Ladue Horton Watkins
prior #4 · recommended #4 · final #4 legacy 1.00Margin strength
3.8
vs top-16 avg 3.8
Projected margin
-0.7
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.613
as of 2025-05-30
Offense
64.56
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
73.34
domain stat
Possession
67.31
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #4
- Recommended (model)
- #5
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #4
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #6
- Projected margin rating
- -0.7
- Departure loss %
- 37.2%
- Returning production share
- 35.9%
- Departure loss
- 37.2%
- Seniors departing
- 9
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 1.00
Action-flagged
- · low_returning_heavy_loss
Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement
Secondary regression: legacy_depth_floor;returning_feeder_core;returning_draw_control
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2024-25)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erika Ackerman | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 46.6% | 12.7% |
| Izzy Dodson | — | 37 | 21.5% | 17.4% | 24.7% | 2.6% | 12.2% |
| Yael Sabin | — | 58 | 33.2% | 29.2% | 11.2% | 0.0% | 11.0% |
| Norah Bullock | — | 0 | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.3% | 0.9% |
| Zoe Tenenbaum | — | 0 | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Lauren Clay | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Audrey Mentle | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Georgia Bland | — | 2 | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ivana Kolev | — | 1 | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2024-25)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicky Derdoy | offense | 14 | 38 | 24.3% | 36.8% | 11.4% | 0.0% / 11.4% | 15.5 |
| Erika Ackerman | goalie | 14 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 55.6% | 54.8% / 0.8% | 14.3 |
| Izzy Dodson | offense | 14 | 35 | 21.5% | 28.6% | 5.3% | 0.0% / 5.3% | 11.8 |
| Yael Sabin | offense | 14 | 54 | 33.2% | 15.2% | 1.8% | 0.0% / 1.8% | 10.9 |
| Colette Brennan | offense | 14 | 20 | 11.9% | 17.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% / 5.9% | 7.7 |
| Norah Bullock | offense | 14 | 1 | 0.3% | 0.0% | 5.9% | 0.0% / 5.9% | 1.6 |
| Lyla Sandler | offense | 12 | 8 | 4.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% / 0.7% | 1.2 |
| Zoe Tenenbaum | offense | 14 | 1 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 3.9% | 0.0% / 3.9% | 1.2 |
| Lauren Clay | defense | 14 | 1 | 0.3% | 0.0% | 2.9% | 0.0% / 2.9% | 0.8 |
| Audrey Mentle | defense | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.1% | 0.0% / 2.1% | 0.5 |
| Georgia Bland | offense | 10 | 3 | 1.2% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% / 1.0% | 0.5 |
| Trudy Richardson | offense | 11 | 2 | 1.0% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% / 1.1% | 0.5 |
| Tatum Curran | offense | 8 | 1 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% / 0.7% | 0.4 |
| Joelle Judaken | offense | 12 | 1 | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% / 0.8% | 0.3 |
| Ivana Kolev | offense | 3 | 2 | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.2 |
| Irene Murphy | offense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.1 |
| Darcy Graftenreed | goalie | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% / 0.0% | 0.1 |
| Sadie Steinbach | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.0 |
| Claudia Gettins | defense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.0 |
| Avery Murray | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2026)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Word | 10.5 | blowout |
| Belleville West | 9.3 | — |
| Notre Dame | 8.9 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 7.9 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 6.4 | — |
| Northwest | 6.0 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 5.8 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 5.6 | — |
| Wentzville | 5.0 | — |
| John Burroughs | -4.9 | — |
| Francis Howell | 4.9 | — |
| Lindbergh | 4.8 | — |
| O'Fallon | 4.5 | — |
| Parkway West | 4.5 | — |
| St. Dominic | 4.4 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 4.4 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 4.2 | — |
| Parkway South | 4.1 | — |
| Webster Groves | 3.7 | — |
| Kirkwood | 3.4 | — |
| Lafayette | 3.2 | — |
| Eureka | -3.0 | — |
| Oakville | 2.9 | — |
| Marquette | 2.9 | — |
| Parkway Central | -2.9 | — |
| Visitation Academy | 2.8 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | 2.0 | — |
| Fox High School | 2.0 | — |
| Westminster | 1.9 | — |
| MICDS | -1.9 | — |
| Clayton | 1.1 | — |
| Edwardsville | 1.0 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -0.8 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2026,
"team_name": "Ladue Horton Watkins",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 4,
"current_composite_rank": 5,
"recommended_rank": 5,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 1,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 41.61,
"score_drop": 37.2,
"returning_production_share": 0.359,
"departure_loss_pct": 37.2,
"legacy_prior": 1.0,
"seniors_count": 9,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": "low_returning_heavy_loss",
"action_flag_codes": "low_returning_heavy_loss",
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 1,
"action_flag_count": 1,
"needs_board_review": "yes",
"review_priority": "medium",
"regression_tracks": "underclass_surge_or_replacement",
"board_note": "Recommend rank 5 (prior finish 4). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement.",
"secondary_slot_delta": -2,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": "legacy_depth_floor;returning_feeder_core;returning_draw_control",
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 4,
"adjusted_rank_delta": -1,
"league_order_rank": null,
"actual_finish_rank": 2,
"projection_error": 3.0,
"is_backtest": true,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2025_26_backtest\", \"team_name\": \"Ladue Horton Watkins\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 5 (prior finish 4). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.27\", \"final_rank\": \"\", \"flag_codes\": \"low_returning_heavy_loss\", \"flag_count\": \"1\", \"score_drop\": \"37.2\", \"legacy_prior\": \"1.0\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"9\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"medium\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"45.0\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"38.0\", \"projection_error\": \"3\", \"recommended_rank\": \"5\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.377\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"low_returning_heavy_loss\", \"action_flag_count\": \"1\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"4\", \"regression_tracks\": \"underclass_surge_or_replacement\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"2\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"37.2\", \"needs_board_review\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.544\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"-1\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"30.2\", \"projected_composite\": \"41.61\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"1\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.544\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"-2\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"True\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"5\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.365\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-0.69\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"feeder_pair_offense;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"62.82\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"4\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.371\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.359\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"legacy_depth_floor;returning_feeder_core;returning_draw_control\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"6\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 6,
"projected_margin_rating": -0.69,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": null,
"projected_turnover_index": 62.82,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "ladue-horton-watkins",
"effective_rank": 4,
"final_rank_resolved": 4
}