Lafayette
prior #11 · recommended #10 · final #10 legacy 1.00Margin strength
-5.7
vs top-16 avg -5.7
Projected margin
-6.5
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.522
as of 2026-05-30
Offense
57.15
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
54.59
domain stat
Possession
70.37
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #11
- Recommended (model)
- #10
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #10
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #12
- Projected margin rating
- -6.5
- Departure loss %
- 6.3%
- Returning production share
- 87.3%
- Departure loss
- 6.3%
- Seniors departing
- 3
- Awards points
- +14 returning · −3 departing
- Legacy prior
- 1.00
Awards
Departing
Ella Minton (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Hayden Miller (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Julia Kottke (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team)
Returning
Rhianyn Mcintyre (all state hm: Honorable Mention); Lily Orso (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Mary Sublette (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Rhianyn Mcintyre (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Jillian Trost (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Lucy Carroll (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Natalie Cunningham (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Sami Ortega (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention)
Departing players (2025-26)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Kottke | — | 21 | 15.2% | 11.0% | 15.5% | 2.4% | 6.1% |
| Hayden Miller | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Ella Minton | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2025-26)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhianyn Mcintyre | offense | 12 | 36 | 23.0% | 49.9% | 8.5% | 0.0% / 8.5% | 16.8 |
| Hailey Moranville | goalie | 15 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 55.2% | 53.5% / 1.7% | 10.6 |
| Julia Kottke | offense | 14 | 21 | 15.2% | 19.5% | 5.1% | 0.0% / 5.1% | 8.1 |
| Mary Sublette | offense | 15 | 43 | 31.4% | 0.0% | 2.3% | 0.0% / 2.3% | 6.7 |
| Lucy Carroll | offense | 15 | 12 | 7.5% | 16.3% | 4.7% | 0.0% / 4.7% | 5.8 |
| Lily Orso | offense | 14 | 20 | 12.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 0.0% / 3.0% | 3.4 |
| Jillian Trost | offense | 15 | 9 | 6.7% | 0.4% | 2.1% | 0.0% / 2.1% | 1.8 |
| Moya Brake | offense | 12 | 1 | 0.8% | 6.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% / 0.8% | 1.6 |
| Natalie Cunningham | offense | 13 | 1 | 0.8% | 0.8% | 4.0% | 0.0% / 4.0% | 1.1 |
| Sophia Tomaras | offense | 8 | 2 | 1.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 0.9 |
| Sami Ortega | offense | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.8% | 3.1% | 0.0% / 3.1% | 0.8 |
| Hayden Miller | defense | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.6% | 0.0% / 3.6% | 0.7 |
| Charlotte Huber | offense | 9 | 2 | 1.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.6 |
| Milana Vandergraff | offense | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 0.0% / 1.9% | 0.4 |
| Vivian Hussey | offense | 7 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% / 1.4% | 0.3 |
| Jess Sudhan | goalie | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% / 0.0% | 0.3 |
| Ella Minton | offense | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% / 1.2% | 0.2 |
| Hadley Orr | defense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.1 |
Projected matchups (2027)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Eureka | -7.2 | — |
| Wentzville | -6.7 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 6.2 | — |
| MICDS | -5.8 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 5.7 | — |
| Notre Dame | 5.0 | — |
| Westminster | -4.2 | — |
| Clayton | 4.2 | — |
| Parkway North | 3.8 | — |
| John Burroughs | -3.7 | — |
| Parkway Central | 3.6 | — |
| Parkway South | 3.5 | — |
| Belleville West | 3.4 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -3.4 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -3.2 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -3.0 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -2.9 | — |
| Francis Howell | 2.9 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 2.8 | — |
| Pattonville | 2.7 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 2.6 | — |
| Marquette | 2.4 | — |
| Lindbergh | 2.1 | — |
| Kirkwood | 2.1 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 2.0 | — |
| Edwardsville | -1.7 | — |
| Webster Groves | 1.6 | — |
| St. Dominic | 1.5 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 1.5 | — |
| Parkway West | 1.4 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 1.1 | — |
| Northwest | 1.0 | — |
| O'Fallon | 0.5 | — |
| Oakville | -0.3 | — |
| Fox High School | 0.1 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2027,
"team_name": "Lafayette",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 11,
"current_composite_rank": 15,
"recommended_rank": 10,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": -1,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 55.98,
"score_drop": 6.3,
"returning_production_share": 0.873,
"departure_loss_pct": 6.3,
"legacy_prior": 1.0,
"seniors_count": 3,
"awards_points": 17,
"departing_awards_points": 3,
"returning_awards_points": 14,
"flag_codes": null,
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 0,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": null,
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 10,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": 10,
"actual_finish_rank": null,
"projection_error": null,
"is_backtest": false,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"Lafayette\", \"avg_margin\": \"-1.53\", \"board_note\": \"Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"10\", \"flag_codes\": \"\", \"flag_count\": \"0\", \"margin_std\": \"9.55\", \"score_drop\": \"6.3\", \"top8_games\": \"6\", \"margin_wins\": \"6\", \"top16_games\": \"11\", \"legacy_prior\": \"1.0\", \"margin_games\": \"15\", \"awards_points\": \"17\", \"margin_losses\": \"9\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"3\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"1-5\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"3.6\", \"departing_awards\": \"Ella Minton (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Hayden Miller (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Julia Kottke (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team)\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"7.9\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"10\", \"returning_awards\": \"Rhianyn Mcintyre (all state hm: Honorable Mention); Lily Orso (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Mary Sublette (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Rhianyn Mcintyre (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Jillian Trost (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Lucy Carroll (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Natalie Cunningham (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Sami Ortega (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention)\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.48\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"-1\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"-1.13\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"10\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"11\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"-8.5\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"6.3\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.813\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"-5.73\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"7.24\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"9.4\", \"projected_composite\": \"55.98\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"-1\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.813\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"15\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.958\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"3\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-6.49\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"14\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"93.68\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"10\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.841\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.873\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"12\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 12,
"projected_margin_rating": -6.49,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": -5.73,
"projected_turnover_index": 93.68,
"departing_awards": "Ella Minton (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Hayden Miller (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Julia Kottke (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team)",
"returning_awards": "Rhianyn Mcintyre (all state hm: Honorable Mention); Lily Orso (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Mary Sublette (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Rhianyn Mcintyre (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Jillian Trost (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Lucy Carroll (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Natalie Cunningham (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Sami Ortega (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention)",
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "lafayette",
"effective_rank": 10,
"final_rank_resolved": 10
}