Marquette
prior #9 · recommended #10 · final #10 legacy 0.91Margin strength
-1.9
vs top-16 avg -1.9
Projected margin
-5.6
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.562
as of 2025-05-30
Offense
55.83
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
60.07
domain stat
Possession
70.04
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #9
- Recommended (model)
- #9
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #10
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #14
- Projected margin rating
- -5.6
- Departure loss %
- 30.8%
- Returning production share
- 51.3%
- Departure loss
- 30.8%
- Seniors departing
- 7
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.91
Action-flagged
- · backtest_large_error
Suggested follow-up: post_hoc_regression_candidate
Secondary regression: backtest_error_shrink
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2024-25)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marin Lally | — | 61 | 47.3% | 43.2% | 51.5% | 10.3% | 26.7% |
| Sophie DeKraker | — | 20 | 15.8% | 11.7% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 3.2% |
| Izzy Homfray | — | 6 | 5.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Ivanka Lopes | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Carly Stremlau | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Laura Navarro | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paige Valchar | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2024-25)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marin Lally | offense | 12 | 57 | 47.3% | 55.5% | 13.0% | 0.0% / 13.0% | 23.3 |
| Brynn Clark | goalie | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% / 0.0% | 11.6 |
| Isabella Bloyd | offense | 11 | 7 | 5.6% | 18.1% | 2.2% | 0.0% / 2.2% | 5.2 |
| Sophie DeKraker | offense | 12 | 20 | 15.8% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 0.0% / 3.5% | 4.2 |
| Phoebe Yoder | offense | 12 | 16 | 13.6% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% / 4.0% | 3.9 |
| Sydney Kronauge | offense | 3 | 6 | 6.0% | 8.4% | 1.5% | 0.0% / 1.5% | 3.2 |
| Izzy Homfray | offense | 12 | 6 | 5.0% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 0.0% / 5.2% | 2.7 |
| Rebecca Bergman | offense | 10 | 7 | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 0.0% / 3.0% | 2.6 |
| Addy Jacobs | defense | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 0.0% / 4.4% | 1.8 |
| Abby Welch | offense | 7 | 1 | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 0.7 |
| Karina Lay | offense | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.0% / 1.3% | 0.6 |
| Ivanka Lopes | defense | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.6% | 0.0% / 2.6% | 0.5 |
| Carly Stremlau | defense | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% / 1.5% | 0.3 |
| Laura Navarro | offense | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% / 1.2% | 0.2 |
| Elle Meltabarger | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.1 |
| Rebekah Conley | defense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.0 |
| Paige Valchar | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Ana Singh | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Thea Shepherd | defense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2026)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| John Burroughs | -7.9 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 7.5 | — |
| Belleville West | 6.3 | — |
| Eureka | -6.0 | — |
| Notre Dame | 5.9 | — |
| Parkway Central | -5.8 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 4.9 | — |
| MICDS | -4.8 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -3.7 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 3.5 | — |
| Northwest | 3.1 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -2.9 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 2.8 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 2.6 | — |
| Wentzville | 2.0 | — |
| Lindbergh | 1.9 | — |
| Clayton | -1.9 | — |
| Francis Howell | 1.9 | — |
| Edwardsville | -1.9 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 1.5 | — |
| O'Fallon | 1.5 | — |
| Parkway West | 1.5 | — |
| St. Dominic | 1.4 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 1.3 | — |
| Westminster | -1.1 | — |
| Parkway South | 1.1 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -1.0 | — |
| Fox High School | -0.9 | — |
| Webster Groves | 0.7 | — |
| Kirkwood | 0.5 | — |
| Lafayette | 0.3 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -0.2 | — |
| Oakville | -0.1 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2026,
"team_name": "Marquette",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 9,
"current_composite_rank": 12,
"recommended_rank": 9,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 0,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 42.06,
"score_drop": 30.8,
"returning_production_share": 0.513,
"departure_loss_pct": 30.8,
"legacy_prior": 0.91,
"seniors_count": 7,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": "backtest_large_error",
"action_flag_codes": "backtest_large_error",
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 1,
"action_flag_count": 1,
"needs_board_review": "yes",
"review_priority": "high",
"regression_tracks": "post_hoc_regression_candidate",
"board_note": "Recommend rank 9 (prior finish 9). Flagged for board review: backtest_large_error. Suggested follow-up: post_hoc_regression_candidate.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 1,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": "backtest_error_shrink",
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 10,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 1,
"league_order_rank": null,
"actual_finish_rank": 14,
"projection_error": -5.0,
"is_backtest": true,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2025_26_backtest\", \"team_name\": \"Marquette\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 9 (prior finish 9). Flagged for board review: backtest_large_error. Suggested follow-up: post_hoc_regression_candidate.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.25\", \"final_rank\": \"\", \"flag_codes\": \"backtest_large_error\", \"flag_count\": \"1\", \"score_drop\": \"30.8\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.91\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"7\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"high\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"13.8\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"38.0\", \"projection_error\": \"-5\", \"recommended_rank\": \"9\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.133\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"backtest_large_error\", \"action_flag_count\": \"1\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"1\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"9\", \"regression_tracks\": \"post_hoc_regression_candidate\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"14\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"30.8\", \"needs_board_review\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.401\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"1\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"42.0\", \"projected_composite\": \"42.06\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.401\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"1\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"True\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"12\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.375\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-5.61\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"feeder_pair_offense\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"69.2\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"10\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.292\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.513\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"backtest_error_shrink\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"14\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 14,
"projected_margin_rating": -5.61,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": null,
"projected_turnover_index": 69.2,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "marquette",
"effective_rank": 10,
"final_rank_resolved": 10
}