 | 3.1% | 0.0% | 3.9% | 0.0% | 1.2% |
| Breezy Cardwell | — | 5 | 4.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Maggie Baumann | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Isla Wingenbach | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Amalia Phye | — | 4 | 4.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Alivia Barr | — | 3 | 3.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Braylin Danner | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2025-26)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allison Long | offense | 13 | 27 | 20.8% | 57.9% | 5.6% | 0.0% / 5.6% | 16.0 |
| Maddi Hogan | offense | 13 | 51 | 40.4% | 13.2% | 5.3% | 0.0% / 5.3% | 11.9 |
| Liliana Cornatzer | goalie | 13 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 51.4% | 51.4% / 0.0% | 11.6 |
| Sadie Clabaugh | offense | 8 | 7 | 6.0% | 11.8% | 1.8% | 0.0% / 1.8% | 3.8 |
| Addison Murphy | offense | 13 | 15 | 11.9% | 0.0% | 3.8% | 0.0% / 3.8% | 3.3 |
| Arabella DeLuca | offense | 12 | 5 | 3.1% | 7.9% | 1.8% | 0.0% / 1.8% | 2.5 |
| Breezy Cardwell | offense | 13 | 7 | 4.7% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 0.0% / 3.6% | 2.1 |
| Halle Vance | defense | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.9% | 0.0% / 6.9% | 1.6 |
| Amalia Phye | offense | 10 | 6 | 4.6% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% / 1.1% | 1.2 |
| Alivia Barr | offense | 9 | 4 | 3.6% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% / 1.1% | 1.0 |
| Melanya Lehnhoff | offense | 6 | 2 | 1.7% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% / 0.7% | 0.9 |
| Chloe Crook | offense | 6 | 1 | 1.0% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% / 0.6% | 0.9 |
| Ruby Jacobs | goalie | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% / 0.0% | 0.8 |
| Maggie Baumann | defense | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.1% | 0.0% / 3.1% | 0.7 |
| Isla Wingenbach | defense | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% / 3.0% | 0.7 |
| Jersey Greer | defense | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 0.0% / 1.9% | 0.4 |
| Reese Bundy | offense | 5 | 2 | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% / 0.6% | 0.4 |
| Ella McCabe | offense | 7 | 1 | 0.8% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% / 1.1% | 0.4 |
| Liberty Crull | offense | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% / 0.6% | 0.4 |
| Kateri Brown | offense | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% / 0.8% | 0.3 |
| Braylin Danner | defense | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% / 0.7% | 0.2 |
| Justice Greer | defense | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 0.1 |
| Emma Glassner | offense | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.1 |
| Sophie Zucheck | defense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2027)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Eureka | -8.2 | — |
| Wentzville | -7.7 | — |
| MICDS | -6.8 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 5.2 | — |
| Westminster | -5.2 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 4.7 | — |
| John Burroughs | -4.7 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -4.5 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -4.2 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -4.0 | — |
| Notre Dame | 3.9 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -3.9 | — |
| Clayton | 3.2 | — |
| Parkway North | 2.8 | — |
| Edwardsville | -2.7 | — |
| Parkway Central | 2.6 | — |
| Parkway South | 2.5 | — |
| Belleville West | 2.4 | — |
| Francis Howell | 1.9 | — |
| Pattonville | 1.7 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 1.7 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 1.6 | — |
| Marquette | 1.4 | — |
| Oakville | -1.3 | — |
| Lindbergh | 1.1 | — |
| Kirkwood | 1.1 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 1.0 | — |
| Lafayette | -1.0 | — |
| Fox High School | -0.9 | — |
| Webster Groves | 0.6 | — |
| O'Fallon | -0.5 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 0.5 | — |
| St. Dominic | 0.5 | — |
| Parkway West | 0.4 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 0.0 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2027,
"team_name": "Northwest",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 12,
"current_composite_rank": 13,
"recommended_rank": 12,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 0,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 40.23,
"score_drop": 36.1,
"returning_production_share": 0.382,
"departure_loss_pct": 36.1,
"legacy_prior": 0.57,
"seniors_count": 11,
"awards_points": 14,
"departing_awards_points": 11,
"returning_awards_points": 3,
"flag_codes": "award_talent_loss",
"action_flag_codes": "award_talent_loss",
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 1,
"action_flag_count": 1,
"needs_board_review": "yes",
"review_priority": "medium",
"regression_tracks": "award_talent_review",
"board_note": "Recommend rank 12 (prior finish 12). Flagged for board review: award_talent_loss. Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 12,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": 12,
"actual_finish_rank": null,
"projection_error": null,
"is_backtest": false,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"Northwest\", \"avg_margin\": \"0.87\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 12 (prior finish 12). Flagged for board review: award_talent_loss. Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"12\", \"flag_codes\": \"award_talent_loss\", \"flag_count\": \"1\", \"margin_std\": \"7.41\", \"score_drop\": \"36.1\", \"top8_games\": \"2\", \"margin_wins\": \"11\", \"top16_games\": \"6\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.57\", \"margin_games\": \"15\", \"awards_points\": \"14\", \"margin_losses\": \"4\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"11\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"0-2\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"medium\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"45.0\", \"departing_awards\": \"Halle Vance (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Liliana Cornatzer (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Maddi Hogan (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Arabella DeLuca (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention); Breezy Cardwell (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Isla Wingenbach (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Maggie Baumann (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Sadie Clabaugh (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention)\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"38.0\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"12\", \"returning_awards\": \"Allison Long (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Addison Murphy (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention)\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.195\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"award_talent_loss\", \"action_flag_count\": \"1\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"1.33\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"12\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"12\", \"regression_tracks\": \"award_talent_review\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"-13.5\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"36.1\", \"needs_board_review\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.647\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"-3.83\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"9.45\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"16.6\", \"projected_composite\": \"40.23\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.647\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"True\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"13\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.56\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"11\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-8.16\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"3\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"feeder_pair_offense;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"63.9\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"12\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.361\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.382\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"15\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 15,
"projected_margin_rating": -8.16,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": -3.83,
"projected_turnover_index": 63.9,
"departing_awards": "Halle Vance (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Liliana Cornatzer (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Maddi Hogan (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Arabella DeLuca (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention); Breezy Cardwell (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Isla Wingenbach (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Maggie Baumann (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Sadie Clabaugh (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention)",
"returning_awards": "Allison Long (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Addison Murphy (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention)",
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "northwest",
"effective_rank": 12,
"final_rank_resolved": 12
}