Lafayette
prior #11 · recommended #11 · final #11 legacy 1.00Margin strength
-3.3
vs top-16 avg -3.3
Projected margin
-6.0
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.550
as of 2025-05-30
Offense
59.54
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
58.17
domain stat
Possession
66.74
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #11
- Recommended (model)
- #11
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #11
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #15
- Projected margin rating
- -6.0
- Departure loss %
- 23.0%
- Returning production share
- 58.5%
- Departure loss
- 23.0%
- Seniors departing
- 4
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 1.00
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2024-25)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lily Smith | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 40.2% | 11.4% |
| Mary Hails | — | 17 | 12.1% | 8.0% | 12.7% | 0.8% | 6.1% |
| Tallulah Rock | — | 12 | 8.8% | 4.8% | 12.3% | 2.6% | 5.6% |
| Ella Griffin | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2024-25)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhianyn Mcintyre | offense | 15 | 57 | 37.2% | 52.5% | 7.9% | 0.0% / 7.9% | 19.4 |
| Lily Smith | goalie | 13 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 49.2% | 49.0% / 0.2% | 10.0 |
| Mary Hails | offense | 15 | 18 | 12.0% | 16.7% | 3.5% | 0.0% / 3.5% | 6.4 |
| Mary Sublette | offense | 15 | 41 | 26.6% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 0.0% / 2.4% | 6.2 |
| Tallulah Rock | offense | 13 | 14 | 8.8% | 16.2% | 5.3% | 0.0% / 5.3% | 6.0 |
| Lily Orso | offense | 15 | 23 | 12.6% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 0.0% / 4.1% | 3.9 |
| Julia Kottke | offense | 14 | 2 | 1.4% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 0.0% / 4.0% | 2.5 |
| Hailey Moranville | goalie | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% / 0.0% | 1.2 |
| Natalie Cunningham | offense | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.8% | 4.3% | 0.0% / 4.3% | 1.2 |
| Lucy Carroll | offense | 9 | 1 | 0.6% | 0.9% | 3.6% | 0.0% / 3.6% | 1.0 |
| Ella Minton | offense | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.3% | 0.0% / 3.3% | 0.7 |
| Hayden Miller | defense | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.7% | 0.0% / 2.7% | 0.6 |
| Sami Ortega | defense | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 0.0% / 2.0% | 0.4 |
| Emma Myers | offense | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.3 |
| Vivian Hussey | defense | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% / 0.8% | 0.2 |
| Mackenzie Kannel | offense | 3 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.2 |
| Eszter Willis | offense | 1 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.1 |
| Ella Griffin | offense | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.1 |
| Sophia Williams | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2026)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| John Burroughs | -8.2 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 7.3 | — |
| Eureka | -6.3 | — |
| Parkway Central | -6.1 | — |
| Belleville West | 6.1 | — |
| Notre Dame | 5.7 | — |
| MICDS | -5.1 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 4.7 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -4.0 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -3.2 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 3.2 | — |
| Northwest | 2.8 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 2.6 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 2.4 | — |
| Edwardsville | -2.2 | — |
| Clayton | -2.1 | — |
| Wentzville | 1.8 | — |
| Francis Howell | 1.7 | — |
| Lindbergh | 1.6 | — |
| Westminster | -1.4 | — |
| Fox High School | -1.2 | — |
| O'Fallon | 1.2 | — |
| St. Dominic | 1.2 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -1.2 | — |
| Parkway West | 1.2 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 1.2 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 1.0 | — |
| Parkway South | 0.9 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -0.4 | — |
| Webster Groves | 0.4 | — |
| Oakville | -0.3 | — |
| Marquette | -0.3 | — |
| Kirkwood | 0.2 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2026,
"team_name": "Lafayette",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 11,
"current_composite_rank": 15,
"recommended_rank": 11,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 0,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 46.05,
"score_drop": 23.0,
"returning_production_share": 0.585,
"departure_loss_pct": 23.0,
"legacy_prior": 1.0,
"seniors_count": 4,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": null,
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 0,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": null,
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 11,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": null,
"actual_finish_rank": 11,
"projection_error": 0.0,
"is_backtest": true,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2025_26_backtest\", \"team_name\": \"Lafayette\", \"board_note\": \"Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"\", \"flag_codes\": \"\", \"flag_count\": \"0\", \"score_drop\": \"23.0\", \"legacy_prior\": \"1.0\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"4\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"45.0\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"9.2\", \"projection_error\": \"0\", \"recommended_rank\": \"11\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.62\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"11\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"11\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"23.0\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.654\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"16.5\", \"projected_composite\": \"46.05\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.654\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"15\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.786\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-6.05\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"76.99\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"11\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.742\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.585\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"15\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 15,
"projected_margin_rating": -6.05,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": null,
"projected_turnover_index": 76.99,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "lafayette",
"effective_rank": 11,
"final_rank_resolved": 11
}