MICDS
prior #2 · recommended #2 · final #2 legacy 1.00Margin strength
5.3
vs top-16 avg 5.3
Projected margin
2.4
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.624
as of 2025-05-30
Offense
77.48
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
70.21
domain stat
Possession
82.37
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #2
- Recommended (model)
- #2
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #2
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #4
- Projected margin rating
- 2.4
- Departure loss %
- 24.0%
- Returning production share
- 54.6%
- Departure loss
- 24.0%
- Seniors departing
- 8
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 1.00
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2024-25)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia Huddleston | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 41.0% | 11.9% |
| Hattie Sloane | — | 28 | 11.7% | 7.6% | 14.2% | 0.6% | 6.5% |
| Caroline Koman | — | 48 | 20.2% | 16.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.7% |
| Brooke Bernstein | — | 16 | 6.8% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% |
| Lucia Stoynoff | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Melina Finnegan | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Taaj Saddler | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2024-25)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josie Ciaramita | offense | 16 | 53 | 22.7% | 41.3% | 7.7% | 0.0% / 7.7% | 18.1 |
| Amelia Mackin | offense | 16 | 47 | 21.0% | 26.0% | 6.2% | 0.0% / 6.2% | 13.6 |
| Sophia Huddleston | goalie | 14 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% / 1.2% | 12.3 |
| Hattie Sloane | offense | 16 | 27 | 11.7% | 18.1% | 3.3% | 0.0% / 3.3% | 8.4 |
| Caroline Koman | offense | 16 | 47 | 20.2% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 0.0% / 2.0% | 6.0 |
| Katherine Schott | offense | 14 | 17 | 8.2% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 0.0% / 3.5% | 4.6 |
| Victoria Noble | offense | 12 | 12 | 6.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 0.0% / 3.8% | 3.6 |
| Brooke Bernstein | offense | 15 | 16 | 6.8% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 0.0% / 1.8% | 2.4 |
| Tara Sadasivam | goalie | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% / 0.0% | 1.5 |
| Georgia Lochhead | defense | 14 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.7% | 4.1% | 0.0% / 4.1% | 1.4 |
| Katie Sheehan | defense | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.5% | 3.2% | 0.0% / 3.2% | 0.9 |
| Lucia Stoynoff | defense | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.8% | 0.0% / 2.8% | 0.7 |
| Luisa Parietti | offense | 10 | 4 | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.0% / 1.2% | 0.7 |
| Melina Finnegan | defense | 9 | 1 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 2.1% | 0.0% / 2.1% | 0.6 |
| Mia Brauer | utility | 4 | 3 | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.6 |
| Claire Hofer | offense | 4 | 1 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.1 |
| Emma Allen | offense | 3 | 1 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.1 |
| Mabel Dando | offense | 2 | 1 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.1 |
| Taaj Saddler | defense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.1 |
| Lilah Pronger | defense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.1 |
| Sadie Small | offense | 1 | 1 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Lydia Brown | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.0 |
| Claire Kaiser | defense | 1 | 1 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2026)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Word | 12.3 | blowout |
| Belleville West | 11.1 | blowout |
| Notre Dame | 10.7 | blowout |
| Francis Howell North | 9.7 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 8.3 | — |
| Northwest | 7.9 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 7.6 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 7.4 | — |
| Wentzville | 6.8 | — |
| Lindbergh | 6.7 | — |
| Francis Howell | 6.7 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 6.3 | — |
| O'Fallon | 6.3 | — |
| Parkway West | 6.3 | — |
| St. Dominic | 6.2 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 6.1 | — |
| Parkway South | 5.9 | — |
| Webster Groves | 5.5 | — |
| Kirkwood | 5.3 | — |
| Lafayette | 5.1 | — |
| Marquette | 4.8 | — |
| Oakville | 4.7 | — |
| Visitation Academy | 4.6 | — |
| Fox High School | 3.9 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | 3.8 | — |
| Westminster | 3.7 | — |
| John Burroughs | -3.1 | — |
| Clayton | 2.9 | — |
| Edwardsville | 2.9 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | 1.9 | — |
| Eureka | -1.2 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | 1.1 | — |
| Parkway Central | -1.0 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2026,
"team_name": "MICDS",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 2,
"current_composite_rank": 4,
"recommended_rank": 2,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 0,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 57.49,
"score_drop": 24.0,
"returning_production_share": 0.546,
"departure_loss_pct": 24.0,
"legacy_prior": 1.0,
"seniors_count": 8,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": null,
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 0,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": null,
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 2,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": null,
"actual_finish_rank": 5,
"projection_error": -3.0,
"is_backtest": true,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2025_26_backtest\", \"team_name\": \"MICDS\", \"board_note\": \"Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.219\", \"final_rank\": \"\", \"flag_codes\": \"\", \"flag_count\": \"0\", \"score_drop\": \"24.0\", \"legacy_prior\": \"1.0\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"8\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"45.0\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"19.7\", \"projection_error\": \"-3\", \"recommended_rank\": \"2\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.453\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"2\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"5\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"24.0\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.82\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"8.8\", \"projected_composite\": \"57.49\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.82\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"4\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.39\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"2.39\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"76.05\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"2\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.657\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.546\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"4\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 4,
"projected_margin_rating": 2.39,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": null,
"projected_turnover_index": 76.05,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "micds",
"effective_rank": 2,
"final_rank_resolved": 2
}