Lindbergh
prior #24 · recommended #26 · final #26 legacy 0.33Margin strength
-4.6
vs top-16 avg -4.6
Projected margin
-8.8
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.474
as of 2025-05-30
Offense
57.16
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
60.99
domain stat
Possession
56.29
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #24
- Recommended (model)
- #26
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #26
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #24
- Projected margin rating
- -8.8
- Departure loss %
- 34.6%
- Returning production share
- 37.4%
- Departure loss
- 34.6%
- Seniors departing
- 9
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.33
Action-flagged
- · low_returning_heavy_loss
- · backtest_large_error
Suggested follow-up: post_hoc_regression_candidate;underclass_surge_or_replacement
Secondary regression: backtest_error_shrink
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2024-25)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lydia Krob | — | 29 | 30.3% | 26.2% | 13.1% | 6.4% | 12.7% |
| Rosie Grebe | — | 6 | 6.7% | 2.6% | 28.0% | 1.7% | 8.9% |
| Cosima Smith | — | 17 | 17.8% | 13.7% | 10.1% | 0.4% | 6.7% |
| Darby Sindel | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 15.3% | 4.2% |
| Sydney Lucas | — | 11 | 11.5% | 7.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% |
| Belle Daniels | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katie Polovina | — | 0 | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marissa Alonzo | — | 3 | 3.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2024-25)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lydia Krob | offense | 14 | 44 | 30.3% | 17.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% / 9.1% | 10.7 |
| Rosie Grebe | offense | 14 | 10 | 6.7% | 32.0% | 4.3% | 0.0% / 4.3% | 7.4 |
| Sierra Dolezal | goalie | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 30.7% | 30.7% / 0.0% | 6.6 |
| Cosima Smith | offense | 14 | 24 | 17.8% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 0.0% / 3.0% | 6.5 |
| Darby Sindel | goalie | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 24.3% | 24.3% / 0.0% | 5.2 |
| Lexie Peterson | offense | 12 | 9 | 6.2% | 19.7% | 2.2% | 0.0% / 2.2% | 4.8 |
| Addie Rohrbach | offense | 14 | 18 | 13.4% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 0.0% / 2.5% | 3.8 |
| Sydney Lucas | offense | 14 | 18 | 11.5% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 0.0% / 2.1% | 3.0 |
| Piper Wilmot | offense | 11 | 7 | 4.1% | 5.9% | 1.2% | 0.0% / 1.2% | 2.0 |
| Elaina Meyer | offense | 13 | 2 | 1.4% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 0.0% / 2.4% | 1.6 |
| Charlie Phillips | defense | 12 | 1 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 5.4% | 0.0% / 5.4% | 1.1 |
| Mariah Jackson | defense | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.2% | 0.0% / 5.2% | 1.1 |
| Finnley Placke | offense | 4 | 3 | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 0.9 |
| Marissa Alonzo | offense | 7 | 5 | 3.7% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.8 |
| Izzy Yarbrough | defense | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.4% | 0.0% / 2.4% | 0.5 |
| Belle Daniels | defense | 12 | 1 | 0.6% | 0.0% | 2.3% | 0.0% / 2.3% | 0.5 |
| Mila LaMar | defense | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% / 1.2% | 0.3 |
| Katie Polovina | offense | 6 | 2 | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.2 |
| Olivia Lange | defense | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 0.1 |
Projected matchups (2026)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| John Burroughs | -9.8 | — |
| Eureka | -7.9 | — |
| Parkway Central | -7.7 | — |
| MICDS | -6.7 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 5.7 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -5.6 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -4.8 | — |
| Belleville West | 4.4 | — |
| Notre Dame | 4.1 | — |
| Clayton | -3.8 | — |
| Edwardsville | -3.8 | — |
| Westminster | -3.0 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 3.0 | — |
| Fox High School | -2.8 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -2.8 | — |
| Oakville | -2.0 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -2.0 | — |
| Marquette | -1.9 | — |
| Lafayette | -1.6 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 1.6 | — |
| Kirkwood | -1.4 | — |
| Northwest | 1.2 | — |
| Webster Groves | -1.2 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 0.9 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 0.7 | — |
| Parkway South | -0.7 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | -0.6 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | -0.4 | — |
| St. Dominic | -0.4 | — |
| Parkway West | -0.4 | — |
| O'Fallon | -0.4 | — |
| Wentzville | 0.1 | — |
| Francis Howell | 0.1 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2026,
"team_name": "Lindbergh",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 24,
"current_composite_rank": 20,
"recommended_rank": 26,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 2,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 37.96,
"score_drop": 34.6,
"returning_production_share": 0.374,
"departure_loss_pct": 34.6,
"legacy_prior": 0.326,
"seniors_count": 9,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": "low_returning_heavy_loss;backtest_large_error",
"action_flag_codes": "low_returning_heavy_loss;backtest_large_error",
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 2,
"action_flag_count": 2,
"needs_board_review": "yes",
"review_priority": "high",
"regression_tracks": "post_hoc_regression_candidate;underclass_surge_or_replacement",
"board_note": "Recommend rank 26 (prior finish 24). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss, backtest_large_error. Suggested follow-up: post_hoc_regression_candidate; underclass_surge_or_replacement.",
"secondary_slot_delta": -1,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": "backtest_error_shrink",
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 26,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": null,
"actual_finish_rank": 21,
"projection_error": 5.0,
"is_backtest": true,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2025_26_backtest\", \"team_name\": \"Lindbergh\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 26 (prior finish 24). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss, backtest_large_error. Suggested follow-up: post_hoc_regression_candidate; underclass_surge_or_replacement.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.412\", \"final_rank\": \"\", \"flag_codes\": \"low_returning_heavy_loss;backtest_large_error\", \"flag_count\": \"2\", \"score_drop\": \"34.6\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.326\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"9\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"high\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"23.8\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"38.0\", \"projection_error\": \"5\", \"recommended_rank\": \"26\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.118\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"low_returning_heavy_loss;backtest_large_error\", \"action_flag_count\": \"2\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"2\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"24\", \"regression_tracks\": \"post_hoc_regression_candidate;underclass_surge_or_replacement\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"21\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"34.6\", \"needs_board_review\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.324\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"42.0\", \"projected_composite\": \"37.96\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"2\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.324\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"-1\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"True\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"20\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.294\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-8.75\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"feeder_pair_offense\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"65.41\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"26\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.238\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.374\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"backtest_error_shrink\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"24\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 24,
"projected_margin_rating": -8.75,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": null,
"projected_turnover_index": 65.41,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "lindbergh",
"effective_rank": 26,
"final_rank_resolved": 26
}