Ladue Horton Watkins
prior #2 · recommended #2 · final #2 legacy 1.00Margin strength
2.4
vs top-16 avg 2.4
Projected margin
-1.2
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.652
as of 2026-05-30
Offense
65.10
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
70.41
domain stat
Possession
73.90
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #2
- Recommended (model)
- #2
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #2
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #7
- Projected margin rating
- -1.2
- Departure loss %
- 29.9%
- Returning production share
- 51.1%
- Departure loss
- 29.9%
- Seniors departing
- 5
- Awards points
- +18 returning · −22 departing
- Legacy prior
- 1.00
Action-flagged
- · award_talent_loss
Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review
Awards
Departing
Colette Brennan (all state first: 1st Team); Vicky Derdoy (all state first: 1st Team); Colette Brennan (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Vicky Derdoy (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Claudia Gettins (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Joelle Judaken (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team)
Returning
Melia Saffold (all state first: 1st Team); Lyla Sandler (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Melia Saffold (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Charley Patterson (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Darcy Graftenreed (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Irene Murphy (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Lillian Schappe (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Sadie Steinbach (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Trudy Richardson (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team)
Departing players (2025-26)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colette Brennan | — | 31 | 15.0% | 10.8% | 50.6% | 4.1% | 15.4% |
| Vicky Derdoy | — | 63 | 29.9% | 25.7% | 26.5% | 7.5% | 14.0% |
| Joelle Judaken | — | 13 | 6.3% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| Adela Gingrich | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Claudia Gettins | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2025-26)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colette Brennan | offense | 17 | 31 | 15.0% | 54.6% | 6.8% | 0.0% / 6.8% | 17.2 |
| Vicky Derdoy | offense | 16 | 54 | 29.9% | 30.4% | 10.1% | 0.0% / 10.1% | 16.1 |
| Lillian Schappe | goalie | 15 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 40.5% | 38.6% / 1.9% | 10.0 |
| Irene Murphy | offense | 16 | 16 | 8.7% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% / 3.1% | 4.8 |
| Sadie Steinbach | offense | 17 | 26 | 12.6% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 0.0% / 3.4% | 4.6 |
| Lyla Sandler | offense | 17 | 31 | 16.7% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 0.0% / 1.9% | 4.3 |
| Darcy Graftenreed | goalie | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 17.1% | 16.4% / 0.7% | 4.2 |
| Melia Saffold | offense | 15 | 2 | 0.7% | 0.2% | 8.7% | 0.0% / 8.7% | 2.4 |
| Joelle Judaken | offense | 13 | 15 | 6.3% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 1.7 |
| Trudy Richardson | offense | 16 | 8 | 4.6% | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.0% / 1.7% | 1.5 |
| Eliana Grebrehiwet | offense | 12 | 6 | 2.5% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% / 0.7% | 0.8 |
| Avery Murray | offense | 7 | 3 | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 0.6 |
| Charley Patterson | defense | 11 | 1 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 0.0% / 1.4% | 0.4 |
| Reade Stokes | defense | 9 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% / 1.1% | 0.3 |
| Claudia Gettins | defense | 8 | 1 | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 0.2 |
| Emma Landsness | offense | 3 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.2 |
| Adela Gingrich | offense | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.2 |
| Emme Shapiro | defense | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 0.1 |
| Sloan Gingrich | offense | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.1 |
Projected matchups (2027)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Word | 9.4 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 8.9 | — |
| Notre Dame | 8.1 | — |
| Clayton | 7.4 | — |
| Parkway North | 7.0 | — |
| Parkway Central | 6.8 | — |
| Parkway South | 6.7 | — |
| Belleville West | 6.6 | — |
| Francis Howell | 6.1 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 5.9 | — |
| Pattonville | 5.9 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 5.8 | — |
| Marquette | 5.6 | — |
| Lindbergh | 5.3 | — |
| Kirkwood | 5.3 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 5.2 | — |
| Webster Groves | 4.8 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 4.7 | — |
| St. Dominic | 4.7 | — |
| Parkway West | 4.6 | — |
| Northwest | 4.2 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 4.2 | — |
| Eureka | -4.0 | — |
| O'Fallon | 3.7 | — |
| Wentzville | -3.5 | — |
| Fox High School | 3.3 | — |
| Lafayette | 3.2 | — |
| Oakville | 2.9 | — |
| MICDS | -2.6 | — |
| Edwardsville | 1.5 | — |
| Westminster | -1.0 | — |
| John Burroughs | -0.5 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | 0.3 | — |
| Visitation Academy | 0.2 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -0.2 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2027,
"team_name": "Ladue Horton Watkins",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 2,
"current_composite_rank": 7,
"recommended_rank": 2,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 0,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 49.62,
"score_drop": 29.9,
"returning_production_share": 0.511,
"departure_loss_pct": 29.9,
"legacy_prior": 1.0,
"seniors_count": 5,
"awards_points": 40,
"departing_awards_points": 22,
"returning_awards_points": 18,
"flag_codes": "award_talent_loss",
"action_flag_codes": "award_talent_loss",
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 1,
"action_flag_count": 1,
"needs_board_review": "yes",
"review_priority": "medium",
"regression_tracks": "award_talent_review",
"board_note": "Recommend rank 2 (prior finish 2). Flagged for board review: award_talent_loss. Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 2,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": 2,
"actual_finish_rank": null,
"projection_error": null,
"is_backtest": false,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"Ladue Horton Watkins\", \"avg_margin\": \"4.06\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 2 (prior finish 2). Flagged for board review: award_talent_loss. Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.091\", \"final_rank\": \"2\", \"flag_codes\": \"award_talent_loss\", \"flag_count\": \"1\", \"margin_std\": \"6.95\", \"score_drop\": \"29.9\", \"top8_games\": \"9\", \"margin_wins\": \"13\", \"top16_games\": \"14\", \"legacy_prior\": \"1.0\", \"margin_games\": \"17\", \"awards_points\": \"40\", \"margin_losses\": \"4\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"5\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"5-4\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"medium\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"11.6\", \"departing_awards\": \"Colette Brennan (all state first: 1st Team); Vicky Derdoy (all state first: 1st Team); Colette Brennan (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Vicky Derdoy (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Claudia Gettins (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Joelle Judaken (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team)\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"34.3\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"2\", \"returning_awards\": \"Melia Saffold (all state first: 1st Team); Lyla Sandler (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Melia Saffold (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Charley Patterson (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Darcy Graftenreed (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Irene Murphy (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Lillian Schappe (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Sadie Steinbach (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Trudy Richardson (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team)\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.393\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"award_talent_loss\", \"action_flag_count\": \"1\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"3.53\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"2\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"2\", \"regression_tracks\": \"award_talent_review\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"-0.89\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"29.9\", \"needs_board_review\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.149\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"2.43\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"6.57\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"42.0\", \"projected_composite\": \"49.62\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.149\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"True\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"7\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.455\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"22\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-1.16\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"18\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"feeder_pair_offense;late_underclass_surge_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"70.11\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"2\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.412\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.511\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"7\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 7,
"projected_margin_rating": -1.16,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": 2.43,
"projected_turnover_index": 70.11,
"departing_awards": "Colette Brennan (all state first: 1st Team); Vicky Derdoy (all state first: 1st Team); Colette Brennan (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Vicky Derdoy (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Claudia Gettins (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Joelle Judaken (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team)",
"returning_awards": "Melia Saffold (all state first: 1st Team); Lyla Sandler (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Melia Saffold (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Charley Patterson (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Darcy Graftenreed (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Irene Murphy (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Lillian Schappe (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Sadie Steinbach (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Trudy Richardson (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team)",
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "ladue-horton-watkins",
"effective_rank": 2,
"final_rank_resolved": 2
}