Nerinx Hall
prior #18 · recommended #19 · final #19 legacy 0.93Margin strength
-8.0
vs top-16 avg -8.0
Projected margin
-10.3
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.491
as of 2025-05-30
Offense
67.17
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
57.41
domain stat
Possession
62.72
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #18
- Recommended (model)
- #18
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #19
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #28
- Projected margin rating
- -10.3
- Departure loss %
- 19.4%
- Returning production share
- 57.6%
- Departure loss
- 19.4%
- Seniors departing
- 11
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.93
Info flags:
roster_margin_split
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2024-25)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrett Fust | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 50.1% | 13.2% |
| Madeline Smyka | — | 13 | 9.1% | 5.3% | 12.4% | 1.6% | 5.1% |
| Abby Schaller | — | 11 | 7.8% | 4.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.1% |
| Katherine Schuermann | — | 1 | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Emma Massimino | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hadley Leinauer | — | 1 | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kaitlin Millar | — | 2 | 1.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maira McKeon | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nora Hugo | — | 4 | 3.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Anderson | — | 1 | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Lindo | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2024-25)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gretchen Patterson | utility | 13 | 68 | 44.0% | 49.7% | 10.4% | 0.0% / 10.4% | 21.5 |
| Barrett Fust | utility | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 52.5% | 52.5% / 0.0% | 10.6 |
| Kenley Heinen | utility | 12 | 31 | 17.2% | 17.1% | 4.4% | 0.0% / 4.4% | 8.0 |
| Madeline Smyka | utility | 13 | 15 | 9.1% | 16.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% / 4.0% | 5.9 |
| Chloe Schmid | utility | 10 | 8 | 4.5% | 8.9% | 2.0% | 0.0% / 2.0% | 3.1 |
| Abby Schaller | utility | 13 | 13 | 7.8% | 0.0% | 2.4% | 0.0% / 2.4% | 2.3 |
| Quinn McNelly | utility | 10 | 10 | 5.7% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.0% / 1.6% | 2.1 |
| Lucia Heisig | utility | 10 | 3 | 1.5% | 1.4% | 4.0% | 0.0% / 4.0% | 1.4 |
| Nora Hugo | utility | 11 | 6 | 3.1% | 0.4% | 2.1% | 0.0% / 2.1% | 1.2 |
| Katherine Schuermann | utility | 13 | 2 | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 0.0% / 2.7% | 1.2 |
| Kaitlin Millar | utility | 6 | 3 | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.0% / 1.1% | 1.0 |
| Hadley Leinauer | utility | 6 | 2 | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% / 0.8% | 0.6 |
| Maira McKeon | utility | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.5% | 0.0% / 2.5% | 0.5 |
| Olivia Bruns | utility | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% / 0.0% | 0.5 |
| Sophia Lindo | utility | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.1% | 0.0% / 2.1% | 0.4 |
| Clara Reimer | utility | 5 | 3 | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.4 |
| Sarah Anderson | utility | 6 | 2 | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% / 0.8% | 0.3 |
| Audrey Molner | utility | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% / 1.5% | 0.3 |
| Emma Massimino | utility | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 0.2 |
| Delaney O’Connell | utility | 4 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.2 |
| Harper Jansky | utility | 3 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.2 |
| Alyssa Miller | utility | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.1 |
| Addison Lee | utility | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2026)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| John Burroughs | -10.7 | blowout |
| Eureka | -8.8 | — |
| Parkway Central | -8.6 | — |
| MICDS | -7.6 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -6.6 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -5.8 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 4.7 | — |
| Edwardsville | -4.7 | — |
| Clayton | -4.7 | — |
| Westminster | -3.9 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -3.8 | — |
| Fox High School | -3.8 | — |
| Belleville West | 3.5 | — |
| Notre Dame | 3.1 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -3.0 | — |
| Oakville | -2.9 | — |
| Marquette | -2.8 | — |
| Lafayette | -2.6 | — |
| Kirkwood | -2.4 | — |
| Webster Groves | -2.1 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 2.1 | — |
| Parkway South | -1.7 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | -1.5 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | -1.4 | — |
| St. Dominic | -1.4 | — |
| Parkway West | -1.3 | — |
| O'Fallon | -1.3 | — |
| Lindbergh | -0.9 | — |
| Francis Howell | -0.9 | — |
| Wentzville | -0.8 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 0.6 | — |
| Northwest | 0.3 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | -0.2 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2026,
"team_name": "Nerinx Hall",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 18,
"current_composite_rank": 29,
"recommended_rank": 18,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 0,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 49.79,
"score_drop": 19.4,
"returning_production_share": 0.576,
"departure_loss_pct": 19.4,
"legacy_prior": 0.927,
"seniors_count": 11,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": "roster_margin_split",
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": "roster_margin_split",
"flag_count": 1,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": "medium",
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Recommend rank 18 (prior finish 18). Flagged for board review: roster_margin_split. Suggested follow-up: margin_vs_roster_review.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 19,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 1,
"league_order_rank": null,
"actual_finish_rank": 22,
"projection_error": -4.0,
"is_backtest": true,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2025_26_backtest\", \"team_name\": \"Nerinx Hall\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 18 (prior finish 18). Flagged for board review: roster_margin_split. Suggested follow-up: margin_vs_roster_review.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"\", \"flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split\", \"flag_count\": \"1\", \"score_drop\": \"19.4\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.927\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"11\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split\", \"review_priority\": \"medium\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"45.0\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"6.8\", \"projection_error\": \"-4\", \"recommended_rank\": \"18\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.393\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"1\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"18\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"22\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"19.4\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.796\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"1\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"7.7\", \"projected_composite\": \"49.79\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"composite_split_note\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.796\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"29\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.712\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-10.33\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"80.62\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"19\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.68\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.576\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"28\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 28,
"projected_margin_rating": -10.33,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": null,
"projected_turnover_index": 80.62,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "nerinx-hall",
"effective_rank": 19,
"final_rank_resolved": 19
}