Kirkwood
prior #22 · recommended #22 · final #22 legacy 0.91Margin strength
-4.5
vs top-16 avg -4.5
Projected margin
-6.4
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.483
as of 2025-05-30
Offense
56.51
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
52.49
domain stat
Possession
48.93
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #22
- Recommended (model)
- #22
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #22
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #16
- Projected margin rating
- -6.4
- Departure loss %
- 15.8%
- Returning production share
- 51.0%
- Departure loss
- 15.8%
- Seniors departing
- 2
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.91
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2024-25)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elise Arthur | — | 21 | 23.9% | 20.0% | 40.5% | 3.8% | 15.8% |
| Charlotte Golden | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2024-25)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elise Arthur | utility | 11 | 27 | 23.8% | 44.1% | 6.2% | 0.0% / 6.2% | 11.9 |
| Mia Campbell | utility | 11 | 35 | 33.1% | 24.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% / 5.9% | 11.1 |
| Caroline Huey | utility | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% / 0.0% | 10.1 |
| Lily Dodd-Ruesing | utility | 11 | 30 | 25.6% | 24.1% | 3.7% | 0.0% / 3.7% | 9.1 |
| Addison Redmond | utility | 10 | 1 | 1.0% | 2.8% | 9.6% | 0.0% / 9.6% | 2.4 |
| Tiernan Luby | utility | 11 | 7 | 6.0% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 0.0% / 4.5% | 2.3 |
| Carly Codd | utility | 6 | 3 | 3.0% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 0.0% / 1.8% | 0.9 |
| Avery Mussleman | utility | 7 | 2 | 1.9% | 0.0% | 2.4% | 0.0% / 2.4% | 0.8 |
| Kelly Boudreau | utility | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.9% | 3.7% | 0.0% / 3.7% | 0.8 |
| Elsa Bischoff | utility | 6 | 2 | 2.5% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% / 1.1% | 0.7 |
| Riley Devers | utility | 3 | 3 | 2.5% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.6 |
| Madelyn Fogle | utility | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.0% / 1.4% | 0.4 |
| Gianna Smith | utility | 5 | 1 | 0.7% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% / 1.0% | 0.3 |
| Issaline Tiburzi | utility | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% / 1.0% | 0.2 |
| Brynn Hubbard | utility | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% / 0.8% | 0.1 |
| Charlotte Golden | utility | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.1 |
| Delaney Ruyle | utility | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.1 |
| Anna Ullery | utility | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.1 |
| Addie Glaser | utility | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.1 |
| Meg Parson | utility | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2026)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| John Burroughs | -8.4 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 7.1 | — |
| Eureka | -6.5 | — |
| Parkway Central | -6.3 | — |
| Belleville West | 5.9 | — |
| Notre Dame | 5.5 | — |
| MICDS | -5.3 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 4.5 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -4.2 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -3.4 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 3.0 | — |
| Northwest | 2.6 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 2.4 | — |
| Clayton | -2.4 | — |
| Edwardsville | -2.4 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 2.2 | — |
| Westminster | -1.6 | — |
| Wentzville | 1.6 | — |
| Francis Howell | 1.5 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -1.4 | — |
| Fox High School | -1.4 | — |
| Lindbergh | 1.4 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 1.0 | — |
| O'Fallon | 1.0 | — |
| Parkway West | 1.0 | — |
| St. Dominic | 1.0 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 0.8 | — |
| Parkway South | 0.7 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -0.6 | — |
| Marquette | -0.5 | — |
| Oakville | -0.5 | — |
| Webster Groves | 0.2 | — |
| Lafayette | -0.2 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2026,
"team_name": "Kirkwood",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 22,
"current_composite_rank": 18,
"recommended_rank": 22,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 0,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 44.07,
"score_drop": 15.8,
"returning_production_share": 0.51,
"departure_loss_pct": 15.8,
"legacy_prior": 0.912,
"seniors_count": 2,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": null,
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 0,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": null,
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 22,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": null,
"actual_finish_rank": 23,
"projection_error": -1.0,
"is_backtest": true,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2025_26_backtest\", \"team_name\": \"Kirkwood\", \"board_note\": \"Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"\", \"flag_codes\": \"\", \"flag_count\": \"0\", \"score_drop\": \"15.8\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.912\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"2\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"3.8\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"16.0\", \"projection_error\": \"-1\", \"recommended_rank\": \"22\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.135\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"22\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"23\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"15.8\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.548\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"29.0\", \"projected_composite\": \"44.07\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.548\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"True\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"18\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.667\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-6.4\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"feeder_pair_offense;late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"84.2\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"22\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.691\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.51\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"16\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 16,
"projected_margin_rating": -6.4,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": null,
"projected_turnover_index": 84.2,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "kirkwood",
"effective_rank": 22,
"final_rank_resolved": 22
}